Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

Heard people always say if you can’t trade well in trend days (like today), you can’t trade any days…

I once again did not do well in trend day. The “too high to buy; wait for a deeper and nice retracement” mindset does not work in trend days. All setups look not terrible!

I don’t know who would lose money trading today besides me… trend days often makes me feel retarded. The only thing I did right today is not to go short.

Trade 1: long, after 3 pushes up, price pulled back and continued to move higher. I got in at the break out bar continuation pattern thinking the trend is going to be very strong. No FT, exit at doji bar. -6tk
But market pulled back a little deeper at 8:25am. Now I was not sure if the trend is still strong to buy at the top, so I decided to wait for a 2 leg pullback. Market then became a bull day, keep breaking out all the pivot highs along the way, I was left out.

Trade 2:. 11:06. 2 leg pullback long. Stopped out. -5tk
Trade 3: reneter: stopped out -7tk
Trade 4: Bear trap. Re-enter long, did not want to hold and trail my stop since it’s after 12:30. Out for a scalper profit. +13tk

Clearly tight stop didn’t work very well in trend day. Not sure if it’s a good idea to leave a bit wider stop(a lower pivot low) in trend days.

PnL: -$34, -5 pts, 4 trades, 25% winrate

I think as long as I am able to trade this type day with confidence and success, I know my trading skill will be on the next level… When can I get there? :-(((((

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Quote from Matcha:

Heard people always say if you can’t trade well in trend days (like today), you can’t trade any days…

I once again did not do well in trend day. The “too high to buy; wait for a deeper and nice retracement” mindset does not work in trend days. All setups look not terrible!

I don’t know who would lose money trading today besides me… trend days often makes me feel retarded. The only thing I did right today is not to go short.
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Don't feel bad, I started my day in a pretty good hole trading CL with 2 b/e and 2 max losses before the NYMEX pit even opened and I was trading in the direction of the trend! I just happened to trade uncharacteristically sloppy while that particular trend was trying to decide just how much longer it was going to remain trendy :D

The only mistake you made was not staying aggressive to get positioned for whatever direction price would run. The trades you took looked fine, it's the ones you didn't take, such as that support re-established nicely after your first trade. Go long on the pivot, stop below the low and see if previous resistance can break out. Assume plenty of counter-trend shorts jumped in and will have to cover.

It looks ugly at the time, but unless there's a reason for price to reverse, think continuation and get positioned again. You'll either catch a run at some point or you'll have so many scratch trades in a row you'll walk away in disgust about 3.5 minutes before the best move of the day transpires :p
 
Quote from NoDoji:

The only mistake you made was not staying aggressive to get positioned for whatever direction price would run. The trades you took looked fine, it's the ones you didn't take, such as that support re-established nicely after your first trade. Go long on the pivot, stop below the low and see if previous resistance can break out. Assume plenty of counter-trend shorts jumped in and will have to cover.

It looks ugly at the time, but unless there's a reason for price to reverse, think continuation and get positioned again. You'll either catch a run at some point or you'll have so many scratch trades in a row you'll walk away in disgust about 3.5 minutes before the best move of the day transpires :p
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yeh, agree that's the the biggest mistake of the day. Was waiting for a 2nd leg down to buy, but in trend days we just don't get it... :( I will learn to get a bit more aggressive in trendy days..
 
Quote from Matcha:

Heard people always say if you can’t trade well in trend days (like today), you can’t trade any days…

I once again did not do well in trend day. The “too high to buy; wait for a deeper and nice retracement” mindset does not work in trend days. All setups look not terrible!

I don’t know who would lose money trading today besides me… trend days often makes me feel retarded. The only thing I did right today is not to go short.

.......

Clearly tight stop didn’t work very well in trend day. Not sure if it’s a good idea to leave a bit wider stop(a lower pivot low) in trend days.

PnL: -$34, -5 pts, 4 trades, 25% winrate

I think as long as I am able to trade this type day with confidence and success, I know my trading skill will be on the next level… When can I get there? :-(((((
More...

Hi Matcha,

You are not alone! I felt bad all day that I could not be more productive in an UP day like today. Looking back, the up trend in the morning didn't give good BUY signals using Al's strategies on the 5 minute chart. There were no clear cut H2 setups nor the pullback retracement went all the way to the 20EMA.

Using a 2 minuted chart would have been better to spot some good setups especially those M2B(s).

For tight stop loss, I think Al always suggests that wider stops to be used in strong trending days with a wide range (ES went up by 20+ points).

