Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

[expiated]

Seeing as how, given its present trajectory, AUDUSD could certainly (theoretically) be above the 0.6775 strike price by the end of the week...

...and in light of the fact that I've already made up my earlier loss and realized profit through a number of other trades and established that weekly options don't make sense for me personally, I'm going to go ahead and exit my remaining AUDUSD position now, and not wait until Friday to see what would have been the ultimate outcome...

 

[expiated]

THURSDAY | JULY 18, 2024

WEDNESDAY | JULY 3, 2024

"Returning to the debate as to whether Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) should use the 20-minute baseline or the 20-minute envelope, the answer is to use BOTH!"

Actually, the answer is... use the slope of the 30-minute baseline and the positional relationship that the 16-minute baseline has with respect to it—recognizing that the most bankable price action takes place when the trailing/contrarian edge/band of the five-minute price range envelope at 0.02% deviation is outpacing a sloping 16-minute baseline on the leading/advancing side of the actionable price flow.

"And in fact, the envelope has two important levels: at 0.06% and 0.09% deviation."

The 16-minute price flow channel at 0.09% deviation replaces the 20-minute envelope at 0.09% deviation.

"I think I recently wrote somewhere that the argument over whether the 20- or 40-minute measure should be regarded as being in control at the intraday level was settled, but in case I didn't or if I wrote something different...it is the 20-minute baseline that has emerged as the winner."

No, it would seem that the 40-minute measure is equally as important. Recent observations suggested the 90-minute baseline conveys where rates are ultimately/eventually headed at the intraday level; but it turns out that the 90-minute measure merely confirms what is revealed by 40 minutes.

"To identify intraday reversals, I now look to the consensus opinion the the 6-, 8½-, 11½-, 14¼- and 20-minute baselines to make that determination—but it is the 20-minute baseline that CONFIRMS the maneuver.

"The role of the 40-minute measure is to define key "statistical support and resistance" levels at the upper and lower band of the corresponding price range envelope at 0.06% deviation."

The role of the 40-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation is to define the maximum degree to which price can retreat behind the 40-minute baseline before pulling the actionable intraday price action in the opposite direction.

So then ideally, you want to be trading in the direction recommended by the gist of the overall general directional tendency of the (sometimes fluctuating) 40-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation, as confirmed by the slope of the more stable (but slightly lagging) 90-minute baseline. Hopefully, the 20-minute baseline will be angled in the same direction—though ultimately, in the immediate time frame, it will be the trajectories of, and the relationship between, the five-minute price range envelope at 0.02% deviation and the 16-minute baseline that will dictate precisely when you should be entering and exiting positions.

Given that these measures control the decision making process when it comes to day/intraday trading, longer-term crucial (support/resistance) levels like those mentioned below can essentially be ignored given that whether or not candlesticks are rejected upon reaching such boundaries will be made obvious from the faster baselines and envelopes cited above (in red).

"Other crucial levels are found at 0.10%, 0.15% and 0.23% deviation levels of the 90-minute channel; and at the 0.20% and 0.30% deviation level of the three-hour channel, whose corresponding baseline is the arbiter of the day-to-day bias/sentiment/trend."

 

[expiated]

WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 4, 2024 | 11:20 PM PST

So, in the five years since I established this thread, I have concluded that setting a 25-pip minimum profit requirement is total folly, at least when it comes to the Forex market, and with respect to a trader whose desire is to generate profits on a daily basis. In the final analysis, it is my opinion that you take what the market gives you. If that's 25 pips...great. If it's 100 pips or more, fantastic! And if it's a mere three pips, then so be it.

I do not disagree with what I wrote about a year ago. However, as developments this week unfold, they leave me thinking that, if one identifies the "right" factors to monitor, executing trades that garner only three pips can become a rarity, and entering positions that lead to a 25-pip profit at a minimum can become the norm.

The trick is simply in putting together the best combination of measures for the job. It's as simple (or as difficult) as that.

 

[expiated]

I'm finished developing Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) and am today considering options for organizing my time to best trade the system. In glancing at a typical chart and when my trade alerts sounded (see below) it initially looks like I should plan to spend up to about four or five hours monitoring a given position, and four or five hours waiting for the next move once a given pair goes into (range bound) consolidation, accumulation or distribution.