Its impossible to be profitable in trading as a retail trader

[newwurldmn]

Jack Bogle (founder of Vanguard) has said numerous times on various media and print, the "buy and hold" strategy will outperform most active managers and investors over the long term. Here's a good article regarding Bogle and some commentary regarding index investing.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/jack-bogle-the-undisputed-champion-of-the-long-run-1472855372

There is truth to it, but vanguards real outperformance came from its extremely low fees. It has funds that only charge 7bps/year!

 

[Trading Education Buyer]

You don't know that unless you test it out. Last 3 years have been easy, things that worked in the last 3 years typically didn't work in 08/09 (most not all).

just to please

 

[d08]

That's a very nice looking curve, congrats.

 

[Surprise]

I've seen similar curves trouble is they are calculated based on realized profits/losses and arent MTM - marked to market - .

 

[Trading Education Buyer]

I've seen similar curves trouble is they are calculated based on realized profits/losses and arent MTM - marked to market - .

.
I am very skeptical about back tests , especially with trending , t/a and price action .There are several factors which affect actual results
1)emotions , stress , psychology
2)mistakes
3)fills on prices
4)cognitive blindness

I hope I know enough to make it work in real , but I have also devised a " more mechanical method".

I hope I can make it work on real time , but it depends on the quality of people I hire to do the job.


old t/a system failed
Every week our system makes 100 to 200 pips , but we lose money every week after expenses , because we make many stupid mistakes

 

[radex78]

my trading is only about risk management ,if risk higher than 1 % , I won't trade

looking for 250 ticks profit a week option strategy

Very strict risk management, I am also often hear suggestion from expert that he gave speech on seminar forex will better manage strict risk less than 2 % each plan trading with making more opportunities hopefully will get more winning trades

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Very strict risk management, I am also often hear suggestion from expert that he gave speech on seminar forex will better manage strict risk less than 2 % each plan trading with making more opportunities hopefully will get more winning trades

Prudent Risk Management is the only true edge in trading.

 

[ScalperJoe]

There is truth to it, but vanguards real outperformance came from its extremely low fees. It has funds that only charge 7bps/year!

Good point. Fees can certainly erode gains, even with the "buy and hold" type. Bogle's commentary is fairly critical regarding not only fees but also the trading commissions one will incur over the course of their trading career. This is why he constantly stresses index investing (via Vanguard's mutual funds or ETFs, of course).

 

[newwurldmn]

Good point. Fees can certainly erode gains, even with the "buy and hold" type. Bogle's commentary is fairly critical regarding not only fees but also the trading commissions one will incur over the course of their trading career. This is why he constantly stresses index investing (via Vanguard's mutual funds or ETFs, of course).

It's amazing how 50bps or so can add up over 30 years..

 

[lawrence-lugar]

It's amazing how 50bps or so can add up over 30 years..

30 years is 30 lifetimes to a trader; you can do so much in a year.