Kudos to MMs

Quote from nitro:

SPX, 1257.61. FV, 1073.76. OFV, 1175.14. POFVF, 1258.26.

5-Day POFVF = 1255.76 : 1260.76 : 1250.76 : 1233.76

Closing values for the year.
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FV seems to be about the worst indicator anyone's ever come up with and persisted with other an extended period of time. Could it be your own personal bias is so ingrained in the indicator that its an excellent fade for traders ? Because your own instincts for markets seem to be way off, so an indicator that systematically reflects that bias might be useful.

Perhaps run a model on 2011 that invests long the SPX for any time period the FV is lower then the SPX, and short any time the FV exceeds the SPX. Now, mathematically speaking, the question is could these excellent results ( I'm guessing here on the model result ) be due to random luck, or are we on to something, that being the fade potential of your trading bias ?

The answer to that question could lead to future trading profits.
I could make my own indictor here, RNFV. RNFV is the implied future value of the SPX based on reversing Nitro's indicator.

Simply put, RNFV = SPX - ( FV - SPX ) = ( 2 * SPX ) - FV
RNOFV = (2 * SPX ) - OFV

I suspect that RNOFV has potential. And, once I introduce RNPOFVF it might correlate with SPX closer then the other RN series indicators. FV/RNFV seem a little extreme at times.

So here goes. Today's RNOFV is 1340.08. suggesting a moderate bullish stance on markets.
 
Quote from arbs-r-us:

Its like you're watching a day old ticker tape sir. European markets in something of a melt-up today. You are the absolute definition of amateur hour.
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figured this guy out long ago. either the most useful idiot in history, or a total scammer.
 
Quote from nitro:

This is the tone the market will be opening to on Tuesday, and it looks ominous:

"Spain revises up 2011 budget deficit forecast to 8 percent of GDP; fresh austerity announced"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/spain-revises-deficit-raises-taxes-151259189.html
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George "W" Bush wants to aks you a question... "how do you put food on your family?" Seriously.. are you on food stamps? Welfare? Everyone has bills, even the bums on lower wacker. Nobody could be wrong this many times in a row and still be solvent.
 
Posted some time ago :

Quote from nitro:

I didn't know where to put this, so I decided it was probably best to put it here.

My dad owns two JPM funds, symbols OCGCX OBOCX, allocated 80:20 respectively:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=OCGCX+&=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=obocx

He just made 2.5% in one month.

I am motivated to tell you about this because in this environment, it is not terribly hard to make ~ 20% a year even in traditionally conservative investments, i.e., corporate bonds, OCGCX.
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So, given that 20% annually is easy, why do you need indicators that seem to be perpetually wrong ? Those guys at JPM must be geniuses if they can return 20% annually on low risk stuff.
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Posted some time ago :
So, given that 20% annually is easy, why do you need indicators that seem to be perpetually wrong ? Those guys at JPM must be geniuses if they can return 20% annually on low risk stuff.
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Not sure where the 20% figure came from. OCGCX historical performance is:
1-Year: 1%
3-Year: 9%
5-Year: 3%
10-Year: 3%

You'd be better off with an index fund.
 
Quote from nitro:

Short SPX 1229.89.
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Is it still the position? Just so you know, the new year has just gapped 20 points against it.

Since you like worthless inputs to toy with, most analysts are bullish for this year, maybe you could incorporate that into the equation. They did get it right for the first part of the last year though.

Otherwise we are addicted as always to this trainwreck, so happy new year, and keep up the bad work!!!
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Posted some time ago :

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Quote from nitro:

I didn't know where to put this, so I decided it was probably best to put it here.

My dad owns two JPM funds, symbols OCGCX OBOCX, allocated 80:20 respectively:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=OCGCX+&=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=obocx

He just made 2.5% in one month.

I am motivated to tell you about this because in this environment, it is not terribly hard to make ~ 20% a year even in traditionally conservative investments, i.e., corporate bonds, OCGCX.
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So, given that 20% annually is easy, why do you need indicators that seem to be perpetually wrong ? Those guys at JPM must be geniuses if they can return 20% annually on low risk stuff.
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Nine-Ender, nitro post that September (2009). Then poster piezoe is telling you to read what nitro is saying.
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Quote from piezoe:[/i

I was hoping not to have to spell this out for you, thinking you would catch on. Try going back to Nitro's original post and reading it again. Pay attention to the date. Make note of the phrase: "...in this environment." There now, I've spelled it out for you. I hope that helps.
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So I am guessing nitro understand the bull barket is starting in March 2009, and quantitative easing is start too in that time.
nitro: ("in this environment")
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SPX, 1279.44. FV, 1073.91. OFV, 1233.26. POFVF, 1199.91.

Added Short 1 more unit 1279.44 SPX.

<table border="1">
<tr>
<th>Date</th>
<th>Action</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>Units</th>
<th>PnL</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dec 20, 2011</td>
<td>Sell to Open SPX</td>
<td>1229.89</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>Open</td>
</tr>
<td>Jan 03, 2012</td>
<td>Sell to Open SPX</td>
<td>1279.49</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>Open</td>

</tr>
</table>
 
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