National Polls - Inside the margin...

[UsualName]

Math:

This is an exercise to see what Election Day turnout would have to look like for Trump win popular vote.

100,000,000* already voted

60% Biden 60,000,000
38% Trump 38,000,000

If ~65,000,000 vote in person

29% Biden 18,850,000
66% Trump 42,900,000

That will give Trump the popular vote (which I know he doesn’t need).

Total
Biden 78,850,000
Trump 80,900,000

For reference 2016 total voters turnout was around 139,000,000 or 55.5%

To get to 165,000,000 voter turnout would have to be around 64%.

*

 

[Tsing Tao]

Math:

This is an exercise to see what Election Day turnout would have to look like for Trump win popular vote.

100,000,000* already voted

60% Biden 60,000,000
38% Trump 38,000,000

If ~65,000,000 vote in person

29% Biden 18,850,000
66% Trump 42,900,000

That will give Trump the popular vote (which I know he doesn’t need).

Total
Biden 78,850,000
Trump 80,900,000

For reference 2016 total voters turnout was around 139,000,000 or 55.5%

To get to 165,000,000 voter turnout would have to be around 64%.

*
View attachment 243054

Thanks for the math.

Logic:

Your math assumes the NBC poll is remotely accurate.

 

[UsualName]

Thanks for the math.

Logic:

Your math assumes the NBC poll is remotely accurate.

I took you guys off of ignore for the day. Yes, all of it is approximate but in line with most other approximations.

 

[Tsing Tao]

I took you guys off of ignore for the day. Yes, all of it is approximate but in line with most other approximations.

Very magnanimous of you.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Thanks for the math.

Logic:

Your math assumes the NBC poll is remotely accurate.

One thing that his math also assumes is that Republican voters answered honestly.

 

[Tsing Tao]

One thing that his math also assumes is that Republican voters answered honestly.

That's in line with one of the reasons the NBC numbers might be inaccurate.

 

[UsualName]

One thing that his math also assumes is that Republican voters answered honestly.

I know shy Biden voters but not one shy Trump voter.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I know shy Biden voters but not one shy Trump voter.

AH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

I know shy Biden voters but not one shy Trump voter.

You are on drugs.

There is no other reason why a person would say that.

 

[UsualName]

You are on drugs.

There is no other reason why a person would say that.

I know 2 Republicans who quietly voted for Biden. I don’t know of anyone who is hiding their Trump support.