Due to demo trading binary options through IQ Option, I returned to using NPP for scalping purposes, and in the process of adapting the system to a different broker's platform, ended up tightening my configuration even more so that it is now extremely clear when I should reverse from long to short positions and vice versa, and exactly where I might expect to run into "statistical" support and resistance...
Numerical Price Prediction Challenge
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Are you still trading with binary options? This industry is complete scam, no?
NADEX is not a scam, but I hate their platform and I hate their payout structure. At this point in time, I am in no way considering trading through their exchange. Presently, I am still seriously considering IQ Option. Thus far, I have been able to achieve an 85% to 90%+ success rate given whatever venue I have chosen to explore. If and when I am able to do the same at IQ Option (if ever) I will deposit $10 cash to determine whether they actually will accept me (a U.S. resident) as a customer. If so, and if and when I am able to parlay that initial deposit into a $100 balance, I will attempt to make a withdrawal to see if there are any problems. If not, I will continue to trade there in September, when I return to full-time trading, God willing. (I would say that anyone unable to achieve about an 80% success rate [at least] should stay away from binary options. Otherwise, it probably IS likely to be a losing proposition!)
Wednesday / October 2, 2019
I am no longer making any modifications/improvements to my trading protocol, so I am going to begin posting a summary of the system in multiple locations so I can find it easily should I discover I have drifted away from my “winning ways” at any point in the future and need to therefore refer back to what I was doing before that was working.
As currently implemented, my approach is an offshoot of Numerical Price Prediction which I am calling: Dynamic Price Range Forex Trading Strategy.
It is based on the biblical principles of testing everything and holding fast to that which is good and knowing how to judge the signs of the times.
Much of this involved looking at historical data to analyze which moving averages in a given time frame foreshadowed rising prices virtually every time they evidenced an upward trajectory, or were followed by falling prices just about every time they evidenced a downward slope—where the association between the two phenomena produced a statistically significant positive correlation (as close to 100% as possible) and then apply those same measures in the present to achieve successful outcomes.
As a result of this process, each currency pair was assigned an “orbit,” with the thought that just as the numerous systems, patterns, currents, rotations, and forces observed on our planet are all subject to the same overall trajectory as the earth revolves around the sun—currency pairs too gravitate toward an ultimate destination via a specific circuit revealed by their orbits.
However, such “revolutions” do not fit standard moving averages and must therefore be represented by uniquely, painstakingly selected ones. Due to their very nature, a trader should (hypothetically) always win in the end so long as he or she plots a course in the direction of a given asset’s orbit.
Near the end of its development, the main idea was to use technical analysis to make market forecasts in roughly the same manner meteorologists use computer models to predict the weather.
This amounted to noting precise, up-to-date, quantitative information about market conditions, and interpreting the data to make accurate projections, except instead of relying on factors such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, cloud formation, and wind direction/velocity; my measurements are gathered on trend lines, market structure, average price ranges, historical support/resistance levels, and repetitive price patterns to simulate the equations, the wave functions and representations, and the grid point, spectral and/or coordinate models used in weather forecasting.
However, as with numerical weather prediction, there are intrinsic predictability limitations leading to error growth with time, so I use this approach almost exclusively for pseudo-swing and intraday trading, evaluating how all the above factors interact and relate to one another to determine where exchange rates are most likely headed in the not-too-distant future.
Another unique aspect of this methodology is how it portrays price behavior. Rather than conceptualize price action as a series of financial transactions roughly tracking the path of one or more trend lines, the system views price movement as cutting a swath of values to form a tsunami or tidal wave constituting a band of a given amplitude that flows with a directional tendency.
The idea is to milk the absolute maximum amount of profit out of the market by entering and exiting positions at the peaks and troughs occurring near the two extremes of the tsunami’s amplitude. These levels are conceptualized as launch pads and landing sites (also as river banks and shorelines) and are calculated using a combination of moving averages, price range envelopes, and Donchian channels.
The rules for the Dynamic Price Range Forex Trading Strategy are as follows:
I am no longer making any modifications/improvements to my trading protocol, so I am going to begin posting a summary of the system in multiple locations so I can find it easily should I discover I have drifted away from my “winning ways” at any point in the future and need to therefore refer back to what I was doing before that was working.
As currently implemented, my approach is an offshoot of Numerical Price Prediction which I am calling: Dynamic Price Range Forex Trading Strategy.
It is based on the biblical principles of testing everything and holding fast to that which is good and knowing how to judge the signs of the times.
Much of this involved looking at historical data to analyze which moving averages in a given time frame foreshadowed rising prices virtually every time they evidenced an upward trajectory, or were followed by falling prices just about every time they evidenced a downward slope—where the association between the two phenomena produced a statistically significant positive correlation (as close to 100% as possible) and then apply those same measures in the present to achieve successful outcomes.
As a result of this process, each currency pair was assigned an “orbit,” with the thought that just as the numerous systems, patterns, currents, rotations, and forces observed on our planet are all subject to the same overall trajectory as the earth revolves around the sun—currency pairs too gravitate toward an ultimate destination via a specific circuit revealed by their orbits.
However, such “revolutions” do not fit standard moving averages and must therefore be represented by uniquely, painstakingly selected ones. Due to their very nature, a trader should (hypothetically) always win in the end so long as he or she plots a course in the direction of a given asset’s orbit.
