Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

Greetings Matcha,

I must admit, reading your journal is one of the highlights of my day. Watching your astonishing growth and progress is truly refreshing. But lately, I've noticed that you have a few "beliefs" about this idea of "winning percentages" that probably need to be debunked.

I believe that somewhere along the line, someone convinced you that you needed a very high percentage of winners to even consider yourself in the professional ranks. Matcha, this is not the case. It tears at my heart every time I read in your journal that you are getting down and saddened by your trading percentages.

Well, I've got good news for you lady! I'm enclosing an article from my files by a trader named Stan Kim. This article appeared in the February 2001 issue of Active Trader Magazine. The title is "The High Probability Myth". How that particular article from ten years ago popped into my brain, I'll never know.

In any case, it is my hope that after reading this article, you will know and understand that, even with your current percentage, you are most definitely on the right track. Further, you have no need to feel anything but pride in your "discipline" and your remarkable progress thus far! Just keep on doing what you're doing girl!

Enjoy!

PS- I'm praying that these 4 attachments show up. Because for other than plain Jane emails, for old guys like me, I'm not very handy at doing these kind of things.
 
THe valid file extensions are:

gif jpg png doc xls pag txt pdf zip mq4 rar ex4


Can your e-mail be saved in TXT (plain text) format? Or else I think this forum's software will try to interpret your attactment as a picture.
 
Greetings B,

There are 4 jpgs, I've tried twice to use the ET Codes provided, but the pictures won't print? Any ideas are welcome:(
 
Quote from KDASFTG:


....
I believe that somewhere along the line, someone convinced you that you needed a very high percentage of winners to even consider yourself in the professional ranks. Matcha, this is not the case. It tears at my heart every time I read in your journal that you are getting down and saddened by your trading percentages.

.....
More...

Thank you for your posting and kindest words. You have known how much I admire your wisdom and enjoy reading what you wrote!! You spot on "someone convinced me need a high win percentage." You, wentfishing, Nodoji etc. all of you good traders are mind readers!

I have been reading lots of blogs and lots of articles about how important it is. And I think the high winrate has something to do with my personality too. I like the instant gratification and encouragement to keep a positive attitude.

But like you said, lately I have been feeling it causes some more hesitations while trading. I would love to read the article! That might take my mindset to a different level! :p

Thank you!
 
Matcha,

As you can see, I'm a rookie with ET Protocols for sending attachments :) If you PM me with your email, Ill send the article off tonight. In the meantime, I'll be learning how to do this thing correctly.
 
Quote from KDASFTG:

Matcha,

As you can see, I'm a rookie with ET Protocols for sending attachments :) If you PM me with your email, Ill send the article off tonight. In the meantime, I'll be learning how to do this thing correctly.
More...

sure!! sorry I am a rookie too, can't help you.... :p :p
 
Thank you, PO and CollegeTrader.

I don't know how long it is going to take for me to be trading with no hesitation and be in green on a consistent base. Again, it also relates to my personality: a bit undecisive, overthinking too much, lots of "what ifs", want some sort of perfection... I am libra btw...

Seems it's another step for me... I often wonder How hard this could be?Why took you so long?

But in the meanwhile, to conquer this, I also believe that time, experience and day to day pre market and post market analysis will help me make objective, robotic and instinct trades... it might take longer for me to "get there"...

The "sucky" part of trading is you never know when you can make it and how good and how sustainable you are in trading. Thanks to my right brain. My right brain always tells me to pursue something I have passion for. I will succeed as long as I commit. I hope my right brain is doing it's right thing.:p
 
Greetings Again Matcha,

Since I was rummaging around in my old files this evening, I found this little gem that I though you might enjoy as well.

Are Your Odds Of Becoming A Successful Trader really 1 in 10?

A Surprising And Encouraging Answer William J. Welsh, J.D., Ph.D.

