Losing my edge

[ironchef]

@ironchef , what's your current position on the matter? I won't shout or debate, just curious.

Personally, I don't think risk management can turn a losing method into a winning method, like the old saying: Can't turn a pig's..... I was eager to see if @Buy1Sell2 could show us how instead of just preaching to us.

Actually I tried using a random number generator to generate stock prices and "traded" using "stop loss" and "trialing stop", no cigar. Not sure if the codes were error free though.

 

[userque]

Personally, I don't think risk management can turn a losing method into a winning method, like the old saying: Can't turn a pig's..... I was eager to see if @Buy1Sell2 could show us how instead of just preaching to us.

Another reason, imo, @Buy1Sell2 doesn't get much of a reaction when he says that, is because people are used to him saying that. As I recall, there was a long thread where this (sub?) debate happened. I don't think he offered much more (except repetition of the same phrase) than what he offered here.

Actually I tried using a random number generator to generate stock prices and "traded" using "stop loss" and "trialing stop", no cigar. Not sure if the codes were error free though.

Stock prices don't have a uniform distribution. You'd have to code in a realistic distribution as well...for the open, high/low, and close.

 

[ironchef]

Stock prices don't have a uniform distribution. You'd have to code in a realistic distribution as well...for the open, high/low, and close.

OK back to the drawing board. Maybe it will work this time.

 

[userque]

OK back to the drawing board. Maybe it will work this time.

I assumed you were using daily bars. If so, you can download data freely for multiple instruments, and use that data for testing.?

 

[orbit23]

You never had an edge in the first place... it was just beginners luck and the conditions were favorable for the strategy.

Market was crazy volatile in March, It's rarely ever like that. Just look at VIX chart. It happens LITERALLY once a decade!

They say the market is the same it has always been. It's always changing That's probably one of the main reasons why it's challenging and why it takes a long time to learn.

Scalping on 1/2min works well when volatility is high, but when it's not, you are going to get chopped up and it will be very hard for you to find an edge. Not to say it can't be done, but when volatility is low, either chase volatility thru other assets(there is always something moving) or zoom out to higher timeframes (focus on daily, 4H, 1H, you can view 15min and 5min too, but i'd recommend sticking with 1H for trades).
I even think they said the same on one of those SMBcapital videos.. That they trade the market(indices) when the volatility is high, but when it's not they scan the marketplace for opportunities. They chase volatility.

 

[ironchef]

I assumed you were using daily bars. If so, you can download data freely for multiple instruments, and use that data for testing.?

Actually I am trying to simulate a randomly generate bunch of prices, including intraday to test @Buy1Sell2's thesis that risk management is the ONLY EDGE. If so, I should be able to generate profits from a set of random prices by managing my risks, i.e., use a tight stop, use trailing stops to let profit runs, trade often trade small.... like trying to invent a perpetual motion machine?

Since I now cut down my actual day trading to practically nothing and lengthen my trade's time frame, I have too much free time on my hands.

 

[notagain]

Two minute NQ, prove your edge with 7 pt profit target and 7 pt stop. For longer trades you need very strong trend support.

 

[userque]

Actually I am trying to simulate a randomly generate bunch of prices, including intraday to test @Buy1Sell2's thesis that risk management is the ONLY EDGE. If so, I should be able to generate profits from a set of random prices by managing my risks, i.e., use a tight stop, use trailing stops to let profit runs, trade often trade small.... like trying to invent a perpetual motion machine?

Since I now cut down my actual day trading to practically nothing and lengthen my trade's time frame, I have too much free time on my hands.

I had a feeling you were up to that.

I suspect, after you finish, you'll wonder whether it works on real data, and not just your simulated data.

If you've got free time, maybe sharpen your coding skills. Consider this simple problem:

If we list all the natural numbers below 10 that are multiples of 3 or 5, we get 3, 5, 6 and 9. The sum of these multiples is 23.

Find the sum of all the multiples of 3 or 5 below 1000.

This is one of hundreds of problems, from simple to difficult, taken from https://projecteuler.net/archives . Consider solving this in VBA, using the worksheet cells for input/output only (no formulas).

(That site is more about number (math/science problems). Other sites have both number and text/string problems. https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/t...ding-challenge-websites-of-2016-fb8a5672d22f/ )

Another project could be to practice using arrays/lists/etc. by converting your current sheets that use VBA and worksheet functions, into to pure VBA worksheets: using the cells for input/output only. IOW, all computations will be done via VBA.

Your code will run much faster, the fewer formulas you have in cells.

Later, learn C# and OOP. Just my opinions.

 

[murray t turtle]

Hi guys, I know there are tons of experienced trading in here. I started day trading futures(Micro E-mini) this March. Although I had experience in trading other financial instruments for a year and a half now(stocks, forex, options). I was experimenting with different time frames and different instruments. I came to realize that I really like trading the shorter time frames like the 1min and 2min charts. I currently use the market profile and some order flow to give me confluence on trades.
I started my first month trading live with a 25% profit, probably beginner's luck. Now I have been in a losing streak for the past 2 weeks, wiping all the gains and losing even more.
I decreased my trading size and tried to make my losses as small as possible. I still can't find a way to come back and win again. I feel like I lost my edge and nothing seems to work...
What should I do? If any experienced trader can shed some wisdom, thank you.

%%
Take off a week or 52 weeks 'till you find an edge;
stocks or etfs. Worse thing to do is leverage no edge; or even worse leverage no edge on one minute charts...…………………………………………………………………………………….

 

[ironchef]

%%
Take off a week or 52 weeks 'till you find an edge;
stocks or etfs. Worse thing to do is leverage no edge; or even worse leverage no edge on one minute charts...…………………………………………………………………………………….

Risk management (and Kelly) may not be the ONLY EDGE but is very important, allows OP to live to fight another day. %%% Not a prediction.