If you make one random call a month on which day to buy you will be a trading guru with large following. %%%Not a prediction.
Losing my edge
- Thread starter Ernsuksathaporn
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If you make one random call a month on which day to buy you will be a trading guru with large following. %%%Not a prediction.
I read somewhere that buying and selling stocks during specific days of the week does give the trader a small trading edge.
This edge is even bigger with specific months of the year.
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In my opinion, edges taking advantage of market inefficiency (either manual or automation trading) won't last long. They may work for months or years but eventually they'll be neutralized by market efficiency. If your edge relies on certain kind of indicators or patterns, it's likely you lose your edge sooner or later when market condition changes. Almost all signal provides in famous signal services such as Myfxbook, MQL5 or Zulutrade disappear after 1-2 years. All the famous traders or investors are more or less fundamentalists. I don't think Goldman Sachs makes money using market inefficiency. Also, highly optimized backtesting algos always fail in the long run. Winning Edge > Winning Trades > Losing Edge > Redesigning the Strategy > Winning Edge > .... This cycle repeats.
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%%If you make one random call a month on which day to buy you will be a trading guru with large following. %%%Not a prediction.
LOL; never happen/markets are not random-- random is a favorite of fake/talking snake news ……………………………………………………………………………………………………...
How about the basic technical inefficiency which is buyer/seller overcomes seller? When you say pattern, what kind of pattern are you talking about? The word pattern is ambiguous.
Brownian motion (Gaussian distribution) is not random if someone can track the movement of every molecule and their interaction with every other molecule, using Newton's law, that someone can then predict and track that molecule's movement exactly.
Casino use a chip that generate random number (technically called a pseudo random number generator) to set the slot machine payout. Those random numbers are strictly speaking non random if you can get a printout of the random number series prior to installation.
The same argument applies to stock price. %%% Not a prediction, but a calculation.
Have a good trading day @murray t turtle. You gave me lots of ideas to contemplate. Thank you.
%%Brownian motion (Gaussian distribution) is not random if someone can track the movement of every molecule and their interaction with every other molecule, using Newton's law, that someone can then predict and track that molecule's movement exactly.
Casino use a chip that generate random number (technically called a pseudo random number generator) to set the slot machine payout. Those random numbers are strictly speaking non random if you can get a printout of the random number series prior to installation.
The same argument applies to stock price. %%% Not a prediction, but a calculation.
Have a good trading day @murray t turtle. You gave me lots of ideas to contemplate. Thank you.
OK
Its not gambling or a coin flip;
I seldom, if ever flip silver quarters..................................................................NOT bank insured-- unless you keep copper clad coins in the the bank/LOL
,
To an engineer who can determine the initial conditions, the forces of the flip, air resistance, etc. a coin flip is not random either. Remember Ed Thorp, the great trader and math genius was able to predict the roulette wheel by timing and made $$$ in roulette. %%% Not a prediction.%%
OK
Its not gambling or a coin flip;
LOL
%%To an engineer who can determine the initial conditions, the forces of the flip, air resistance, etc. a coin flip is not random either. Remember Ed Thorp, the great trader and math genius was able to predict the roulette wheel by timing and made $$$ in roulette. %%% Not a prediction.
YES/fun read.
But he had his brake lines strangely goofed up !!!!! And the casino said ''we don't want you here[to mr Thorp]'' WHY NOT, mr Thorp asked?? Casino security said ''NO reason/ we just don't want you here''/LOL[Source= Jack Schwager top trader book]
On the flip side... quality/ accurate entry really dictates the trade.... sloppy entry equates to
Sloppy trade with larger risk & poor management.... that said, agrees with the latter part of your post!