It is often said that a new stock or commodities trader has only a one in ten chance of succeeding. Is this true? If we think about it a bit we can quickly determine that not only is this untrue, it is absurd, To the contrary, we will see that your chances of success or failure are always 100%!

First, though, let's accept as a fact that research shows that only one in ten traders ever becomes successful. I am not sure whether this in fact is indeed true or not, but for the purposes of the point of I wish to make, lets assume it is true. Let us assume that only one in ten traders actually succeeds. The question, then becomes as follows: "Since it is true that only one trader in ten succeeds, does this mean that your odds of success are only one in ten -- and that, therefore, the odds are hopelessly against you?" The answer is no. The fact that only one in ten succeeds does NOT mean this is YOUR chance of success. Here's why.

A person who concludes that his chances of success are one in ten has committed the logical fallacy of applying the concept of "odds" improperly. "Odds" -- i.e, probability -- can only logically apply to a future event that is outside of your control.

An example is the lottery Since the winning number is outside of anyone's control, the odds of any one person winning or losing can be determined, Now, if winning and losing in the markets was outside of your control, then using this approach would make sense. But, in actual fact, winning or losing in the markets is not only NOT outside of your control, it is TOTALLY and ONLY under your control. Each and every person who wants to trade has the same odds of becoming successful or failing -100%! If you do the right things to become successful, your chances of succeeding are 100%. If you do the wrong things, your chances of failure are likewise 100%

The encouraging truth at the bottom of this line of reasoning is that you and I need not fear the fact (which we accepted as true) that only one in ten succeed. Instead, we should embrace with confidence another fact -- that every single person who does the right thing will succeed and will be the successful one of the ten And that every single person who does not do the right thing will fail and will be one of the other nine of the ten. Of course, the above analysis requires that you take responsibility for yourself and make sure you learn the right thing to do. This is your responsibility and nothing comes easy.

On the other hand, when you understand the way success and failure works you are freed from the fallacy that life or trading is luck And, you are free to set about the task of learning what you need to learn with the confidence that your goal can and will be reached when you have learned to do the right things and then do them. Rather than "proving" your odds of success are one in ten.

The old adage that only one in ten succeeds merely "proves" that most people will not learn what they need to learn to succeed This may be a sad commentary about people, or an indicator of how hard it is to learn to trade, or an illustration of the lack of good trading information. But it has absolutely no control over your chances of success. Only you have the control and only you determine whether you succeed or fail.
:)
 
Quote from Matcha:

I don't know how long it is going to take for me to be trading with no hesitation and be in green on a consistent base. Again, it also relates to my personality: a bit undecisive, overthinking too much, lots of "what ifs", want some sort of perfection... I am libra btw...

Seems it's another step for me... I often wonder How hard this could be?Why took you so long?

But in the meanwhile, to conquer this, I also believe that time, experience and day to day pre market and post market analysis will help me make objective, robotic and instinct trades... it might take longer for me to "get there"...
More...

Matcha, for me it felt as if it was taking forever to get past the stage where I wasn't constantly overthinking, hesitating, thinking of the potential loss instead of the potential profit and moving my stop loss too quickly, then chasing the trade that would've been perfect and ending up with nothing or even a loss.

What made the difference for me was the constant meticulous post-market analysis, months of it (I still do it regularly). Now I'm very excited to put on the trades. Many setups are run of the mill, but when I see my favorite setups forming, I can hardly wait for my order to trigger.

I have precise rules to follow, and all my levels noted before I start for the day, so there's very little thinking/analyzing now, just making sure I'm on top of the levels all the time.

You'll get to the point you trust the setups and you're thinking about the potential profit, not worried about the potential loss, knowing they'll be covered by nice runners. You know your seat belt is on if a setup fails, and you know whether to wait for a new setup or switch sides quickly. It will become a routine job, interspersed with moments of excitement when you see your "golden" setups, and even though I know that "anything can happen", there really are some golden setups out there :)
 
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