My only edge is technical analysis

[Laissez Faire]

Trading is an art. Regardless how hard you trade to go fully systematic, the edges come and go very frequently, not enough to make huge profits to get rich from, if you found one (edge), which is also very hard. The correlation and cointegration thingy is hyped too. I tried it hard, it is not working longterm. Cointegration comes and go. And mean-reverting is hard to trade, you need to have a stoploss and then you RRR ratio per trade is not good so you need high win ratio. Trading is an art because the success or any edge is depending highly on discretionary elements, things you cannot backtest properly at all. My two cents (after spending 15 years fully systematic).
And one thing, this hype here for this "magic" bollinger band looking custom indi, forget it. There is simply no magic indicator or formula at all in trading.

Agreed. I think it's very difficult to design a completely systematic/mechanical system which beats buy and hold.

Honestly, the best thing anyone can do is to zoom out a bit and go for larger moves. Yes, your win rate may go down, but the risk/reward is there. I'm more of an intraday swing trader these days and I'm a terrible scalper (like most would-be-traders). I've had big, big days with a win rate well below 50 %. Very few people will achieve the required win rate and R/R ratio to be a consistent scalper.

As for 'edges' - there are definitely major patterns that work over time, i.e., the major move from A to B. That's the part that can be predicted with some accuracy. For example, today was a predicted Up Day on SPX. It's the zig zagging noise throughout the day during the move from A to B that's unpredictable. So, go long around the Open and hold through the noise all the way to the Day High.

 

[BuzzTrader]

I agree too I didn't no back testing because it would have been counterproductive I did look at past charts though to calibrate the volatility model in my head but I decided that approach is a bit too loose and I'm not trading again until my software is done that can help me enter and manage these positions

At the end of the day math can only describe and never explain.

 

[Steve777]

At the end of the day math can only describe and never explain.

Well I'll give you points for trying to sound profound but I'll deduct a few for actually failing to achieve that goal

 

[BuzzTrader]

Well I'll give you points for trying to sound profound but I'll deduct a few for actually failing to achieve that goal

Bean counting does not translate to profitable trading.

 

[themickey]

Bean counting does not translate to profitable trading.

Are you suggesting algo bean counting machines don't work?

 

[BuzzTrader]

Are you suggesting algo bean counting machines don't work?

A successful scientific theory reveals nothing known either true or false about nature's unobservable objects.

 

[SunTrader]

Does that mean we can no longer celebrate Pi day each year? Darn.

 

[Steve777]

A successful scientific theory reveals nothing known either true or false about nature's unobservable objects.

Dude, you sound so stupid it's not even funny not even worth the entertainment. Good luck believing whatever ignorant b******* that passes for thoughts in your head. If it's not observable to at least something then it doesn't exist. Let me know once you've mastered the finer details of the no boundary proposal and what it implies

 

[Steve777]

Bean counting does not translate to profitable trading.

What the f*** are you talking about bean counting who the f*** is counting beans. The only beans I'm counting are the f****** class files that generate as a result of my code being compiled and some instances they can still be referred to as Java beans I suppose

 

[themickey]

Dude, you sound so stupid it's not even funny.....

Ya, when I saw the reply, thought, I'm not gonna bother to reply to the nonsense.
Thx for stepping in.