Near the end of its development, the main idea was to use technical analysis to make market forecasts in roughly the same manner meteorologists use computer models to predict the weather.
This amounted to noting precise, up-to-date, quantitative information about market conditions, and interpreting the data to make accurate projections, except instead of relying on factors such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, cloud formation, and wind direction/velocity; my measurements are gathered on trend lines, market structure, average price ranges, historical support/resistance levels, and repetitive price patterns to simulate the equations, the wave functions and representations, and the grid point, spectral and/or coordinate models used in weather forecasting.
However, as with numerical weather prediction, there are intrinsic predictability limitations leading to error growth with time, so I use this approach almost exclusively for pseudo-swing and intraday trading, evaluating how all the above factors interact and relate to one another to determine where exchange rates are most likely headed in the not-too-distant future.
Another unique aspect of this methodology is how it portrays price behavior. Rather than conceptualize price action as a series of financial transactions roughly tracking the path of one or more trend lines, the system views price movement as cutting a swath of values to form a tsunami or tidal wave constituting a band of a given amplitude that flows with a directional tendency.
The idea is to milk the absolute maximum amount of profit out of the market by entering and exiting positions at the peaks and troughs occurring near the two extremes of the tsunami’s amplitude. These levels are conceptualized as launch pads and landing sites (also as river banks and shorelines) and are calculated using a combination of moving averages, price range envelopes, and Donchian channels.
The rules for the Dynamic Price Range Forex Trading Strategy are as follows:
- To maximize the percentage of winning trades, do not enter a position unless the trade is aligned with the orbit of the corresponding asset. This is identical to the slope of the instrument’s gravitational trendline.
- Moreover, positions should not be entered unless price is crossing over the intraday trigger line after having made contact with a launchpad or shoreline.
- Stop losses and Take-profit targets are calculated using the adaptive price range envelopes. However, positions should not be exited automatically. To let profits run, traders should remain in a given position until touch down is achieved at the designated landing site, AND price begins to reverse back over the intraday trigger line in the OPPOSITE direction.
- And finally, "the trend is your friend" might be a fair maxim, but the Numerical Price Prediction forecast models suggests that this all depends on context. Accordingly, there are a number of other factors the system requires traders to consider before executing any trade, as listed below:
- Where is the exchange rate located or positioned within the global and universal price ranges?
- Is the rate oscillating inside the local price range, or is it trending to the outside of this region?
- Is price action taking place above or below the gravity line?
- What is the slope of the gravity line?
- Is price action taking place above or below the anchor line?
- What is the slope of the anchor line?
- Have the river banks/shorelines flattened out, or are they sloping?
- Is the exchange rate crossing the trigger line after having made contact with a launchpad or landing site?
- What is the ordinal configuration of the actionable trend lines (and are they fanning out)?
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Very good performance. I think you have to start making bigger bets because the winning ratio screams about success.
I will increase lot size as the account grows, especially when I switch to full-time trading. For the time being however, I will instead be depositing $20 to $50 a week on top of whatever I generate trading part time. The unexpected contract offer I received in September (which is why I did not begin trading full-time last month, as planned) might stretch into the beginning of 2020. At that point, I should have one or two thousand in my OANDA account, meaning I can begin trading full-time immediately (no waiting for my last paycheck to arrive before doing so, as just occurred) which means no more chances of my allowing myself to be sidetracked by a new project offer.
At that point, I will begin trading 0.5 lots instead of 0.02. But as long as I'm trading part-time, I will not make bigger bets due to the danger of having my stops hit. Dynamic Price Range trading reveals the moment trends reverse direction, virtually eliminating draw down and practically guarantying a consistent daily winning ratio that "screams success." But therein lies the rub. Without that aspect of the system in place (full-time monitoring and managing of positions) wisdom dictates I keep my bets at the same level they are now.
(Note how in the record referenced above, there were only three times I exited positions by allowing my take-profit target to be hit.)
Patience can be a virtue, and I'm confident everything will come together as it should, provided I don't rush it. Jacob's son Joseph went from a prison cell to second in command over Egypt virtually overnight. Likewise, I'm content to wait until my time comes, which might not be that far off, relatively speaking.
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Satisfied with what I call a Numerical Price Prediction Forex trading system and its two offshoots (Dynamic Price Range and Cycle Theory trading) I am going to once again try upping my game by attempting to do profitably something I haven't tried in over two years given that it has always eluded me—position trading foreign currency pairs successfully.
Day trading was so much easier (and profitable) I finally concluded that to continue to try mastering position trading was, for me personally, wasted effort. I suspect however that I had not yet developed at that time the indicators I have now, and I definitely had not yet conceptualized price movement in the way I view it today.
So I'm hoping to find out in short order if these new developments will make a difference. My first test case might well be to short CADJPY, but the time to do so has not yet arrived. USDJPY is another candidate that has already turned south, but I plan to short this pair at strategic levels and not simply sell and hold. Either trade should easily be worth 100 to 200 pips. EURJPY looks like it too might offer an opportunity to sell in the next week or two.
When it comes to the Cable pairs however, I plan to sit on the sidelines in that I am not so sure they are not commencing wholesale reversals.
TENTATIVE PLAN:
Look for the right time to short USDJPY if it pulls back 108.54, or especially if it pulls back to 108.64.