Do you ever sleep???
No rest for the wicked?
My Big Moves Journal
- Thread starter expiated
- Start date
No rest for the wicked?
IN-THE-MONEY CONTRACT PURCHASE TIMES:
Nadex is open for trading from 3 p.m. PST Sunday through 1:15 p.m. ET Friday. However, it shuts down each day for end-of-day processing between 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. PST on Monday through Thursday.
This means Noon PST is the last 2-hour binary option contract I should purchase for the morning, so I should plan to purchase a contract at 10:00 a.m., 11:00 a.m. and/or 12:00 p.m. provided the market is no longer evidencing much volatility/liquidity.
Possible purchase hours (PST) provided the market is exhibiting little signs of life at the time...
Nadex is open for trading from 3 p.m. PST Sunday through 1:15 p.m. ET Friday. However, it shuts down each day for end-of-day processing between 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. PST on Monday through Thursday.
This means Noon PST is the last 2-hour binary option contract I should purchase for the morning, so I should plan to purchase a contract at 10:00 a.m., 11:00 a.m. and/or 12:00 p.m. provided the market is no longer evidencing much volatility/liquidity.
Possible purchase hours (PST) provided the market is exhibiting little signs of life at the time...
- 10:00 AM
- 11:00 AM
- 12:00 PM
- 07:00 PM
Last edited:
Note...
Technically, you could purchase a 12:00 p.m. contract at 1:00 p.m. or a 7:00 p.m. contract at 8:00 p.m. for the second half of the duration of the contracts, but the risk-to-reward ratio by then would probably be so rotten you wouldn't want to. Go ahead and check this out anyway though, just to be sure.
Remember when interpreting data to analyze not only trend lines, but also...
Technically, you could purchase a 12:00 p.m. contract at 1:00 p.m. or a 7:00 p.m. contract at 8:00 p.m. for the second half of the duration of the contracts, but the risk-to-reward ratio by then would probably be so rotten you wouldn't want to. Go ahead and check this out anyway though, just to be sure.
Remember when interpreting data to analyze not only trend lines, but also...
- The slope of the Riverbanks and Shorelines
- The relative location of candlesticks within each of the designated price ranges
- On which side of the baseline the vast majority of candlesticks are forming
Last edited:
Nadex does not seem to be fully operational. I suppose this is because tomorrow is Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Otherwise I would have checked to see what the risk-reward structure looked like for EURGBP and AUDJPY (if they offer these contracts).
At 75.81 AUDJPY has made contact with the top band of the inner shoreline envelope. The top bands of the outer shoreline evenlopes are somewhere in the neighborhood of 75.90, so I wanted to get the risk-reward ratio on a 76.00 two-hour binary option put contract, where I would not expect price to go, especially since the day-to-day sentiment is bearish.
At 0.8529 EURGBP opened near the top band of the inner shoreline envelope, but the riverbank and shoreline envelopes are all sloping upward and the pair is currently stuck in consolidation, so I will just watch it for now, even though the day-to-day sentiment is bullish. Besides, my numbers tell me the pair will not hit significant statistical resistance until about 0.8553 at the earliest.
I am long EURUSD since I expect the pair to rise.
NZDJPY is rising, as anticipated, but it is currently at the top of the inner shoreline envelop, so I have to wait for it to pull back before I can enter a long position.
USDCHF's 0.9671 open changed its day-to-day sentiment from bearish to bullish, so my previous plans (recorded in my forecast journal) have now been rendered null and void.
At 75.81 AUDJPY has made contact with the top band of the inner shoreline envelope. The top bands of the outer shoreline evenlopes are somewhere in the neighborhood of 75.90, so I wanted to get the risk-reward ratio on a 76.00 two-hour binary option put contract, where I would not expect price to go, especially since the day-to-day sentiment is bearish.
At 0.8529 EURGBP opened near the top band of the inner shoreline envelope, but the riverbank and shoreline envelopes are all sloping upward and the pair is currently stuck in consolidation, so I will just watch it for now, even though the day-to-day sentiment is bullish. Besides, my numbers tell me the pair will not hit significant statistical resistance until about 0.8553 at the earliest.
I am long EURUSD since I expect the pair to rise.
NZDJPY is rising, as anticipated, but it is currently at the top of the inner shoreline envelop, so I have to wait for it to pull back before I can enter a long position.
USDCHF's 0.9671 open changed its day-to-day sentiment from bearish to bullish, so my previous plans (recorded in my forecast journal) have now been rendered null and void.
Last edited:
So interestingly enough, my big moves journal has morphed from a quest to find big moves into an effort to avoid them. Accordingly, the above trade technically should not be executed in Nadex given that it was not 7 PM. But presently, I'm just running the numbers, seeing if the odds play out as predicted by my forecast model(s).
In this case, they did, with the prognosis that AUDJPY would not rise between 3:30 PM and 5:00 PM PST turning out to be true.
USDJPY has been trading within a very tight range for thee-and-a-half days now, so I deem it to possibly be the best pair to trade for the 7 PM two-hour binary option. The upper and lower boundaries of the inner coastline envelope are at 110.28 and 110.01 respectively. The boundaries of the outer coastline envelopes are at around 110.43 and 109.86, which makes the likelihood of the pair’s rate reaching the 110.40 strike price less that the chance of it falling to 110.00 price, so if I were able to place an order through Nadex, it would be for a USDJPY in-the-money 110.40 binary option put contract.
I have no idea what the 7 PM two-hour binary option contract might have been worth, if anything, but it looks like there was little danger of it being out-of-the money at expiry...
All fourteen of the pairs I follow had a big move at 11 PM PST and continue to move at midnight with the exception of EURGBP, USDCHF, and USDJPY.
All of these pairs except for CADJPY and NZDJPY moved in the direction the day-to-day trend suggested they should, so it will be interesting to see if they continue on the same trajectory and whether CADJPY and NZDJPY reverse course.
A number of them are now within close range of their designated amplitudes, so I will be evaluating whether the purchase of in-the-money contracts with strike prices located to the outside of these key levels would have been profitable had Nadex been open for normal business.
All of these pairs except for CADJPY and NZDJPY moved in the direction the day-to-day trend suggested they should, so it will be interesting to see if they continue on the same trajectory and whether CADJPY and NZDJPY reverse course.
A number of them are now within close range of their designated amplitudes, so I will be evaluating whether the purchase of in-the-money contracts with strike prices located to the outside of these key levels would have been profitable had Nadex been open for normal business.
Last edited:
CADJPY reversed course, but NZDJPY did not. GBPJPY and GBPUSD didn't either, but in their cases this made sense. Due to Friday's close, at this week's open GBPUSD had turned from bullish to bearish and GBPUSD had gone neutral. However, with their 11 PM to 12 PM PST moves they entered their daily-price-range support zones, so it made sense for them to bounce off these levels. The bottom line is evaluating which direction rates are going to go after making a major move against their prevailing trends remains a matter of detailed evaluation.
Last edited: