Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

Quote from Matcha:

If the trend is very very strong. if I am entering on a first entry H2/L2. I will leave the stop at where it should be and hold for retrace. If the stop gets hit, I will either re-enter when I see another entry. or reverse if there is a strong trend from opposite side.

If I enter on a first pullback after the trend is reversed(H/L and L/H). at that point ther EMA isn't yet clearly up or down. If I see too much sideway PA, my plan is I will exit regardless... In reality, I did poorly on this type of trade...
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Thank you Matcha.

For With Trend PB trades, other than H2/L2 & M2B/M2S setups, I also look at the stochastics on the 2 min and 1 min chart to identify the pullback in overbought and oversold conditions or use the methods as described on pages 143-144 & 161-162 in Marcel Link's book.

When the trend is up in the higher timeframes 5 min, 15 min and 30 min, I will keep an eye on the O/S stochastics for potential entries.

The underlying concept is the same - IDENTIFY the TREND, wait for a PB, trade with the trend, stay with it until the trend breaks.

I think the key to success is to identify the trend early on. Hopping on it too late is risky, just like some of my recent losing trades.

Good trading to you!

--po
 
Quote from Snowman75:

Haven't seen an IB chart in ages (as I am on Tradestation), however I think the consensus is that IB chart sucks. I think almost everyone who has IB uses a different charting platform which gives them more flexibility.

I think flexibility is keep to success so if you at any time feel restricted with the contract, with the platform or with anything else then make the change.

My 2 cents.
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Hi Snowman,

Thanks. I know IB's charts is far less superior than others like TS. But for what I need (so far) I can live that for now. I don't use a lot of fancy indicators or charting features. But I will consider changing the platform when I need more capabilities/flexibility or if the performance deteriorates.

--po
 
I am probably the biggest idiot today. All these hesitations… I hesitated on the 2 sell signals today(before the news) and only watched the sell off leave without me.

7:20 a nice Low1 and breakout pullback short set up. I hesitated because all the trend lines and support level are too close.

7:40 another pullback short sell signal, I hesitated again…

I am not sure how to chase on the news, but it was painful to look at the sell off and thinking I wasn’t part of it…

Trade 1: 2 leg move at EMA, 2nd chance entry. No reason not to take the trade, the day here is unfolding as a bear day. But I will not hold for a long run because price is trying to form a test of LOD –a D/B more likely. So I took my 20pts profit right there.

Calling it a day…

PnL: $107, 22Pt, 1 trade

Weekly:
PnL: $118
Pts: 27
Avg trade per day: 2
Profit Factor: 1.88
Largest losing position: $37.40
Largest winning position: $117
Win rate: 43%

Monthly:3 weeks
PnL: $372
Pts:87
Avg trade per day: 2
Profit Factor: 1.69
Largest losing position: $72
Largest winning position: $117
Winrate: 46%

The performance is still poor. Lots of back testing, forward testing and chart analysis ahead. But it looks like I am at the point that it’s very difficult for me to do something very crazy and blow up my account. My trading plan isn’t the best but it looks fairly decent. So I want to take a little step ahead. In Feb, I plan to spend one day per week trading in live. I am not going to trade live fulltime yet.

But if I can’t handle live one day/per week or I mess up with my rules, I will go back to sim.

Have a great weekend.
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Quote from Matcha:

I am probably the biggest idiot today. All these hesitations… I hesitated on the 2 sell signals today(before the news) and only watched the sell off leave without me.


Monthly:3 weeks
PnL: $372
Pts:87
Avg trade per day: 2
Profit Factor: 1.69
Largest losing position: $72
Largest winning position: $117
Winrate: 46%

..... So I want to take a little step ahead. In Feb, I plan to spend one day per week trading in live. I am not going to trade live fulltime yet.


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Hi Matcha,

No you are not the biggest "id___". :) :)

I too hesitate a lot today. I started the day very late. Took 2 scratch trades including your trade #1.

Congratulations on your decision to go live in February. You have demonstrated in your last 3 weeks to stay on course with your plan and your discipline --> positive PnL, very selective trades (avg. 2 trades a day), a good profit factor, kept your ratio of largest lost to largest gain to a good margin. And the most important thing is you've kept your largest lost to only $72 (14 YM pts) which shows you have exercised your stop very well. That's a key to success!

Keep up the good work and the good trades.

BTW, have you decided on how you are going to pick which day of the week to trade?

Best of trading next week! Go Matcha Go!!!!!

Have a great weekend everyone!

--po
 
Quote from PatientOperator:


BTW, have you decided on how you are going to pick which day of the week to trade?
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Thank you. Will update you on all my trades.

