Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[Bolimomo]

8/6/10 Friday.

ES dropped from 1127 to around 1111 at 05:00 am PDT. This was a drop of almost 16 points. This is quite *significant*. (Dow about 140-150 points). Anything that caused ES to drop 10+ points is significant. Especially in such a short duration. About 5 minutes. (Between 2 yellow circles on the picture.)

US market opened at 06:30 am. A drop like that, there is a good chance of bouncing. And it did.

Take a Fib measurement. This is crucial. Price retraced about 50% to below 62%. (But far from 76%, let alone 100%). This is DOABLE... for a second stage down run. Any retracement more than 62%, and especially more than 76%... don't bank on it.

* Looks like there have already been 3 waves up.
* 07:00 am is the exact reversal time from a one-way run (up).

Your bet is on a reversal down.

The 2-stage runs happen more often than not for "significant", "meaningful" moves.

 

[Bolimomo]

The second part:

Do a Fib PROJECTION based on the retracement. That's your potential Second-Stage Run. A 16 point down run at 05:00 am, it can potentially run another 16 points down. (Dow 140-150 points?)

You may not believe in Fibonacci analysis. And some in this forum dismissed it as voodoo. Heck some even dismiss all Technical Analysis as voodoo. Whatever.

I didn't make this up. You can see where the price stopped on the second down run. A little over 100%. Okay it wasn't exactly 100.00%, but maybe 105%. That's darn good enough for me. I would have started taking profit at the 90% mark.
(Between 2 blue circles)

Now market was in a very tight range after 9:00 am. Because it had already done a 2-stage down run, don't believe in any "break" in the down direction. Unlikely to get anywhere. The best is to scoop up some at the low of the tight range and see what happens.
(Green rectangle)

 

[~~~]

Quote from Matcha:



Let's support each other and work hard to be CP soon. So we can all be in Asia celebrate and party!

In America..they always like to meet at the Top of Empire State Building in New York City. (eg: movie~The Love Affair and Sleepless in Seattle)

I think for You and PO should meet at a Special Place like The Bund in Shanghai at nite

Just imagine.. strolling along the Bund in the romantic atmosphere with all the Beautiful Gothic, Romanesque & Renaissance, Neo-Classical and Art Deco Architectural Buildings and over ~looking the Huangpu River and Spectacular View of Pudong ..Wow!.. It's amazingly beautiful and romantic!

Hope U2 can be CP very soon and meet very soon!

P/S: PO .. now you have the 'Greatest Motivation' to be CP .. hehe

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from ~~~:


.....
Just imagine.. strolling along the Bund in the romantic atmosphere with all the Beautiful Gothic, Romanesque & Renaissance, Neo-Classical and Art Deco Architectural Buildings and over ~looking the Huangpu River and Spectacular View of Pudong ..Wow!.. It's amazingly beautiful and romantic!
.....

What a great parallel!

US = #1 nation (so far); China = #2, will be #1 eventually
NYC = US's financial center; Shanghai = China's financial center
Empire State Building; Oriental Pearl Tower???
Next to Hudson River; Next to Huangpu River
View of Manhattan; View of Pudong

A Chinese version of "Sleepless in Seattle"...

 

[~~~]

Quote from Bolimomo:

What a great parallel!

US = #1 nation (so far); China = #2, will be #1 eventually
NYC = US's financial center; Shanghai = China's financial center
Empire State Building; Oriental Pearl Tower???
Next to Hudson River; Next to Huangpu River
View of Manhattan; View of Pudong

A Chinese version of "Sleepless in Seattle"...

hehe .. not only the Americans are smart and romantic .. the 'Chinese " also very smart and very romantic LoL

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

.......
I thought you were only going to study from a book or your laptop. You want to trade in day hours too?

.......


RE: I don't think TradeStation offers financial index futures in other countries. There are other US based brokerage firms that do. To trade Forex you need a forex account, which is not the same as the regular futures account. Do you have one?

Yes, nothing is free in HongKong. $$$$$

Not necessarily trade in coffee shop, would like to have internet connection with me all the time. Sufing internet, reading books, people watching, sipping coffee, eating deserts complete my afternoon coffee shop activity.

Sim trading forex. The tradestation Sim forexaccount looks like it's real time data feed...

 

[Matcha]

Quote from ~~~:

hehe..my sweet sister is not only well-loved in America but in Shanghai too! You're indeed a sweet~sweet honey

Now your big sis is in "Peace Hotel" in Nanjing Rd .. after restoration now is "Fairmont Peace Hotel" ... i'm meeting my friends for afternoon~ tea and wish you can join us for dinner at Xin Tian Di.
But if you're in HK now... just have great fun and enjoy great food in Hong Kong.

wow, it's a very nice hotel. Vintage but luxurious!

Thanks for the invites. Next time we can go have a drink at Paulaner after dinner , then dance in Park 97



I only know these old places, used to be very popular. Now there must be more hot places... You have tell me all the cool places...

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

8/6/10 Friday.

ES dropped from 1127 to around 1111 at 05:00 am PDT. This was a drop of almost 16 points. This is quite *significant*. (Dow about 140-150 points). Anything that caused ES to drop 10+ points is significant. Especially in such a short duration. About 5 minutes. (Between 2 yellow circles on the picture.)


.....

The 2-stage runs happen more often than not for "significant", "meaningful" moves.

Yesterday I totally ignored the premarket selloff, the first stage... Did not look at the premarket action...

 

[Matcha]

Quote from PatientOperator:

Hi Matcha,

First of all, congratulations on reaching the 100 pages mark on your excellent journal!!!!!

Thank you!

I am more familiar with Granville Road, TST area and the Monkok shopping area. Causeway Bay is always very busy, I got lost every time I was there. But it is a nice place to shop. When you are at the Monkok tennis shoes stores, you can bargain with the store to get a good deal. Isn't that there is the famous "women street" shopping area nearby?


North Point Eggette sounds really yummy! Got to try that next time. I like egg puff. I can eat the whole pack by myself !!!!!



--po

Thanks for the bargain advice!
There is Temple steet and Women's steet in Monkok. I can feel lots of young energy while walking at Monkok area. Lots of young kids! Also, tons of street food! I like The Langham hotel Monkok near by. The shops in in the building are all nice and affordable. I like "I.T." they carry some unique contemporary designer brands. And the little "i.t." is cool for younger custemers. The energy in Monkok is very different with TST. More tourists carry designer labels in TST boosting HongKong economy

North point makes the best Eggette!

Happy trading next week!

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Matcha:

Yesterday I totally ignored the premarket selloff, the first stage... Did not look at the premarket action...

Hmmm... you must.

There really is no "premarket" for YM and ES. 24x5. You must see them as such. 24x5. What happened in Asia, then Europe, is a prelude to what's to come in the USA. You don't need to deal with the "gap" anomaly. Observe the runs and count the waves and 2-stage runs.