Its impossible to be profitable in trading as a retail trader

d08 said:
1 year doesn't mean anything.
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Agreed!Good point .It is an excel formula , need to run it over 20 years data

I have no doubt it will work , 20 years data is similar to one year.I am experienced with the instrument for last 3 years .

No man's knowledge here can go beyond his experience.To acquire knowledge, one must study; but to acquire wisdom, one must observe

What I have designed is a mathematical formula , based on the option formula .When option formula goes bust , it won't work.As long as the option formula works , it will always work.:D
 
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You don't know that unless you test it out. Last 3 years have been easy, things that worked in the last 3 years typically didn't work in 08/09 (most not all).
 
comagnum said:
Yea it is possible but is way harder than most new traders could ever imagine. Once you cross about 10 years of experience and the first quarter million or so the chance of carving out a living start to increase. Thats why its best to have a job why building the base.
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What is ridiculous about 176 ticks a week on the German Dax?You need have a bit of wisdom , a little imagination and be a lot of thinking and THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX.You can not see the trees from the forest , for the succesful formula , because everything around you is dragging your imagination lower.

I think way differently to what you guys are surrounded by .I am surrounded by quality people that lift me higher and I get quality thinkin ,but I am dumber than 80 % of the people here.

176 ticks on dax is like 17.6 full points on s and p
 
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d08 said:
You don't know that unless you test it out. Last 3 years have been easy, things that worked in the last 3 years typically didn't work in 08/09 (most not all).
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I agree so when I devised this method , it has to work in brexit situations/extreme markets.The method I have is very robust.How I trade is unique and totally different to how you guys trade.

In 2015 it dropped 30% , in 2008 /9 it dropped 50% , so I am well prepared for it
 
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d08 said:
1 year doesn't mean anything.
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How long then as sufficient proof, in my view rarely trader they can making good profit a year, often I am hear many trader fail less than six month especially retail trader
 
radex78 said:
How long then as sufficient proof
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It isn't just about "how long".

If you have a stupid method with a high win-rate that doesn't use stop-losses, and which wipes out your account when you have a big loser, and you take one trade per year with it for a decade, then even a decade isn't "long enough", is it? A 15-year backtest over a few thousand trades might give you a pretty good indication, though. You have to achieve statistical significance before you can assess an "edge".
 
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quant983 said:
I read somewhere that trading books have caused possibly the largest wealth transfer in history. Boy, were they right. I have self taught myself technical analysis, fundamental analysis and price action. I have read hundreds of books on the subject. And over the years of trading NONE of them have been even close to profitable. Their only edge is that they just happen to time their trades in either strong bull or bear markets.

Believe me I have backtested countless strategies from candlesticks to MACDs to price action to FX correlations to Presidential Elections to Order book correlations to even solar and lunar cycles at one point. And guess what. None of them give you any kind of edge whatsoever because that information is already public and whoever disclosed it in the first place is probably rich by now with his or her book sales.

correlations that occur are only temporary. Quants and Hedge funds try to scalp this inefficiency. But even then, this can never be a consistently profitable strategy as competition increases to try to capitalize on this inefficiency. Eventually, this inefficiency is simply evaporated. And oh look: Hedge funds are dropping like flies if you read the news now because of so much competition. The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay liquid. And those who can stay liquid already have a ton of capital to win through sheer trial and error alone. Thats why 99% of retail traders consistently fail. They just don’t have the capital to win through trial and error.

As a closing statement, I would like to reveal a little secret. If you buy today and sell tomorrow, you have a 50/50 chance it will either go up or down. This is true for virtually every stock, index or forex out there. Go ahead and backtest it yourself if you want. (Boy, are those 1% of profitable traders laughing their guts out right now!)

Now that I look back, if I just followed the buy and hold strategy with most of my trades I would have been a millionaire within 5 years.
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yeah, i was literally attacked when i said no one has a crystal ball. Even technical analysis is 50/50 at best. I developed a winning strategy but i'm holding it close.
 
Trading 101 - The Internet is swarming with zillions of broke ass X traders that washed out trying to trade. These sharks target naive newbies. Any legit successful trader selling training will gladly volunteer to show your their audited tax returns showing their ROR and draw downs done by a nationally recognized firm that the buyer can look at and verify by contacting that firm directly. Not checking the seller s track record makes the buyer a real sucker in a scam. Any clown can create a strategy with linear upward sloping equity curve on back testing - this means absolutely nothing.
 
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