I am thinking mostly Mondays. Usually no reports on Mondays...Definitely not on Fridays. Also depends on whether there is an opening trend and my focus in the morning, You know monday morning is always very tiring for me, hee hee... :p
 
Quote from Matcha:

Thank you. Will update you on all my trades.

I am thinking mostly Mondays. Usually no reports on Mondays...Definitely not on Fridays. Also depends on whether there is an opening trend and my focus in the morning, You know monday morning is always very tiring for me, hee hee... :p
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Thanks Matcha.

Ha Ha. Be sure to set your alarm clock on Mondays! :) :)

For Live Trading, I usually pick Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays or when there is an opening trend pending. Fridays are usually not a good day for me.


Quote from Matcha:



Weekly:
PnL: $118
Pts: 27
Avg trade per day: 2
Profit Factor: 1.88
Largest losing position: $37.40
Largest winning position: $117
Win rate: 43%
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Wow! How do you manage to trade 10 trades this week with the largest losing position at $37.40. It's equivalent to 7 YM pts or 3/4 ES pts.

I can only explain that you are very careful with your stops and most importantly, you enter your trades with razor sharp precisions.

I need to learn from you for your willingness to scratch a trade and not hang on to a loser. And also to sharpen up my entries with your precise execution!

I also admire your your money management strategies that you will always safe guard your account.

You are a good trading role model!

--po
 
Quote from PatientOperator:

Thanks Matcha.

Wow! How do you manage to trade 10 trades this week with the largest losing position at $37.40. It's equivalent to 7 YM pts or 3/4 ES pts.

I can only explain that you are very careful with your stops and most importantly, you enter your trades with razor sharp precisions.

I need to learn from you for your willingness to scratch a trade and not hang on to a loser. And also to sharpen up my entries with your precise execution!
....
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So far I found the formula works for my trades is to try to achieve"tight stops, small losses, more than 50%winrate and try to get 1:2 R:R ration". This will put at least my account to positive and breakeven. Then I can slowly learn each day to let the winners run longer and learn eliminate bad trades. This also would require precision. I am not there yet. But hight win rate(eventually more than 65%) with small losses seems work for me and my personality at this stage. I need the instant gratification to keep a positive attitude in trading career. I am sure lots of traders would disagree and think tight stops are thousands cuts to damage acccount....

In reality for all the trades I took, I really dont need a large/wide stop to prove I was wrong. 85% of time when I was stopped out, that means my trading direction is wrong.... I am glad the stop pulled me out of the trade.
 
Quote from Matcha:

So far I found the formula works for my trades is to try to achieve"tight stops, small losses, more than 50%winrate and try to get 1:2 R:R ration". This will put at least my account to positive and breakeven. Then I can slowly learn each day to let the winners run longer and learn eliminate bad trades. This also would require precision. I am not there yet. But hight win rate(eventually more than 65%) with small losses seems work for me and my personality at this stage. I need the instant gratification to keep a positive attitude in trading career. I am sure lots of traders would disagree and think tight stops are thousands cuts to damage acccount....

In reality for all the trades I took, I really dont need a large/wide stop to prove I was wrong. 85% of time when I was stopped out, that means my trading direction is wrong.... I am glad the stop pulled me out of the trade.
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Hi Matcha,

I really like what you said about your "tight stops, small losses" formula for your trading style and money management. Don't worry about what others will say. The most important thing is you have a very good plan and you are consistent in following your plan. Your goal to become consistently profitable (CP) will be there for you. I believe Al uses tight stops for his trades too.

I need to keep track of my stopped out trades to see if they actually achieve the same effect like yours.

Thanks again for sharing your insight.

--po
 
I traded in live today. I woke up and saw we were in an up trend in Globex chart. So I decided today might be the day that I could pull some live trades.

First bar reversed the trend, then we has 3 pushes down to the Support level in Globex chart. Then market formed a bar wire pattern stalled here. I took a long here. I used limit order to get in near the bottom of the BW TR after I see internal BO/PB and Bear trap.

Trade 1: 7:03, long. Globex wedge bear flag pullback. Day chart. 1st pullback after a wedge reversal or triple bottom 1st pullback. Took my ideal 20+ profit here when see bars started to overlapping. +23Pt.

Trade 2: 8:42, long. 2 leg pullback to EMA,+Breakout pullback,+ Failed D/T, I entered the trade early. So I had to sit through a minor pullback (2nd entry long, H-S continuation). + 24Pts.

I am done for the day. I SOH and only traded on real paper for the rest of the day.

I feel very grateful today. Market didn’t act out on me! Probably a beginner’s luck? No matter what it is, I should not get too excited. I will continue to study.

PnL: +$230, 47 Pts, 2 trades
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