Lois Lerner Emails Released: "Lincoln Should Have Let The South Go..."

Ricter said:
Not sure about that, Tsing. I read recently that modeling what percent of consumers will buy hairspray is no less complex than modeling the climate.
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Since I work on this day in and day out for the financial sector I will comment on this.

The predictive and adaptive decisioning models put together to gauge consumer behavior and market to them is orders of magnitude more complex than any climate model. Our teams are much larger and contain many more PhDs than any university climate model team. Secondly our results are put to the test and if they don't match reality then we add no value (and will be fired) - Climate modelers are not fired when their models are completely wrong.

In my industry the biggest insult is to tell someone that they should go work on climate models - it means they are completely worthless.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
Complex, sure. But those far smarter than both of us on the subject matter predominantly believe that it is a problem that we must deal with sooner rather than later or not at all. They are not equivocating. The people going with the "narrative" are the ones who subscribe to the considerably minor view largely endorsed by vested interests. They latch onto words like "complex" and then slither slowly into the realm of denial. Since you seem to love a conspiracy, which side do you realistically think is more likely to be engaging in one?
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I don't love a conspiracy. But I do identify when there is evidence of one.

What I do know is that climate change data hasn't been proven correct, and many - if not most - of the predictions by those smarter than the both of us have turned out to be incorrect thus far. On the other hand, evidence has shown (as previously mentioned) to show that so-called conspiracy theories in the government hiding something are not far off the mark. Each time more "stuff" surfaces, it points in that direction. Hence the smoke and fire analogy.

Each time the climate predictions come out "off" they prove more and more that the facts just aren't known. I suspect that has to do with the complexity of the equation they are trying to solve.

That's the last I'll discuss climate change with you - it's not a topic I give a shit about either way. I'm on record here for not believing one way or the other (as I don't have evidence either way). If you want to debate climate change, there are plenty of threads on the subject and you can run about with Jem and the others until you get your fill.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
You are now clearly implying Obama's involvement. Thanks for clarifying your view.
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You can make up as much as you'd like about what I'm implying, but it doesn't make it so. I suspect it's because you're - as usual - looking for a fight and will use whatever you can to slant the discussion in your favor. Nothing new there.

What I've said, am saying and will continue to say is that there isn't any evidence of Obama's direct involvement, nor would we ever see evidence if there were. So we will never know.
 
Tsing Tao said:
...I suspect it's because you're - as usual - looking for a fight and will use whatever you can to slant the discussion in your favor. Nothing new there.

What I've said, am saying and will continue to say is that there isn't any evidence of Obama's direct involvement, nor would we ever see evidence if there were. So we will never know.
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No, I'm not looking for a fight. I'm only pointing to your casual implication of possible (probable?) complicity because you don't have evidence to the contrary.

In other news, you "don't know" if Obama was born in the US, right?
 
Frederick Foresight said:
No, I'm not looking for a fight. I'm only pointing to your casual implication of possible (probable?) complicity because you don't have evidence to the contrary.
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Yes, we know. You're always trying to point out implications and assumptions and inconsistencies that we all have, while ignoring those that come from yourself in some desperate attempt to yell "gotcha!" or something. I get it. But you might want to consider that this behavior is what makes you so unpopular socially. Perhaps you actually realize that and don't behave this way in real life, I don't know.

Frederick Foresight said:
In other news, you "don't know" if Obama was born in the US, right?
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I do not know if he was born in the US. If he wasn't, we'd never know either way. Regardless, I believe he was born in the US, despite some strange evidence that hasn't been addressed on the social security number, etc. The reason I believe he was born in the US is because:

1. I have no conclusive evidence to the contrary.
2. There is no precedent from something similar that happened before (and was previously denied to be true).
3. No new information continues to surface to influence the topic - it is for all intents and purposes, the same recycled crap over and over again.

In the case of the IRS, number 1 is true. Numbers 2 and 3 are not met. So I believe there is something there.
 
Tsing Tao said:
Where was that printed? The Onion?
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So let me ask - what input data does the average AGW climate model utilize? Daily temperature data over time from a finite set of geo stations (of course they ignore stations that they don't like), maybe humidity readings thrown in plus some CO2 readings. From a modeling perspective, not very complex.

The average financial retail model includes over 400 input attributes with geographic information over time. By comparison the current climate models are child's play.
 
gwb-trading said:
So let me ask - what input data does the average AGW climate model utilize? Daily temperature data over time from a finite set of geo stations (of course they ignore stations that they don't like), maybe humidity readings thrown in plus some CO2 readings. From a modeling perspective, not very complex.

The average financial retail model includes over 400 input attributes with geographic information over time. By comparison the current climate models are child's play.
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You must have missed my comment where I stated that I will not be discussing the climate any further, and the reasons I have elected not to. Though in your defense, it was stated to Freddie.

Allow me to requote:

"That's the last I'll discuss climate change with you - it's not a topic I give a shit about either way. I'm on record here for not believing one way or the other (as I don't have evidence either way). If you want to debate climate change, there are plenty of threads on the subject and you can run about with Jem and the others until you get your fill."
 
Tsing Tao said:
You must have missed my comment where I stated that I will not be discussing the climate any further, and the reasons I have elected not to. Though in your defense, it was stated to Freddie.

Allow me to requote:

"That's the last I'll discuss climate change with you - it's not a topic I give a shit about either way. I'm on record here for not believing one way or the other (as I don't have evidence either way). If you want to debate climate change, there are plenty of threads on the subject and you can run about with Jem and the others until you get your fill."
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You made comments about modeling. I was setting you straight.
 
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