Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

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WEDNESDAY | JULY 3, 2024
More Clarity Regarding Forex Day Trading

Returning to the debate as to whether Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) should use the 20-minute baseline or the 20-minute envelope, the answer is to use BOTH!

Actually, the envelope has two important levels: at 0.06% and 0.09% deviation.

I think I recently wrote somewhere that the argument over whether the 20- or 40-minute measure should be regarded as being in control at the intraday level was settled, but in case I didn't or if I wrote something different...it is the 20-minute baseline that has emerged as the winner.

To identify intraday reversals, I now look to the consensus opinion the the 6-, 8½-, 11½-, 14¼- and 20-minute baselines to make that determination—but it is the 20-minute baseline that CONFIRMS the maneuver.

The role of the 40-minute measure is to define key "statistical support and resistance" levels at the upper and lower band of the corresponding price range envelope at 0.06% deviation.

Other crucial levels are found at 0.10%, 0.15% and 0.23% deviation levels of the 90-minute channel; and at the 0.20% and 0.30% deviation level of the three-hour channel, whose corresponding baseline is the arbiter of the day-to-day bias/sentiment/trend.

(The weekly trend is conveyed by the 12-hour baseline, as confirmed by the more stable and trustworthy, but somewhat lagging 16-hour measure.)

 

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SUNDAY | JULY 14, 2024

Other crucial levels are found at 0.10%, 0.15% and 0.23% deviation levels of the 90-minute channel; and at the 0.20% and 0.30% deviation level of the three-hour channel, whose corresponding baseline is the arbiter of the day-to-day bias/sentiment/trend. (The weekly trend is conveyed by the 12-hour baseline, as confirmed by the more stable and trustworthy, but somewhat lagging 16-hour measure.)

It appears to me that helpful forecasts can probably be made by evaluating Forex market structure in terms of the 24-, 12- and four-hour price flows and ranges. The next few comments, if all goes as planned, will me made in an attempt to determine whether this might actually be true. (Again, the premise of this thread/journal was basically to aim for returns of at least 25 pips' if and when the market should happen to offer such opportunities.)

First, the numbers are telling me to ignore all the yen pairs because they've gone totally bonkers—out of their freaking minds!

USDCAD is looking at measures that are essentially neutral, so provided this continues to be the case, it would suggest selling the pair up around the 1.3645 neighborhood, and buying it down around 1.3606.

AUDUSD will become a buy candidate should it ever opt to exit a bearish pullback somewhere below the 0.6779 level. On the other hand, its bullish day-to-day sentiment will have to be cancelled if price falls below 0.6748.

The same is true of EURUSD below 1.0893, but it loses its bullish momentum under 1.0842.

Ditto GBPUSD at the 1.2968 and 1.2886 levels.

EURGBP will become a sell candidate should it ever opt to exit a bullish pullback somewhere above the 0.8401 level. However, its bearish day-to-day bias will have to be nullified if price climbs above 0.8435.

 

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SUNDAY | JULY 14, 2024

Seeing as how you are no longer considering new tools to use and are merely looking to optimize capitalizing on the ones already in your employ, I think you are likely to have extra time this week to begin dabbling in the purchase of Nadex WEEKLY binary options, possibly with an extremely high success rate.

As an initial strategy, I see significant promise in entering short positions when the upper band of the outer black "snake" flattens out and the upper band of the thinner inner "worm" forms a dome when you see the green measure(s) sloping downward; and entering long positions when the lower band of the outer black snake flattens out and the lower band of the thinner inner worm forms a bowl, provided the green measure(s) are sloping upward.

 

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Current market structure suggests to me that AUDUSD will be headed away from the weekly in-the-money strike price of 0.6725.

 

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AUDUSD will become a buy candidate should it ever opt to exit a bearish pullback somewhere below the 0.6779 level. On the other hand, its bullish day-to-day sentiment will have to be cancelled if price falls below 0.6748.

Let's see where this ultimately ends up...

 

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EURUSD will become a buy candidate should it ever opt to exit a bearish pullback somewhere below the 1.0893 level, but it will lose its bullish momentum if it chooses to crawl under 1.0842.

My numbers ascribe a trajectory to EURUSD similar to that of AUDUSD...

(I should probably lower my take-profit target to just below the previous local maximum.)

 

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Current market structure suggests to me that AUDUSD will be headed away from the weekly in-the-money strike price of 0.6725.

Today's market structure suggests that AUDUSD is now headed toward the weekly in-the-money strike price of 0.6725...

This necessitated the purchase of in-the-money put contracts with a strike price of 0.6775.

So now is it possible to also purchase AUDUSD knock-outs in such a manner as to still profit, or at least minimize losses, if either of the contracts is out-of-the-money at the end of the week?

 

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Today's market structure suggests that AUDUSD is now headed toward the weekly in-the-money strike price of 0.6725...

I exited my first binary option position with a -$4,440.00 loss. I then pocketed the $700 of available profit from my knock-out position to bring my loss down to -$3,740. I calculate my second binary option position, assuming it is still in-the-money at the closing bell on Friday, will return $2,624.00. That will still leave me with a -$1,116 loss, so let me see if I can fix that between now and the end of the week.

 

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My numbers suggest that AUDUSD's three-day price flow is still bullish, with ultimate support pegged at approximately 0.6698 (and rising).

If this is valid AND doesn't change, the purchase of 200 in-the-money binary option contracts with a 0.6700 strike price set for expiry 20 hours from now should hypothetically/theoretically put me back in profit territory.

 

[expiated]

Seeing as how you are no longer considering new tools to use and are merely looking to optimize capitalizing on the ones already in your employ, I think you are likely to have extra time this week to begin dabbling in the purchase of Nadex WEEKLY binary options, possibly with an extremely high success rate.

With the first contract leading to a loss, so much for the extremely high success rate. Moreover, the fact that I just wiped out all of my still remaining loss in the last 90 minutes with the purchase of two-hour binary option contracts (without my having to wait or depend on the weekly and daily contracts still in progress) begs the question: Why bother with the weeklies?

Nonetheless, considering when and how things turned bad on my original purchase DID result in this short-lived endeavor producing a foundational graphical framework (see below) I can take and go back to compare to my already existing day trading chart configurations.