Mental Ceilings and self fulfilling prophesies

Quote from bubba7:




There is a major safety in where these people have put themselves. It is a major major survival defence mechanism. People here are very safe because of their expertise in using the safety they find in practising this survival technique. It is not oriented to fear of failure at all. It is an outcome of an integrated set of pictures they have regarding stepping out of a very safe proven survival mode into a place where they are surrounded by

fear of success.

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Isn't that interesting. Not least beside the previous thread I started here, where the notions of Fear of Success were heavily discounted by many (but far from all) of the participants in that thread. The major argument being that fear of failure was the consideration, or that there was no fear...

And yet in this context, that very same phenomenon is cropping up again.

Interesting connection between the two threads.


Best

Natalie
 
How many people participate in these polls?

I don't think that 1 pt is the limit. If I were to believe it, I would not even bother to play this game.
 
Beliefs limit what elements of the environment (data) your mind perceives. One cannot perceive events that are outside of the limits of beliefs (either conscious or sub consious). If your beliefs are structured so that you believe anything can happen in market action, you are able to perceive objectively whatever is happening, and take appropriate action. Thus there is less time spent between the action of the market and your appropriate response to that action. How many times have you heard or seen the market ripping against a trader, well past their stop, and heard a rationalization that supports a limiting belief.

What can't happen? if you find yourself finding an answer to that questions when you are trading, you can start to find some limiting beliefs and areas where you can examine yourself for your own improvement.

What can happen? Well, what do you believe about your own performance? If you believe that the average gaining day is 1.5pts, then how would that affect your own governors on your performance? I bet that tying too much into these averages has a negative effect on one's personal performance.

And fyi, Bubba, making the assertion that an average is not a significant representative statistic is not implying that trading is a zero sum game. I would probably need a map to get from my point to your assertion, and have to learn greek in the process.
 
Quote from GetWhatUDeserve:

Beliefs limit what elements of the environment (data) your mind perceives. One cannot perceive events that are outside of the limits of beliefs (either conscious or sub consious). If your beliefs are structured so that you believe anything can happen in market action, you are able to perceive objectively whatever is happening, and take appropriate action. Thus there is less time spent between the action of the market and your appropriate response to that action. How many times have you heard or seen the market ripping against a trader, well past their stop, and heard a rationalization that supports a limiting belief.

What can't happen? if you find yourself finding an answer to that questions when you are trading, you can start to find some limiting beliefs and areas where you can examine yourself for your own improvement.

What can happen? Well, what do you believe about your own performance? If you believe that the average gaining day is 1.5pts, then how would that affect your own governors on your performance? I bet that tying too much into these averages has a negative effect on one's personal performance.

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I agree entirely. It represents very well the reasons I started this thread. The removing of mental ceilings to my way of thinking crucial to any kind of success in any venture and trading is no different. mental ceilings are also far too prevalent on ET aren't they....

Best

Natalie
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

About the 1 point / day reasoning ... just a few thoughts,

During year 2000, many pros did a lot better than 1 pt/day.
But in year 2001 and year 2002, the average goes way lower.
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yeah - there were days when es was around 1500 pts - then it went down to under 800.

should make a difference i'd say.
 
Quote from GetWhatUDeserve:



snip snip

And fyi, Bubba, making the assertion that an average is not a significant representative statistic is not implying that trading is a zero sum game.

I, of course agree with you 120%. there is zeroconnection between the two. I just said one thing wsn't important and changed to a subject that was helpful maybe.

I would probably need a map to get from my point to your assertion.

Draw one if you wish. I certainly can't because I see no connection; if you see a connection map away and enjoy it.


and have to learn greek in the process.

Again, how you do maps and connect languages to them is your forte, not mine.
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I threw some color in as an experiment. What I am saying is different than you read and that's the Greek reference. My point wasthat marginal analysis is where it is. Your thesis above fits with the viewpoint I espouse it looks like.

My view of learning to trade goes in 75,000 increments per level and contract annualized.

A point a day for 250 days is 12,000 bucks a year.

Trading with 5 contracts is hard to do below an hourly rate of 1,000 bucks an hour. Anyone can draw a line on a graph and see what the point slope per hour is to do that. (clue= 4 points an hour). Has anyone ever seen a slope of a trend at 4 points an hour. Has anyone ever seen "chop" moving at less than a spread and frequency of less than 4 points an hour??

Everyone can start with the minimum and then add contracts above the minimum after a while. Trade any one of 100 edges.

No matter how you do it it blows up using the compound interest formula after a few months or years.

If you get to continuous, seamless trading you get to rich for sure.
 
Quote from gerry875:



yeah - there were days when es was around 1500 pts - then it went down to under 800.

should make a difference i'd say.
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Yet ES is only around 1000 now, and I know people whose avarages did not dropped below 5...

There is also the question of a large number of points available in the very large and volatile swings that were taking place at the time...

Best

Natalie
 
i guess the whole story boils down to that everything has to be done one first time before everybody accepts that it CAN be done - that does not mean EVERYBODY can do it.

have you ever achieved something that you didn't know you can do it? great feeling that is, right?!

afterwards you know you can do it - and you wonder why you doubted at first. that's the point where things start getting really interesting (and funny ...).
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:



snip

An interesting example is that why we believe the Earth is round now as oppose to its being flat :) I don't think many of us have travelled far enough to look at Earth by themselves.

I ended a meeting DC once and picked up an icebucket and put a hole in it with a ball point pen. I focussed it on the sidewalk in front of the Amtrack station. A board member came up to me to look along with those assembled. He said "leave it to you" Is it cheating to just look at the earth's shadow with out going anywhere??. Just for your amusement too.

Thus, part of the mental block can be "removed" when the trader can collect enough information to "believe" in the new methods.

trade only "overbought" ES each day for a week. Buy at beginning plus 5 min (go on late, always) of over bought sell at 5 points profit and do not wait for the end of the "overbought".

But how much information is enough?

This could be a neat test. I think at ET it's about three years minimum. We could do 6 polls and then get a trend to analyze
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I'm not sure where this 1 point a day average came from, but I have to say I think it is flawed. I pointed out in the earlier thread on returns that two ticks a day per contract using conservative leverage would make you one of the biggest superstars in trading. And I'm supposed to accept that the average ET member, even allowing for the greater intelligence of Et'ers, is doing double that?

Let's do the numbers. $5,000 account, trading 1 lots in ES. One full point is $50 a day or 1% a day. Barely worth getting up for , right? That's over 200% a year without compounding, which means your account tripled. Lot of that going on here? I don't even want to think about what it amounts to with daily compounding.

No doubt plenty of people have done that for a year or two. Do it for five and you can have the money in the world to manage, not that you'd need it.
 
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