I think you should continue to stay with your setup for trending days or make some adjustments to use lower timeframes (2 or 1 minute charts). I read somewhere that Al uses the lower timeframe charts once in a while expecially when the market is in a strong trend.

As to my trading:
- 5 trades 3+, 1 b/e, 1 -, +1.25 points.
- Too many hesitates today in both entries and exits.
Lessons learned: Need more confidence and decisiveness to trade with the trend and admit that the trend was over by 10:00am p.t. The market went very flat for the rest of the day.

You did the right thing to stay with the trend today to take LONG trades only. Those were the high probability trades.

Don't let today bother you. We all know that YOU CAN TRADE TREND DAYS. Remember those 2 LONG trades you took yesterday morning during the UP TREND!

Best of trading tomorrow!

--po
 
Took 1 trade today. Stopped out.

11:51am long. H2 long, Breakout PB long, The trade location isn’t the best. The risk and reward could be good, So I took the trade. Market started to overlapping at the top of the range. Stopped out -4Pts

PnL: -$22. 1 trade

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Quote from Matcha:

Took 1 trade today. Stopped out.

11:51am long. H2 long, Breakout PB long, The trade location isn’t the best. The risk and reward could be good, So I took the trade. Market started to overlapping at the top of the range. Stopped out -4Pts
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Hi Matcha,

After 2 strong up days, today's PA has been in a narrow consolidation phase.

I took 4 trades today: 2 Shorts after mid morning (1+, 1-) and 2 Longs in 2nd half of the day (2+), net gain +1.75 ES pts.

Good trading to you tomorrow!

--po
 
Quote from Matcha:

Took 1 trade today. Stopped out.

11:51am long. H2 long, Breakout PB long, The trade location isn’t the best. The risk and reward could be good, So I took the trade. Market started to overlapping at the top of the range. Stopped out -4Pts

PnL: -$22. 1 trade
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Hey Matcha, Been away yty. I saw your trend day loss. Don't worry about it. Happens to us all. We r waiting for the pullback and nothing that makes sense happens for us. I think even the best traders miss oppties on trend days. I think that even when they make it on trend days, there is alot of luck in it too. Like NoDoji said, they are trading and scratching several times.

Yty, I think you probably just shouldn't have trading then to take that long. Of course I'm saying this after the fact and I probably would have lost a few points too yty. Thing is that market was rotating in that mess and for a push up to occur, it would have had to been strong. I would have prefered a short rather than a long. At least it doesn't look like there was enough evidence for a push up. Especially since it was a hr before close. Anyway, there is always tommorrow :)

Good luck!
 
Yesterday I played the late day breakout pullback + 2 leg pullbacks long, it didn’t work. Today the prefect text book same setup+ Cup w/ handle pattern showed up, I chickened out…. Great!

In red again, small losses. So far this week, I am doing OK to keep the losses small, but I am doing terrible on pulling triggers.

Trade 1: 9:44. 2 leg pullback , stopped out -7tk ,
Trade 2: 9:58, re-enter. Price started to overlap here. Stopped out. +1tk

PnL:-$37,-6pts, 2 trades, 50%winrate
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Quote from Matcha:

Yesterday I played the late day breakout pullback + 2 leg pullbacks long, it didn’t work. Today the prefect text book same setup+ Cup w/ handle pattern showed up, I chickened out…. Great!

In red again, small losses. So far this week, I am doing OK to keep the losses small, but I am doing terrible on pulling triggers.

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Hi Matcha,

I think so far this week you have demonstrated that you are a very good defensive player. You win big but lose small. I think it may have somewhat caused you to be a bit cautious to pull the trigger. Decisiveness will come when you have 100% confidence in your trading plan. Right or wrong, your edge will win over in the long run.

I took 3 trades today. Lose 0.75 ES points. Mostly scratch trades.
Lessons learned: I, too miss pulling the trigger on the late day B.O. I have seen this kind of action so many times in the past that it will work especially after a very long narrow range consolidation (3 hours!). I think I am going to add one more setup to consider for my trading. :)

One note - the cup and handle formation wasn't as prominent on the ES chart as compared to the YM chart.

Good trading tomorrow. Remember, you are doing well this week to have followed your plan and have played defensively!

--po
 
Matcha i know how you feel not sure if you are live yet but part of trading i feel is staying in the game till you can catch those moves that make your day/week/month etc. Taking small losses will seem insignificant once that one trade comes around.
 
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