My Big Moves Journal

[expiated]

NEXT "TRADE TIME" IS 10 AM PST

At this point I have no complaints and really have nothing more to ask of the charts I'm now using. Bit by bit I am deleting indicators, templates, and profiles to clean up my files now that I appear to have arrived where I want to be.

My first step was to systematically evaluate all the potential moving averages I might use to forecast price action in particular time frames until I uncovered the absolute best measures uniquely suited for each of the respective temporal settings, what I have since learned others call a "baseline," as illustrated by the moving average cluster below.

The second step was to adopt a viewpoint that primary concentrated not on the moving averages, but focused instead on conceptualizing price action—again, not as lines—but as a spectrum of values forming waves of given magnitudes that cut swaths of area to form bands or strips with directional tendency within the broader domain; to visualize these wave-like bands of designated amplitude as rivers of data and statistical currents bounded by riverbanks and shorelines which, if used as launch pads and landing sites, might enable one to navigate the Forex market with an adeptness and agility inevitably leading to profitable trading.

 

[expiated]

NEXT "TRADE TIME" IS 10 AM PST

The day-to-day sentiment for AUDUSD is bearish, yet the pair is currently near the upper band of its inner shoreline envelope. The upper band of the outer shoreline envelope is at 0.68804, just four-tenths of a pip above what I imagine would be a standard Nadex strike price. So if Nadex where not closed for the holiday, I would purchase a two-hour in-the-money binary option put contract with a strike price of 0.6880 based on the calculation that the rate is not likely to rise to the upper limits of its projected price range during a period when the Forex markets typically more-or-less peter out.

If my forecast models are correct 90% of the time, I would go ahead and risk a $75 to $85 loss for an almost guaranteed $15 to $25 gain. But since the exchange is closed, I don't know it the potential win would be $15, or more like $6, which would simply be out of the question under ANY circumstances.

USDJPY would be my second choice because the market is essentially bereft of life. However, it would be riskier because given its structure I would have to pick a strike price near the upper band of its inner shoreline rather than the outer shoreline, which would be preferable.

 

[expiated]

Why have the Kiwi pairs moved to the upper bands of their inner shoreline envelopes? Is it so the market makers can push the rates back down when the Performance Services Index data is released 90 minutes from now? I do not have the answer and I do not believe Nadex offers binary option contracts for NZDUSD anyway. Still, if an in-the-money 0.6620 strike price put contract were offered, I'm curious to see if it would be profitable given that the upper band of the outer shoreline envelope is below that level (@ 0.6617).

 

[expiated]

I did not expect NZDUSD to continue climbing as it did. Nonetheless, it did not violate the upper band of the outer shoreline envelope, as it was not expected to do, and eventually began to fall again...

 

[expiated]

Remember, Nadex shuts down each day from 2 PM to 3 PM PST.

I’m glad to see they are evidencing a little bit of logic and have started displaying the amount of time left on each of the contracts they are offering. Now I don’t have to covert each of the times from East Coast to West Coast to figure out which contract is the one I need, as I did before, which was a constant pain.

It looks like they also adjusted the login page so I don’t have to scroll down to hit the LOGIN button, though it occurred to me later that I should simply hit my Enter button instead.

I remembered correctly in that Nadex does not offer Kiwi binary options. Their list consists of...

1. AUDJPY
2. AUDUSD
3. EURGBP
4. EURJPY
5. EURUSD
6. GBPJPY
7. GBPUSD
8. USDCAD
9. USDCHF
10. USDJPY

The proper time to trade is three-and-a-half hours away, but I want to see how they've structured their strike prices. It I were to place an order now, it would be for EURJPY in that its day-to-day trend is bearish, but the rate is currently in the upper half of its price range.

I did not see a two-hour binary option in my live account, but there is one in the demo account. So what's up with that? Perhaps it was just my selective blindness. Anyway, there are 10 pips separating the EURJPY strike prices. (I will eventually make a list for each of the assets because they are not all the same.)

At 122.22 price is not quite as high as I would like. At 122.37 the nearest two-hour in-the-money put contract is only slightly above the inside upper shoreline, which is at 122.34, but it only pays a measly $6, which would be only $4 after fees. That sucks rocks big time!!!

The five-hour contracts are separated by 20 pips with the option corresponding to a 122.40 strike price offering $12. I would have preferred at least $15, but what can I say? My upper resistance level is at 122.46, so I'm taking a risk here, but I want to get the stats on how often the market is going to violate my forecast models, so here goes...

Worse than the fact that it is not yet 7 PM PST is that the Bank of Japan rate decision is supposed to be released, but I don't have the time. (It is listed as "tentative," so I could not make this trade if I were using real money.)

 

[expiated]

The proper time to trade is three-and-a-half hours away, but I want to see how Nadex has structured its strike prices. If I were to place an order now, it would be for an EURJPY put contract in that its day-to-day trend is bearish, but the rate is currently in the upper half of its price range.

Monday / January 20, 2020 / 5:00 p.m. PST

What's moving the market?

 

[expiated]

Monday / January 20, 2020 / 6:00 p.m. PST

Is this an opportunity? This is where I have my AUDJPY shoreline support levels. A 75.40 strike price is too close to risk, but to make ANY money at all off a 75.20 strike price I had to go all the way out to 14 or 18 hours!! So I'm risking $80 just to make $20 provided this pair is still above 75.20 eighteen hours from now.

My EURJPY contract ought to be worth about $12 right now. Why can't Nadex program their demo platform so it works properly?

 

[Overnight]

Monday / January 20, 2020 / 5:00 p.m. PST

What's moving the market?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/stocks-bond-yields-tumble-fears-over-coronavirus-outbreak-spread

Zombie apocalypse should move markets down through any modeled strategy.

 

[expiated]

Bank of Japan data released at 7 PM PST. So did the banks get early word? At any rate, this time period should be a lot more active than usual. Hypothetically, I could exit both contracts for a profit right now and not have to wait around another 16 hours during which AUDJPY could turn against me, but I would be leaving about $15 on the table.

 

[expiated]

Hypothetically, I could exit both contracts for a profit right now and not have to wait around another 16 hours during which AUDJPY could turn against me.

When AUDJPY was at 75.54 the numbers told me this was as high as it was going to go at the time. I should have locked in my profit then and gotten out, so my plan is to follow this strategy going forward. Currently, my forecast model is telling me that the highest I can expect the pair to climb now is to 75.43 max, but there is no "cap" to the downside, so there is a good chance I will end up eating a loss here.

UPDATE: AUDJPY looks like it is about to end a short leg to the north. Given that it is trending south overall, I am going to exit the position here...

A $10 loss is a lot better than an $80 loss, especially since I already made $12 from the previous trade.

UPDATE: AUDJPY just made a higher low at 75.28. If it makes a higher high as well by climbing above 75.37 I might have just abandoned a winning trade (if it ultimately turns north) but better safe than sorry. (My model calculates minimum to maximum daily support at 75.37, 75.21, and 74.93.)