No "natural" herd immunity - multiple patients catch COVID-19 with symptoms a second time

[gwb-trading]

We are well on our way to herd immunity. In ten days we will know with more certainty as during the past 96 hours tens of millions have mingled with each other in close proximity. Rate of infection is only relevant as it pertains to the spread throughout the general population. The more the better. 8 out of 10 will have no symptoms to speak of. Hospitalized and deaths are the only things that matter. If those two things don't spike and sustain high levels we are out of the woods. If they do, our world will be changed long term for the worse, much worse. We will know soon

Despite wandering around for a couple months freely, only 7.3% of Stockholm had immunity in late April. Previously Sweden's Public Health Agency proclaimed that over 33% of Stockholm would have herd immunity by May 1st. Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist Tegnell claimed on April 22nd that Stockholm already had arrived at over 20% heard immunity. Yet the actually measured figures show the actual number is 7.3% in Stockholm which is nowhere near the necessary hear immunity levels of 70%.

Now it is time for the hard truths about "natural herd immunity". It is difficult to get "natural herd immunity" above 50% for a population. This level is enough to slow a disease slightly but not to stop it. A vaccine is needed to get herd immunity to a level of 70% or above. All of this is outlined in the Baltimore studies of measles which were the basis for "hared immunity" theory.

Sweden's plan to use "natural herd immunity" is completely flawed. All it did was to cause more misery, sickness, and death than all of their neighbors while causing their economy to completely tank worse than many other European countries. No other country should follow their flawed example.

 

[CaptainObvious]

Despite wandering around for a couple months freely, only 7.3% of Stockholm had immunity in late April. Previously Sweden's Public Health Agency proclaimed that over 33% of Stockholm would have herd immunity by May 1st. Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist Tegnell claimed on April 22nd that Stockholm already had arrived at over 20% heard immunity. Yet the actually measured figures show the actual number is 7.3% in Stockholm which is nowhere near the necessary hear immunity levels of 70%.

Now it is time for the hard truths about "natural herd immunity". It is difficult to get "natural herd immunity" above 50% for a population. This level is enough to slow a disease slightly but not to stop it. A vaccine is needed to get herd immunity to a level of 70% or above. All of this is outlined in the Baltimore studies of measles which were the basis for "hared immunity" theory.

Sweden's plan to use "natural herd immunity" is completely flawed. All it did was to cause more misery, sickness, and death than all of their neighbors while causing their economy to completely tank worse than many other European countries. No other country should follow their flawed example.

Vaccine is months away, maybe years, possibly never. We cannot wait for that. Hospitalized and deaths should be our primary concern. Three quarters or better with no symptoms, so the more it spreads the better so long as the at risk categories continue to decline. Ten days to potential freedom...or not.

 

[gwb-trading]

Vaccine is months away, maybe years, possibly never. We cannot wait for that. Hospitalized and deaths should be our primary concern. Three quarters or better with no symptoms, so the more it spreads the better so long as the at risk categories continue to decline. Ten days to potential freedom...or not.

Actually nearly all states in the U.S. are following the best public health advice. They had a 60 day lockdown, followed by a phased re-opening with clear entry & exit criteria for each stage.

If the number of cases and hospitalization spike up then a state will apply the mitigations and potentially lockdown again. If a state sees a reductions in cases and hospitalizations then they will simply continue on their course of phased "re-opening"

Anyone who thinks that a state will magically totally re-open in 10 days if cases and hospitalization don't spike are kidding themselves. The state will merely continue on their current course. Phase 2 in most states is 6 to 8 weeks long - it typically allows eat-in dining with 50% capacity with retail stores open and non-essential retail to be opening. Opening gyms and large event gatherings still require phase 3 or beyond.

 

[CaptainObvious]

Actually nearly all states in the U.S. are following the best public health advice. They had a 60 day lockdown, followed by a phased re-opening with clear entry & exit criteria for each stage.

If the number of cases and hospitalization spike up then a state will apply the mitigations and potentially lockdown again. If a state sees a reductions in cases and hospitalizations then they will simply continue on their course of phased "re-opening"

Anyone who thinks that a state will magically totally re-open in 10 days if cases and hospitalization don't spike are kidding themselves. The state will merely continue on their current course. Phase 2 in most states is 6 to 8 weeks long - it typically allows eat-in dining with 50% capacity with retail stores open and non-essential retail to be opening. Opening gyms and large event gatherings still require phase 3 or beyond.

This assessment completely ignores what has been going on for the past 96 hours..Everyone has been out, limited or no social distancing. If there is no significant spike before the first weekend of June then there is no need to continue the shutdown. Whether or not states open up is up to them and will be based on political decisions rather than science if there is no spike in hospitalization and deaths, simple as that. Ten days we know, science being followed or politics.

 

[gwb-trading]

This assessment completely ignores what has been going on for the past 96 hours..Everyone has been out, limited or no social distancing. If there is no significant spike before the first weekend of June then there is no need to continue the shutdown. Whether or not states open up is up to them and will be based on political decisions rather than science if there is no spike in hospitalization and deaths, simple as that. Ten days we know, science being followed or politics.

So everyone goes out for two months and we reach a mere 7.3% herd immunity just like Stockholm and still experience the highest COVID-19 sickness and death rate on the planet.

What a marvelous plan... based on a model of complete failure.

Anyone who proposes doing what Brazil is doing is not following science.

 

[CaptainObvious]

So everyone goes out for two months and we reach a mere 7.3% herd immunity just like Stockholm and still experience the highest COVID-19 sickness and death rate on the planet.

What a marvelous plan... based on a model of complete failure.

Anyone who proposes doing what Brazil is doing is not following science.

Herd immunity isn't all that relevant when 80 percent of the infected have no symptoms. Chasing ghosts is political. Chasing some illusion of safe is political. Continue the shutdown when hospitalized and deaths are in a constant decline, that's political too. We must go out, face the music and see what happens. Time is now, right now.

 

[gwb-trading]

Herd immunity isn't all that relevant when 80 percent of the infected have no symptoms. Chasing ghosts is political. Chasing some illusion of safe is political. Continue the shutdown when hospitalized and deaths are in a constant decline, that's political too. We must go out, face the music and see what happens. Time is now, right now.

80% of the infected do not have symptoms? At all? Ever? That is merely you projecting. Most people show symptoms at some point even if they are minor.

The infected may not have symptoms for 3 to 13 days before the symptoms appear -- which merely serves to make COVID-19 more infectious since people are still out & about spreading the disease before they feel sick.

 

[CaptainObvious]

80% of the infected do not have symptoms? At all? Ever? That is merely you projecting. Most people show symptoms at some point even if they are minor.

The infected may not have symptoms for 3 to 13 days before the symptoms appear -- which merely serves to make COVID-19 more infectious since people are still out & about spreading the disease before they feel sick.

No different than you projecting five sailors with supposed reinfection means everyone is subject to reinfection. We cannot wait for some silly miracle of "safe" to happen. We have a vaccine for the flu and it still kills 40K each and every year. We deal with it. No president Trump, there is no shutdown. It's been political from day one. We all know this.

 

[jem]

talk about projections...
I could not believe he had the lack of integrity to say that...

look at the title he gave this thread...
he has been the king of illogical projections.

No different than you projecting five sailors with supposed reinfection means everyone is subject to reinfection. We cannot wait for some silly miracle of "safe" to happen. We have a vaccine for the flu and it still kills 40K each and every year. We deal with it. No president Trump, there is no shutdown. It's been political from day one. We all know this.

 

[gwb-trading]

No different than you projecting five sailors with supposed reinfection means everyone is subject to reinfection. We cannot wait for some silly miracle of "safe" to happen. We have a vaccine for the flu and it still kills 40K each and every year. We deal with it. No president Trump, there is no shutdown. It's been political from day one. We all know this.

Once again.... the issue with the five sailors is that they demonstrated SYMPTOMS TWICE. This means that their situation cannot be due to faulty testing. Either they are facing one of two scenarios (as explained by the military spokesperson):

• They recovered from COVID-19 and then got re-infected.
• OR the virus lay dormant for a period of time and then re-infected them.

Either scenario is quite concerning.... plus the number now being up to 14 sailors. If this happens to a 1.4% percentage (14 out of approx. 1000 infected) of a population -- it raises significant problems with public immunity and vaccination efforts.