Pardon my post if it sounded as though I was using 20/20 hindsight as a means of just knowing it was a "just buy" market. Naturally, we all know that now and your point about 2007/2008 is well taken. That being said, however, there was a point in 2007 where I was pretty darn sure the market was going to be volatile for a long time, given the news and such as that time. Fast forward to say...2010, there was a time that I just knew the market was going to keep going up because of Fed intervention. 2009 was a difficult year for me even though I finished in the green. I'm not referring to hindsight; I was referring to experience. Henry has been around for a while and I would think someone in his shop would develop a strategy that would work going back a few years but it seems that wasn't the case, likely b/c of what emg posted above. Old habits are hard to make and no one like change. As I mentioned in an early post....the market eventually gets everyone. Just when you think you got it figured out.....
John Henry closes shop
- Thread starter tortoise
- Start date
He is the first domino to fall, the other big trend followers will be close behind..... mark my words.
surf
surf
well, it doesn't get you if you are trying to figure it out, but I will agree, it gets you if you think you have it figured out
the market isn't any smarter than you are
as a matter of fact, it's probably stupider, since a lot of dumbshits are trading it
but it's a helluvalot better to be wrong than it is to be broke
and I've been both
and I'll take wrong everytime
I can recover from being wrong
But once you are broke you have to get a real job
There comes a time in every traders life when it makes sense to risk a whole years profits on a big opportunity
But it's not like it happens very often, and you probably won't make money doing it all the time
maybe once
but then get back to trading
In that case you were smarter than him. Although, I think his mind was elsewhere by then - there's a point at which you're rich enough to spend most of your time on social juggling and enjoying the riches while the lemmings do the work. When motivation stops but you still have assets, why not keep receiving the fees. He only quit when there was a danger of not being net profitable (management fees). I only saw a few talking heads saying that sort of volatility was expected, volatility that breaks all the previous rules for the decade. What you said is still hindsight, until you really publicly told people to sell in 2007 or took major short positions. What is your view for 2013, soft buy, hard buy, soft sell, hard sell?
I suggest we be careful with assumptions of HFT. While they do a lot of scalping, they are branching out into other kinds of trading using AI.
I think that the reason that low volatility markets are tough is that scalpers and market makers have the edge. Volatility stops are too close to random noise and it is tough to separate legitimate moves from fakes
So you are saying that a general hedge fund rule is: the more money you manage, the older and uglier your girlfriend should be!
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I wonder why Mr Henry did not consult you before he retired?????
Maybe because a 63 yrar old trend follower has a'' bias????''
Keep wondering, you may find an answer in 60 years??;
Hope this helps ;it helped me
LOL
