No "natural" herd immunity - multiple patients catch COVID-19 with symptoms a second time

[LS1Z28]

The more I think about this story, the more it makes sense. This naval carrier had a crew of 4,800 people, and they were all tested more than once. What are the odds that you won't have a handful of test failures when you're running that many tests?

 

[gwb-trading]

The more I think about this story, the more it makes sense. This naval carrier had a crew of 4,800 people, and they were all tested more than once. What are the odds that you won't have a handful of test failures when you're running that many tests?

The real problem here is that these sailors had symptoms, tested positive, then recovered, tested negative twice, then developed symptoms again and tested positive. If this was only the tests with no symptoms then you could blame it on testing failures.

 

[Dr. Love]

I don't think this is that difficult to figure out.

What we know:

The CCP is willing to lose trillions of dollars in order to keep the source of this virus secret.

We know this virus came from a lab. We don't know if it is natural or not.

An Indian paper published early on and swiftly taken down by the scientific community noted the virus had 'HIV' qualities.

It is possible that an incredibly stupid Chinese scientist decided it was a good idea to mix the SARS and HIV virus, to 'see what happens'.

This might be the reason why the CCP will never allow the origin investigation to take place.

Imagining this virus has persistent qualities, in theory, the body should be able to fight the virus over time like it happens with herpes with occasional flare-ups. If the body slowly loses its immune defense mechanisms like with HIV, then we better get a treatment done soon as there have been untold millions of people infected.

Theory holds out immune system should become stronger against this virus over time, but I have not seen any studies done on that yet. Hope it does.

 

[Cuddles]

I don't think this is that difficult to figure out.

What we know:

The CCP is willing to lose trillions of dollars in order to keep the source of this virus secret.
FALSE
We know this virus came from a lab. We don't know if it is natural or not.
FALSE
An Indian paper published early on and swiftly taken down by the scientific community noted the virus had 'HIV' qualities.
FALSE
It is possible that an incredibly stupid Chinese scientist decided it was a good idea to mix the SARS and HIV virus, to 'see what happens'.
FALSE
This might be the reason why the CCP will never allow the origin investigation to take place.
FALSE
Imagining this virus has persistent qualities, in theory, the body should be able to fight the virus over time like it happens with herpes with occasional flare-ups. If the body slowly loses its immune defense mechanisms like with HIV, then we better get a treatment done soon as there have been untold millions of people infected.
FALSE
Theory holds out immune system should become stronger against this virus over time, but I have not seen any studies done on that yet. Hope it is.

 

[RRY16]

I don't think this is that difficult to figure out.

What we know:

The CCP is willing to lose trillions of dollars in order to keep the source of this virus secret.

We know this virus came from a lab. We don't know if it is natural or not.

An Indian paper published early on and swiftly taken down by the scientific community noted the virus had 'HIV' qualities.

It is possible that an incredibly stupid Chinese scientist decided it was a good idea to mix the SARS and HIV virus, to 'see what happens'.

This might be the reason why the CCP will never allow the origin investigation to take place.

Imagining this virus has persistent qualities, in theory, the body should be able to fight the virus over time like it happens with herpes with occasional flare-ups. If the body slowly loses its immune defense mechanisms like with HIV, then we better get a treatment done soon as there have been untold millions of people infected.

Theory holds out immune system should become stronger against this virus over time, but I have not seen any studies done on that yet. Hope it does.

TMI, Dr. Herpes.

 

[wildchild]

The U.S. navy carrier with a COVID-19 outbreak has the most comprehensive COVID-19 testing and screening program on the face of the earth at this point.

Let's take a look at the information:

1. Five sailors catch COVID-19 with symptoms and recover.
2. The sailors test negative twice and are restored to the ship.
3. The five sailors come down with symptoms of COVID-19 and test positive again.

This situation is not about lingering RNA strand leading to a positive COVID-19 test results weeks later - it is about victims getting COVID-19 for a second time.

The Variables: Could the tests not be accurate? Possibly. The real problem is that these sailors developed symptoms twice --- weeks apart. This is the strongest indicator that the first infection does not provide natural immunity.

Bottom Line: Recovering from COVID-19 does not provide natural immunity to catching it again.

What it means: The COVID-19 strategy used by Sweden is most likely the worst public health decision in recent decades. Their non-lockdown strategy was done with no understanding if natural immunity was provided to victims after recovery from the first infection. As outlined by WHO the only path to "herd immunity" is via a vaccine.

The broader policy impact: Anyone proposing a "only lockdown the high risk people" strategy is proposing a public health disaster. In other words - these uninformed people are pushing an agenda that is completely irrational.


Sailors on sidelined carrier get virus for second time
https://apnews.com/0cae34376380ab4150002a58bd9934b9

Five sailors on the U.S. aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, according to the Navy.

The resurgence of the virus in the five sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt underscores the befuddling behavior of the highly contagious virus and raises questions about how troops that test positive can be reintegrated into the military, particularly on ships.

