My amzn & Google naked put sell is In deep red . How to play it on Monday to recover the loss.

[IAS_LLC]

lol. You trade for a living?

The pendulum swings both ways.

I trade, don't read a crystal ball.

 

[Same Lazy Element]

Can you please run that by me one more time, I am not too quick. 25% and 40%, how does that equate 60% of become president?

You’re fast enough, dude It’s a simple conditional probability. You have P(nomination) = 40% and P(presidency) = 25%, which means that P(presidency|nomination) = P(presidency)/P(nomination) = 25%/40% = 62.5%.

It’s from predictit.com from a few weeks ago, I don’t follow these markets as much as I should. Also, I am not saying that’s what’s going to happen, simply that it’s what the market is forecasting. Of course, if you think it’s wrong, you’d wanna buy Bernie nomination and short his presidency in a ratio.

 

[ironchef]

You’re fast enough, dude It’s a simple conditional probability. You have P(nomination) = 40% and P(presidency) = 25%, which means that P(presidency|nomination) = P(presidency)/P(nomination) = 25%/40% = 62.5%.

It’s from predictit.com from a few weeks ago, I don’t follow these markets as much as I should. Also, I am not saying that’s what’s going to happen, simply that it’s what the market is forecasting. Of course, if you think it’s wrong, you’d wanna buy Bernie nomination and short his presidency in a ratio.

Does it mean he has a ~60% chance of becoming my next president?

Can I use the same logic to trade options?

 

[PoopyDeek]

was naive of me to wait until super Tuesday it apppears

We're f*cked either way. Trump or this Miami transplant who wears knee-high socks and flip flops in the pool.

 

[PoopyDeek]

Does it mean he has a ~60% chance of becoming my next president?

Can I use the same logic to trade options?

62.5 obv conditional on nomination.

 

[ironchef]

62.5 obv conditional on nomination.

So if I want to bet that he will be the next president, what is the odd, what is my risk:reward?

 

[ironchef]

62.5 obv conditional on nomination.

I am dense. He has a 62.5% chance he will be elected if he wins the nomination?

 

[Cuddles]

We're f*cked either way. Trump or this Miami transplant who wears knee-high socks and flip flops in the pool.

I wanted lube and a warning though

 

[Same Lazy Element]

I am dense. He has a 62.5% chance he will be elected if he wins the nomination?

Exactly, that’s what is implied in the betting markets.

I just looked, he’s now at 38% to win the presidency and his nomination is at 66%. You can do the math yourself to get the updated conditional probability

https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/Prez-Election

 

[PoopyDeek]

So if I want to bet that he will be the next president, what is the odd, what is my risk:reward?

it’s a (delimited; to 100) binary. 62.5 pays 100. Binaries are probabilities.