National Polls - Inside the margin...

Wallet said:
If that’s the case, so should my wife. I’m being continually chosen because pollers assume my responses will be liberal in nature. My wife is avoided in the opposite context.
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Maybe but that’s the point of large randomized samples to minimize outliers. Also, why there is always a margin of error. And to be perfectly honest sometimes polls just fail due to randomness - that’s how we end up with some polls showing someone leading by like 17 points.
 
Just released: Gallup’s final favorability survey before the election:

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Significant increase for Trump over 2016, disperate results for Biden in relation to Clinton.
 
Wallet said:
My wife is electronically and technologically incompetent. :banghead:

She’s great with people, but nada with machines.
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They say that a wife only needs to be good in one room of the house. It used to mean the kitchen or the bedroom.

So if she is not good in the computer room, well, not necessarily a show stopper.

:cool:
 
I don't have an opinion on the turnout.
The algo I put together years ago says we should look to the last two elections in the cycle.
So a proper poll could sample 2 to 5 more dems more or less. I think 2 or 3 would be about perfect.

UsualName said:
Well do they? What is your opinion of what the electorate will look like this year?
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jem said:
I don't have an opinion on the turnout.
The algo I put together years ago says we should look to the last two elections in the cycle.
So a proper poll could sample 2 to 5 more dems more or less. I think 2 or 3 would be about perfect.
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The smartest man in the room is the one that will admit he doesn’t know. I don’t know either. I don’t think this electorate is predictable because there are so many countervailing factors. For example, on one hand enthusiasm is through the roof and on the other hand it’s a pandemic. So we know there are people who are going to vote that don’t fit in as likely and we know there are people who are not going to vote because they may be worried about catching Covid. I don’t think those numbers can be identified.

With that said, there will almost certainly be record participation. I would guess 160m. What the overall make up looks like, I have no idea.
 
exGOPer said:
Did you miss what happened in the last week of 2016? And how the polling changed after the Comey letter with undecideds moving to Trump? Maybe you should research the past before handing out old talking points. Hillary never hit 50% in 2016 and there were lot of undecideds, not to mention that Trump won the electoral college with thinnest of margins.

Feel free to wait few days, you will eat your words soon enough.
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The thing is, if Trump concedes or Biden otherwise appears to have won the election, I will recognize him as our President and will be supportive of his agenda for at least the first few months of his administration, unlike other members of a certain political party that I don’t need to name.

Why would I do such a thing? Am I crazy? Well, besides that? It is because I respect our electoral process and even if the will of the people has been influenced by the media through long term imposition of foreign ideas through journalism schools, etc. Otherwise fair election results reflect the current will of the people. Trump and allies had four years to make their case and if they failed to make it, even under a coordinated attempt to undermine their efforts, they still failed.

Sure, I recognize the issues a Democrat President under the influence of the Radical Left brings. For all the efforts to impose ideas through anarchy, Constitutional changes, and media pressure, the most immediate negative impact will be Biden’s stated and unstated tax increases of the most productive and successful of us who are the creators of many jobs and who are decision makers when it comes to capital spending by businesses. Do I need mention the recent suffering of small business owners due to Leftist rioting along with future suffering due to planned Democrat Covid related shutdowns?

In other words, money and talent will flow to more business and tax friendly countries, ultimately reducing economic activity and the employment that goes along with it in the United States, impacting the working poor and the middle class the hardest. The relative difference in tax environments between countries is pretty close as it is now. We have seen large amounts of money flow to the US during the Trump Administration. All that money and investment can easily flow the other way along with longer term money.

Future government stimulus and spending packages will have reduced effectiveness because businesses and consumers will withhold their normal spending habits due to economic and political uncertainty, hurting our economy and will drive the US loss of reserve currency status ever closer as US influence on global markets decrease. With loss of reserve status, purchasing power will drop dramatically for already suffering Americans. Over time, the US will continue to lose talent to countries that offer better economic opportunities, in an ironic turnaround from the present situation. The Democrat voting base will be hardest hit. At least border security will no longer be an issue.

While it is not hard to see the long term serious repercussions of a Biden win, I will be supportive of his platform as mentioned earlier by posting ideas for consideration in hopes of positively addressing the risks of some of his policies.

So while I’m expecting and hoping for a Trump reelection, I am willing to accept and support a Biden Presidency.
 
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So I was pretty concerned for Trump's chances when the IBD poll was giving Biden a lead outside the margin for error.

That changed this weekend. Biden leads Trump on the IBD polls margin for error.

Also...


Rasmussen also showed a two-point move towards the president over the weekend. What had been a three point race on Friday, with Biden up 49 to 46 percent, is now a single point race, with Biden up 48 to 47 percent, well within the poll’s 2.5 point margin of error.


https://www.breitbart.com/2020-elec...t-towards-trump-weekend-show-statistical-tie/
 
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