All five sailors had previously tested positive and had gone through at least two weeks of isolation. As part of the process, they all had to test negative twice in a row, with the tests separated by at least a day or two before they were allowed to go back to the ship.

The Roosevelt has been at port in Guam since late March after the outbreak of the virus was discovered. More than 4,000 of the 4,800 crew members have gone ashore since then for quarantine or isolation. Earlier this month hundreds of sailors began returning to the ship, in coordinated waves, to get ready to set sail again.

In a statement Friday, the Navy said that, while onboard, the five sailors self-monitored and adhered to strict social distancing protocols.

“These five Sailors developed influenza-like illness symptoms and did the right thing reporting to medical for evaluation,” the Navy said, adding that they were immediately removed from the ship and put back in isolation. A small number of other sailors who were in contact with them were also taken off the ship.

Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said the outbreak has been a learning process.

“This is a very stubborn, infectious disease,” he told Pentagon reporters during a briefing on Friday. He said that because of the Navy’s quick action, medical crew were notified right away and determined who might have also been exposed and got them all off the ship.

As of Thursday, more than 2,900 sailors have reboarded the ship, and about 25% of the more than 1,000 who had tested positive have now recovered, according to the Navy.

(More at above url)

Then there is no vaccine, time to end all lockdowns and get on with our lives.

 

[gwb-trading]

Then there is no vaccine, time to end all lockdowns and get on with our lives.

Let's review the 5 points of why a lock-down period is necessary again:

1) To prevent the overloading of hospital resources - where the number of COVID-19 patients is greater than capacity to treat them.
2) To provide time to obtain the necessary number of COVID-19 test kits and get a testing process in place to meet the necessary capacity for re-opening.
3) To get proper Contact Tracing in place for COVID-19 prior to re-opening. This includes getting the necessary systems in place and getting people hired for the positions.
4) To reduce the effective infection rate (R) to below 0.8 in a community before opening.
5) To reduce the total number of infections in the community to reduce the number of vector starting points when re-opening that must be traced and quarantined.

We are facing a novel pandemic with no vaccine and no effective drug treatment. The steps to re-open include a 60 day lockdown period followed by a phased reopening with clear entry & exit criteria for each stage. This is the best possible balance of public health, mental health, and the economy. There is tremendous economic risk if the states re-open to early since an immediate follow-up wave of the pandemic would take the economy down for many more months than doing it right the first time.

 

[wildchild]

Let's review the 5 points of why a lock-down period is necessary again:

1) To prevent the overloading of hospital resources - where the number of COVID-19 patients is greater than capacity to treat them.
2) To provide time to obtain the necessary number of COVID-19 test kits and get a testing process in place to meet the necessary capacity for re-opening.
3) To get proper Contact Tracing in place for COVID-19 prior to re-opening. This includes getting the necessary systems in place and getting people hired for the positions.
4) To reduce the effective infection rate (R) to below 0.8 in a community before opening.
5) To reduce the total number of infections in the community to reduce the number of vector starting points when re-opening that must be traced and quarantined.

We are facing a novel pandemic with no vaccine and no effective drug treatment. The steps to re-open include a 60 day lockdown period followed by a phased reopening with clear entry & exit criteria for each stage. This is the best possible balance of public health, mental health, and the economy. There is tremendous economic risk if the states re-open to early since an immediate follow-up wave of the pandemic would take the economy down for many more months than doing it right the first time.

Piss poor analysis skills. You don't even get the point of the post. Do I need to embarrass you again?

 

[jem]

you just told us there is no natural herd immunity... (the title to this thread)
so there is no natural immunity

so everything about testing and tracing is absolutely useless bullshit if this virus is really to be feared and and has the R0 you claim it has.

in short you are the most illogical poster on elitetrader.

Let's review the 5 points of why a lock-down period is necessary again:

1) To prevent the overloading of hospital resources - where the number of COVID-19 patients is greater than capacity to treat them.
2) To provide time to obtain the necessary number of COVID-19 test kits and get a testing process in place to meet the necessary capacity for re-opening.
3) To get proper Contact Tracing in place for COVID-19 prior to re-opening. This includes getting the necessary systems in place and getting people hired for the positions.
4) To reduce the effective infection rate (R) to below 0.8 in a community before opening.
5) To reduce the total number of infections in the community to reduce the number of vector starting points when re-opening that must be traced and quarantined.

We are facing a novel pandemic with no vaccine and no effective drug treatment. The steps to re-open include a 60 day lockdown period followed by a phased reopening with clear entry & exit criteria for each stage. This is the best possible balance of public health, mental health, and the economy. There is tremendous economic risk if the states re-open to early since an immediate follow-up wave of the pandemic would take the economy down for many more months than doing it right the first time.

 

[gwb-trading]

Piss poor analysis skills. You don't even get the point of the post. Do I need to embarrass you again?

We are getting on in life. So are many other countries. We are doing it by following the best possible public health guidance that I provided above. The only risk is if states open too early without adequate testing and contact tracing resources in place, or before they have met standards for a reduced R with declining cases.