My Big Moves Journal
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Friday / January 17, 2020
GBPUSD died last night (Thursday) at 7 PM, then began waking up again at around 10 PM.
It got a shot in the arm this morning following 40 minutes after midnight, and then reacted violently to the GBP Retail Sales Ex/Inc Auto Fuel numbers released this morning at 1:30 AM, even though the impact of this economic data was expected to be only low to medium according to Daily FX.
EURGBP picked up at 10:30 PM last night (Thursday) and also reacted violently to the economic data release this morning at 1:30 AM.
The market makers pushed GBPUSD to its upper shoreline and EURGBP to its lower shoreline before the data release, then shot both pairs to their respective opposite shorelines within ten minutes following.
At 3:00 AM EURGBP is flat, but GBPUSD is riding its shoreline south, so I'm going to enter a short position as an experiment to test whether the latter pair is under the influence of fundamentals. If it is, I expect to watch it continue falling for some time.
GBPUSD died last night (Thursday) at 7 PM, then began waking up again at around 10 PM.
It got a shot in the arm this morning following 40 minutes after midnight, and then reacted violently to the GBP Retail Sales Ex/Inc Auto Fuel numbers released this morning at 1:30 AM, even though the impact of this economic data was expected to be only low to medium according to Daily FX.
EURGBP picked up at 10:30 PM last night (Thursday) and also reacted violently to the economic data release this morning at 1:30 AM.
The market makers pushed GBPUSD to its upper shoreline and EURGBP to its lower shoreline before the data release, then shot both pairs to their respective opposite shorelines within ten minutes following.
At 3:00 AM EURGBP is flat, but GBPUSD is riding its shoreline south, so I'm going to enter a short position as an experiment to test whether the latter pair is under the influence of fundamentals. If it is, I expect to watch it continue falling for some time.
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CADJPY died last night at 7:30 PM and has been progressively more active ever since 10 PM. AUDUSD died at 8 PM and picked up at 10:45. AUDJPY calmed down at 8 PM but began slowly trending upward, then woke up again at around 10:30 PM. At 3:15 this morning it is approaching its lower shoreline, so if I am awake and around if and when it happens, I will probably try buying the pair upon a reversal north.
EURJPY and USDJPY have been headed south ever since 11 PM last night, and NZDJPY ever since 12:30 this morning (NZDUSD as well). USDCAD has been all over the map and USDCHF has not been much better, though it now seems to be trending north (ever since 1:30 AM).
EURJPY and USDJPY have been headed south ever since 11 PM last night, and NZDJPY ever since 12:30 this morning (NZDUSD as well). USDCAD has been all over the map and USDCHF has not been much better, though it now seems to be trending north (ever since 1:30 AM).
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GBPUSD elected not to sustain its southward trek, at which point, I purchased a call contract to avoid a net loss. Likewise AUDJPY opted not to continue north so that I had to purchase a second call contract later on to recoup 75% of what I lost earlier.
The Riverbank/Shoreline Touch forecast model suggests that USDCHF should rise from where it is now (0.9678) at 8:00 AM PST based on structure. However, as of yet there are no signs indicating it is ready to do this. So I will return later if and when I observe the reversal signal to see if the pair continues to rise after displaying the corresponding trigger.
UPDATE: The signal triggered at 8:25 AM PST.
UPDATE: The signal triggered at 8:25 AM PST.
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Friday / January 17, 2020 / Noon
That's because USDCHF died this morning at 8 AM. In fact, most of the pairs you follow died between 8 AM and 8:30 AM, though EURGBP has been gradually climbing steadily since then, but only for a total of six pips.
GBPJPY hasn't been very active since 9:30 AM but has been gradually falling relatively steadily since then. But you should have expected this. If you go back to Post #2, you will note that the times you listed for trading during the NY Session were from 5 AM to 9 AM, so double check for the presence of liquidity/volatility before executing any trades between 8 AM to 9:30 AM, and after that, you probably shouldn't trade at all under normal circumstances.
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My hunt for a partner who could trade via Binary dot com has not been fruitful, and if I go back to trading OANDA, I will initially be making only pennies per trade, so I just called Nadex and asked them to fix my demo account, where almost my entire balance has been frozen/locked in "Reserve" for months.
Once that's fixed, I will look into the feasibility of purchasing in-the-money contracts in accordance with the Shoreline/Riverbank Touch forecast model during what I am verifying as the most inactive market hours such that the trades are profitable despite the exchange's totally ridiculous risk-reward structure.
If I can make like 20 trades in a row without a loss, I might go ahead and risk real money in my live account, since I will then be making about $15 per transaction.
Presently, given that Nadex schedules its end-of-day processing between 2 PM to 3 PM PST, I figure this would mean placing orders between Noon to 2 PM and/or 7 PM to 9 PM.
(Another possibility is 2 AM to 4 AM depending on market structure, but I am wary of these hours since the market often reverses direction between the open of the London and New York sessions, and to make matters worse, I am likely to be asleep if and when this happens.)
Once that's fixed, I will look into the feasibility of purchasing in-the-money contracts in accordance with the Shoreline/Riverbank Touch forecast model during what I am verifying as the most inactive market hours such that the trades are profitable despite the exchange's totally ridiculous risk-reward structure.
If I can make like 20 trades in a row without a loss, I might go ahead and risk real money in my live account, since I will then be making about $15 per transaction.
Presently, given that Nadex schedules its end-of-day processing between 2 PM to 3 PM PST, I figure this would mean placing orders between Noon to 2 PM and/or 7 PM to 9 PM.
(Another possibility is 2 AM to 4 AM depending on market structure, but I am wary of these hours since the market often reverses direction between the open of the London and New York sessions, and to make matters worse, I am likely to be asleep if and when this happens.)
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Friday / January 17, 2020 / 6:30 p.m.PST
Okay, you have the configuration for your One-hour NADEX in-the-money Strategy charts all set up. So one of the first questions you need to answer is: On those rare occasions when a pair violates the forecast model, is the release of some type of economic data always the cause?
And if so: Does the price action observed over time suggest that any decisions based on the forecast model when no economic data is scheduled to be released will almost inevitably lead to successful trades?
Okay, you have the configuration for your One-hour NADEX in-the-money Strategy charts all set up. So one of the first questions you need to answer is: On those rare occasions when a pair violates the forecast model, is the release of some type of economic data always the cause?
And if so: Does the price action observed over time suggest that any decisions based on the forecast model when no economic data is scheduled to be released will almost inevitably lead to successful trades?
