National Polls - Inside the margin...

[Wallet]

You keep saying “oversampling”, what is that supposed to mean?

Here’s an example. Believe it or not I’m a registered Democrat, Wife’s a Republican ( she said she could marry a democrat but could never be friends with one...lol. Line taken from Garrison Keillor). We’re a house divided.

Every night I get at least one, if not several, opinion polls, via text message, asked to participate ( which I never reply) Wife nada.

Why’s that????

 

[UsualName]

Well the polls do their weights... they frequently

Gallop said about a month ago the polls which gave biden a big lead
weighted their polls in a manner in which they might have
42 Democrats and 38 Rs or more slanted than that..

While Gallop is finding that in terms of identification
their poll 2 weeks ago found more Rs than Ds
and this weeks had 2 more Ds than R.

So sample size determines margin of error. A larger sample of randomized voters mean a lower margin of error.

Weighting is a different story and that comes down to the pollsters best guess of what the electorate will look like. Basic categories like democrat republicans and independents but the sub categories like race and gender and then third level like education and income.

Now for the sake of simplicity, let’s say a pollster expects an electorate of 50% dem and 50% republican. He grabs a list of 200 likely voters 50/50, and randomly calls the list and gets in contact with 60 democrats and 40 republicans. The pollster would then have to “weight” the dem respondents lower and Republican respondents higher.

So a dem response might be assigned a weight of 0.9 whereas a Republican respondent would get something like a weight of 1.1. Then you multiply those weights to the response total of each and now you have your weight.

But high samples are a good thing just understand that if more democrats are reached than the pollster expects to be in the electorate then their responses have less value individually than the republicans.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Here’s an example. Believe it or not I’m a registered Democrat, Wife’s a Republican ( she said she could marry a democrat but could never be friends with one...lol. Line taken from Garrison Keillor). We’re a house divided.

Every night I get at least one, if not several, opinion polls, via text message, asked to participate ( which I never reply) Wife nada.

Why’s that????

There also is a thing called Shy Trump Voter Syndrome. Trump will win this election in an electoral college landslide.

 

[Cuddles]

This is called Shy Trump Voter Syndrome. Trump will win this election in an electoral college landslide.

All those houses without a Trump lawn sign are voting Biden pal.

 

[UsualName]

Here’s an example. Believe it or not I’m a registered Democrat, Wife’s a Republican ( she said she could marry a democrat but could never be friends with one...lol. Line taken from Garrison Keillor). We’re a house divided.

Every night I get at least one, if not several, opinion polls, via text message, asked to participate ( which I never reply) Wife nada.

Why’s that????

You obviously on a likely voter list in an interesting district or state.

 

[jem]

So instead of calling it over sampling.
lets call it overweighting.

The polls which gave biden larger leads
Over weight Dems.

So sample size determines margin of error. A larger sample of randomized voters mean a lower margin of error.

Weighting is a different story and that comes down to the pollsters best guess of what the electorate will look like. Basic categories like democrat republicans and independents but the sub categories like race and gender and then third level like education and income.

Now for the sake of simplicity, let’s say a pollster expects an electorate of 50% dem and 50% republican. He grabs a list of 200 likely voters 50/50, and randomly calls the list and gets in contact with 60 democrats and 40 republicans. The pollster would then have to “weight” the dem respondents lower and Republican respondents higher.

So a dem response might be assigned a weight of 0.9 whereas a Republican respondent would get something like a weight of 1.1. Then you multiply those weights to the response total of each and now you have your weight.

But high samples are a good thing just understand that if more democrats are reached than the pollster expects to be in the electorate then their responses have less value individually than the republicans.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Here’s an example. Believe it or not I’m a registered Democrat, Wife’s a Republican ( she said she could marry a democrat but could never be friends with one...lol. Line taken from Garrison Keillor). We’re a house divided.

As the saying goes: "no one will ever win the war between the sexes because there is too much fraternizing with the enemy."

 

[Wallet]

You obviously on a likely voter list in an interesting district or state.

If that’s the case, so should my wife. I’m being continually chosen because pollers assume my responses will be liberal in nature. My wife is avoided in the opposite context.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

You obviously on a likely voter list in an interesting district or state.

Wife may have discovered spam blocking tools too.

 

[UsualName]

So instead of calling it over sampling.
lets call it overweighting.

The polls which gave biden larger leads
Over weight Dems.

Well do they? What is your opinion of what the electorate will look like this year?