Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

How accurately can you predict the next bar or candle?

  • Total voters
    39
  • Poll closed .
NoahA said:
I agree that you need to focus on the losses to the extent that all the best traders say to keep losses small and let the winner runs. But your whole thesis on visualizing how much you want to extract is like telling a fat 40 year old woman to visualize her ideal boyfriend and then prince charming will just magically come along.

Determining how much money you want is the dumbest way to do this and shows how full of shit you really are. There is no way for the market to give you what you want. All that you can do is capture a certain amount of what the market gives.

Of course you will never show anything because you are still struggling. Maybe you're trying extra hard to "fake it till you make it" because you have run out of ideas. And I get it, most here are not making money, but your "visualization" strategy is just as bad as the scammers.
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Hello NoahA,

Well, you seem to know exactly how to trade already. Keep going and grinding out.
 
NoahA said:
Of course you will never show anything because you are still struggling. Maybe you're trying extra hard to "fake it till you make it" because you have run out of ideas. And I get it, most here are not making money, but your "visualization" strategy is just as bad as the scammers.
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Hello NoahA,

Well buddy, I use to be like you as well. I use to be just like you, always wanting proof of traders making money before I think and bashing others who did not give it or show it, etc. etc. etc,. That line of thinking was getting me absolutely nowhere in my trading and it was blocking me from thinking and getting the right help I needed for myself.

The more you keep looking for proof (i.e., asking me or other traders for proof of profits, and thinking no-one on ET is making money, etc, etc.), the further away you get from confidence in your own capabilities and you keep being uncertain going down many rabbit holes.

You are thinking backwards.

The only proof you need to know is the proof you will provide by yourself, for yourself!

If you want proof, you have it RIGHT in FRONT of you, you saw it for 8 hours today right?? The ES was moving ALLL day, what more proof do you want?
 
NoahA said:
Yes, that was exactly the insinuation. I will say this though. At no point did he ever offer to sell it to me. I think the idea is for me to arrive at the conclusion that I need this badly, and that I would have to ask him to purchase the chance to use it.

Oh, and he also mentions how he has lots of friends at Google or Meta or whatever it was in order to show how he knows all the top engineers. So of course we would believe that he can code this special, magical algo.

One last point, he likes to show lots of different things. He likes to show you how he trades a range, he likes to show different versions of his algo, but you never really quite understand exactly what the magic is.
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He cant really say :"have to go,waiting for clients funds to hit my account" so hes gone old school hoping the potential purchaser is 20 years behind the world.

Red flag on this guy.Hopefully no targets on ET and he moves on.
 
volpri said:
And a lot of practice as one must hone their techniques.

I wouldn't sell at bar 9:35 because at that point we had.... what?

1)gap opening

2) bears failed to reverse and trends strongly up.

3) At bar 9:35 it is just a PB and profit taking at that point. We don't yet know if it is going into a range but there are some indications in may. Why? 2 legs up. Best to wait after profit taking and see if it continues up off the PB or morphs into a range.

4) However, if I did short bar 9:35 my stoploss has to be at min above high of bar 9:30 and if by chance I got taken out on that SL I would assume it is probably going up for at least a small third leg and I would double up long my previous short size. That puts the odds back in my favor of getting at least my loss back in short order and maybe print money.

The overall context is an opening spike (gap leg #1.), A PB (bars 8:30 - bars 9:00) then a continuation of the bullish spike. At this point it is for all practical purpose ....a channel. Leg 2 is made in that channel. Remember the market cycle. Trend ( BO...spike...etc), first PB then resumption (leg#2) becomes a channel. Channels usually start to flatten out and price goes into a TR or a several bar pause for profit taking. bars 9:05 thru bars 9:50. If keeps going sideway after that then it is likely going into a TR. Once price after those PB bars 30, 35, and 40 continue sideways for 20 bars counting from left (see my box) then we are no longer in a PB but a TR and that is when I use TR techniques. Sometimes I will fudge a little that and start before 20 bars if I think it is just going to keep going sideways.
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1. Like Ed Deming said, there is no substitute for experience and knowledge.

2. I bet the best coder in the world cannot algo/code what you just said.
 
NoahA said:
My god you are so full of shit. First you make it sound like to make money all we have to do is just visualize how much we want to extract from the ES, and now you're saying the key is to focus on the losses. Please show us just one chart with your entries marked by the platform like Volpri shows. Everything you type is bullshit. But since you say you're so good at clicking on the buy and sell button, let's see a chart of those trades.
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Actually @NoahA that is the only thing he said that made any sense to me.
 
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