Mental Ceilings and self fulfilling prophesies

Quote from Girlpower:

an inground belief in a 'truism' that may be fundamentally flawed.
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in all honesty, i don't understand where the 1 point a day target/limit/whatever comes from. it's certainly not how i look at the market.

i figure out what i need to put in my pocket over a period of time, then work backwards to find a strategy that can make that number.

if 1 pt - or X points, for that matter - isn't enough, stop trading and either get a different job or get a different strategy.

i must be missing something from this conversation...
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:


Let's do the numbers. $5,000 account, trading 1 lots in ES. One full point is $50 a day or 1% a day. Barely worth getting up for , right? That's over 200% a year without compounding, which means your account tripled. Lot of that going on here? I don't even want to think about what it amounts to with daily compounding.
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It's not exactly like that. You can't compound each +1% if you start trading with for example 5 contracts. You would have to be up 20% to adjust your size to 6 contracts. Let's count it that way:
Trade 1 contract for every $5k. Start with $50k, make 2 points /day (one ET member claims it's his long-term average... ha ha ha). After 1st month, you're up $20k. Acct grows to $70k, so you trade with 14 contracts, make $28k, and so on and on...

After 12 months your acct grows to $2.78M. Nice return, but please let's get real now: Girlpower wrote "I know people whose avarages did not dropped below 5..." :eek:
Hey, look at this way: add all 30-minute or -even better- 1minute bar ranges...

I wonder if boys and girls from JP, Merrill, Salomon Smith, etc. are reading this forum. If they do, they must

Round
On their
Trading
Floors
Laughing! :D
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I'm not sure where this 1 point a day average came from, but I have to say I think it is flawed. I pointed out in the earlier thread on returns that two ticks a day per contract using conservative leverage would make you one of the biggest superstars in trading. And I'm supposed to accept that the average ET member, even allowing for the greater intelligence of Et'ers, is doing double that?
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I read a quote attributed to Linda Radschke that a daytrader should make a profit equal to the daily range.
 
I don't know. I've been following dbank's journal and am very impressed with it. Not so much with the numbers he pulls, although that in itself is nice, but with the consistency of the guy. He rarely has a down day and definitely no down weeks. Also, he can do it no matter what mood the market seems to be in.

I point this out because I think when you are that consistent, you become that much more confident. You know you can handle most any situation the market can throw at you. You can increase your contract size w/out too much fretting and even if you have a down day or two, you know you will be net positive for the week. Which in turn lets you trade your method without the need to tweak anything thereby making things worse (usually). Nothing crummier than that eroding feeling of "Shit, I must be doing something wrong, let me just modify this a little..."

Consistency is key for me.
 
Quote from DT-waw:



It's not exactly like that. You can't compound each +1% if you start trading with for example 5 contracts. You would have to be up 20% to adjust your size to 6 contracts. Let's count it that way:
Trade 1 contract for every $5k. Start with $50k, make 2 points /day (one ET member claims it's his long-term average... ha ha ha). After 1st month, you're up $20k. Acct grows to $70k, so you trade with 14 contracts, make $28k, and so on and on...

After 12 months your acct grows to $2.78M. Nice return, but please let's get real now: Girlpower wrote "I know people whose avarages did not dropped below 5..." :eek:
Hey, look at this way: add all 30-minute or -even better- 1minute bar ranges...

I wonder if boys and girls from JP, Merrill, Salomon Smith, etc. are reading this forum. If they do, they must

Round
On their
Trading
Floors
Laughing! :D
More...


Do you know what the merril Lynch minimum accout is??
 
Do you know how liquid forex market is? Is there any forex day trader at a bank who is making 1000%/year? I've never heard about any one. And it's 24h market not 6.5h like ES, SP. No commissions. But the funniest thing is calculating profit potential by adding intraday bars ranges.
 
Quote from DT-waw:

Do you know how liquid forex market is? Is there any forex day trader at a bank who is making 1000%/year? I've never heard about any one. And it's 24h market not 6.5h like ES, SP. No commissions. But the funniest thing is calculating profit potential by adding intraday bars ranges.
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If it is so completely impossible to do better than the much vaunted 1 point per day avarage, then please explain why in your opinion that might be. Proper explanation that has no flaws. So far all you have done is poke fun at it, but it has not yet once been backed up by a good sound logical explanation as to why.

You've taken a position in this discussion, through a process of casting scorn on the suppositions that more than one in fact can be done, but have yet to substantiate that with a well reasoned argument. Please back that position up. It would greatly add to the discussion. If you can't substantiate that position you have taken, then you have by default added strength to the argument that it can be done, and demonstrated that it is mental ceilings and self fulfilling prophesies at work and not reality.

Thanks

Natalie
 
Quote from dbphoenix:



It's not impossible. But it's a silly goal.
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Why would it be a silly goal? After all, with such a goal, even failure to achieve it would propel the levels of success to a new plane would they not?

Best

Natalie
 
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