Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

ONE MINUTE CHARTS

I think I'm probably looking to enter in the direction of the slope of the 16- and 20-minute baselines when candlesticks pull back to the contrary band of the 34-minute price range envelope at 0.10% to 0.30% deviation.

However, if an asset is sloping too sharply, I'll need to settle for pullbacks to the contrary band of the eight-minute SMA envelope at 0.04% deviation.

Still, when a pair is trending with monstrous momentum, I'll have to settle for pullbacks to the contrary band of the three-minute SMA envelope at 0.02% deviation.

If a foreign currency pair is ascending or descending even faster than that (i.e., the exterior of all three envelopes) there probably won't be any pullbacks.
 
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Post #231 is getting into what amounts to some rather "microscopic" trading. When you consider all that is said there and you look at some five-minute charts, you see that the 20-minute (and faster) trend line(s) can do an awful lot of vacillating! Even the 34-minute price range envelope tends to wobble at times—in fact, a lot of times.

To escape this unstable environment, we can sit back and focus on those periods when candlesticks venture to the "wrong side of a sloping five-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation, and plan to enter positions when the candles make contact with the contrary band of the 34-minute price range envelope at 0.10% (up to 0.30%) deviation.
 
expiated said:
Plan to enter positions when the candles make contact with the contrary band of the 34-minute price range envelope at 0.10% (up to 0.30%) deviation.
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As this week's trading commences, I find myself forming the impression that the 34-minute price flow is the dominant "current" with respect to intraday price action.

Also, if and when I am able to return to micromanaging my positions, it's pretty clear that the way to go is to track the progress of the 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation (and if I wish to be extra careful...as confirmed or validated by the 16- and/or 20-minute baselines).
 
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expiated said:
As this week's trading commences, I find myself forming the impression that the 34-minute price flow is the dominant "current" with respect to intraday price action.
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Screenshot_2.png

So then, when candlesticks pull back to the 34-minute baseline, it will probably take 10 to 30 minutes to determine whether it is just an intraday pull back (in which case, you should reenter your long or short position, as appropriate) or a fully-fledged intraday reversal (in which case, you should begin trading in the opposite direction).

(I believe this concludes my summarization of what I have observed over the past five years.)
 
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expiated said:
Even the 34-minute price range envelope tends to wobble at times—in fact, a lot of times.
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So, I plotted the 70-minute baseline on the chart as well, to display a more stable path, and accompanied it with its SMA envelope at 0.30% deviation.
 
MONTHLY PERSPECTIVE:

Though AUDJPY's month-to-month trend turned bullish in May, the rate is currently headed south after exceeding the "monthly threshold" in June.

Ditto for EURJPY, except that it has been bullish since February.

USDJPY, and especially GBPJPY, also have a similar look.

So, given that GBPUSD is now near the top of its projected monthly price range, will it come back from the 1.0375 level sometime before July 31, 2023?

GBPUSDH1.png

  • The projections for AUDUSD are between 0.6836 and 0.6890.
  • For EURUSD, they are between 1.1200 and 1.1261.
USDJPY has also already reached its "rejection zone," though it has almost 400 pips to go before it can exit out the bottom...

USDJPYH1.png


At 0.8656, USDCHF has reached both the top AND the bottom of its monthly support zone, in that its more extreme AND less extreme projections have converged. So then, with over half the month remaining, I will be very interested to see if the pair turns north before the last day of July.
 
HOURLY PERSPECTIVE:

After a five- or six-day journey south, at this hour at least, AUDJPY's day-to-day trend appears to be turning north.

EURJPY might be in the process of doing the same, though there is no confirmation as of yet.

AUDUSD has transitioned from neutral to very bullish. EURUSD did the same three or four days ago.

According to the numbers, GBPJPY is still bearish, so watch for any signs of confirmation that the present bullish leg north is merely a temporary pullback.
 
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I should have been typing these forecasts in my Compare and Contrast thread, but so be it...

From an hourly perspective, the two Aussie pairs I follow have reached the upper level of their projected daily price ranges before the New York session has even opened. I will therefore be interested to see whether the two of them turn south before the New York session's closing bell.
 
expiated said:
According to the numbers, GBPJPY is still bearish, so watch for any signs of confirmation that the present bullish leg north is merely a temporary pullback.
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The prospect of this being a temporary pullback appears less and less like as the rate continues to pull more and more measures north.
 
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