Kudos to MMs

[GTS]

What, the model might be wrong!?! Oh my, I'll alert the media.

 

[nitro]

Quote from nitro:

SPX, 1270.59. FV, 1061.42. OFV, 1194.89. POFVF, 1157.92.

This market must be hanging on by dear life. If the model is wrong, then I have two theories. One is very simple to test since all it involves is a constant. The other is far far more complicated.

Even if I calibrate the model (OFV) to the market, POFVF says we go lower:

SPX, 1269.32. FV, 1062.49. OFV, 1271.34. POFVF, 1217.21

That is an interesting idea, to calibrate model on a daily basis to OFV, but trade POFVF.

 

[bc1]

Quote from GTS:

What, the model might be wrong!?! Oh my, I'll alert the media.

bowwow has the same problem with his model and both of these guys have probably obliterated their dad's accounts. Neither seem to have their own money to trade probably cause they lost it all.

Maybe nine-ender has the ticket here with his reverse numbers. I'd prefer to see those. Just like the odds favor doing the exact opposite of what grandsupercycle says.

 

[nitro]

Another interesting calibration. If I calibrate the model to year end targets (in this case 1350), I get (a POFVF that is) very close to what we are trading now:

SPX, 1270.12. FV, 1063.22. OFV, 1350.29. POFVF, 1277.93

These are all possible equilibrium. I have to think all of this through.

 

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from nitro:

Another interesting calibration. If I calibrate the model to year end targets (in this case 1350), I get very close to what we are trading now:

SPX, 1270.12. FV, 1063.22. OFV, 1350.29. POFVF, 1277.93

These are all possible equilibrium. I have to think all of this through.

Ever tried lithium?

 

[nonlinear5]

Quote from nitro:
If I calibrate the model to year end targets (in this case 1350)[/B]

I don't follow. Do you set the year end target for the model, or the model forecasts the year end target?

 

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from nonlinear5:

I don't follow. Do you set the year end target for the model, or the model forecasts the year end target?

GIGO

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from bc1:

bowwow has the same problem with his model and both of these guys have probably obliterated their dad's accounts. Neither seem to have their own money to trade probably cause they lost it all.

Maybe nine-ender has the ticket here with his reverse numbers. I'd prefer to see those. Just like the odds favor doing the exact opposite of what grandsupercycle says.

The logic in my "reverse indicators" was that Nitro's indicators were so bad in 2011 that there likely is some built in personal bias in his calculations. Unfortunately, when he starts tweaking his indicators to correlate to index values ( effectively rigging his system to be mediocre good or bad instead of just bad ), or listens effectively to others on here and vastly changes his parameters, the reverse indicators are no longer of any value.
We have no way to know unless he publishes his parameters; I'm not sure why he doesn't because we could probably collectively steer him to better parameters.

Grandsupercycle is a lost cause because his whole approach is intellectual fraud. For that reason, the site should kick him out.
Yet again he changed his call only 50 minutes between posts, with the SPX not even open during that time.

 

[trefoil]

Quote from arbs-r-us:

Ever tried lithium?

Is it combustible (ya know, as in helping you blow up)?

 

[stock777]

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