Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

[volpri]

In real time in the thick of the battle, it is easy to be wrong, out of sync, e.g. sell @09:35 and SL at a loss? Maybe a wider SL but then I could end up with bigger cum loss at the end of the day?

It comes down to experience and technique.

And a lot of practice as one must hone their techniques.

I wouldn't sell at bar 9:35 because at that point we had.... what?

1)gap opening

2) bears failed to reverse and trends strongly up.

3) At bar 9:35 it is just a PB and profit taking at that point. We don't yet know if it is going into a range but there are some indications in may. Why? 2 legs up. Best to wait after profit taking and see if it continues up off the PB or morphs into a range.

4) However, if I did short bar 9:35 my stoploss has to be at min above high of bar 9:30 and if by chance I got taken out on that SL I would assume it is probably going up for at least a small third leg and I would double up long my previous short size. That puts the odds back in my favor of getting at least my loss back in short order and maybe print money.

The overall context is an opening spike (gap leg #1.), A PB (bars 8:30 - bars 9:00) then a continuation of the bullish spike. At this point it is for all practical purpose ....a channel. Leg 2 is made in that channel. Remember the market cycle. Trend ( BO...spike...etc), first PB then resumption (leg#2) becomes a channel. Channels usually start to flatten out and price goes into a TR or a several bar pause for profit taking. bars 9:05 thru bars 9:50. If keeps going sideway after that then it is likely going into a TR. Once price after those PB bars 30, 35, and 40 continue sideways for 20 bars counting from left (see my box) then we are no longer in a PB but a TR and that is when I use TR techniques. Sometimes I will fudge a little that and start before 20 bars if I think it is just going to keep going sideways.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

I think this is really the key. Once a trader gets half decent at taking the correct trade and at the right time, its knowing what to do if its not working that makes you profitable in the long run or not. Doubling up and reversing is a solid strategy, but once again, you have to know where to do it. My reversals often don't turn out well, but its mostly because the original entry wasn't ideal, and then the move against my position isn't yet a reason to consider a reversal. But you do a very good job of showing how it should be done!

Hello NoahA,

Knowing what to do when the trade fails or a loss(s) occur will always and forever be the challenge of a trader. Who cares are about winning. Its all about losing, not winning.

In order to not drown in a sea of uncertainty, it is best to focus on losses, not the winners.

X losses in a row is like taxes, it is coming for everyone.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

but then I could end up with bigger cum loss at the end of the day?

Hello ironchef,

Is there a problem with having a bigger cumulative loss at the end of the day for you?

 

[schizo]

VST has all kinds of Strategy Performance Reposts that any TradeStation user can generate. For someone who is doing what he claims he is doing, why bother with trolling for chat room users?

I dunno who VST is, never met him in person. But from brief encounters I've had with him here, he's always been helpful and never shy of providing his insights. Never once received solicitation of any kind. So your claim that he's just "trolling for chat room user" seems unfounded.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

I dunno who VST is, never met him in person. But from brief encounters I've had with him here, he's always been helpful and never shy of providing his insights. Never once received solicitation of any kind. So your claim that he's just "trolling for chat room user" seems unfounded.

Hello schizo,

Me as well. My talks with @VSTscalper was very helpful. He never tried to sale me anything. I believe he just like to code algos majority of the time.

I like the discipline in how he trades, he has very strict rules for his trading.

 

[SunTrader]

.... So your claim that he's just "trolling for chat room user" seems unfounded.

For you, not for me.

He responded to me and a few others looking for us to join him in chatroom - no "sales pitch" etc.

I've also seen the same over on ... whatever it is called now? ... but used to be TradersLab. As well as on TradeStation Forum.

He plainly knows how to code. But code alone doesn't get it done.

 

[NoahA]

In order to not drown in a sea of uncertainty, it is best to focus on losses, not the winners.

My god you are so full of shit. First you make it sound like to make money all we have to do is just visualize how much we want to extract from the ES, and now you're saying the key is to focus on the losses. Please show us just one chart with your entries marked by the platform like Volpri shows. Everything you type is bullshit. But since you say you're so good at clicking on the buy and sell button, let's see a chart of those trades.

 

[SunTrader]

Here is how I scalp those so-called random moves and noise and make the cash register jingle.

Any reason why your chart image is not showing any bars between 310am and 830am?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

First you make it sound like to make money all we have to do is just visualize how much we want to extract from the ES, and now you're saying the key is to focus on the losses.

Hello NoahA,

Well NoahA how will you make money if you do not 1) visualize how much we want to extract from the ES and 2) focus on the losses ?

It will be hard to win if you do not 1) Determine how much money you want from the ES per day/week/month/year and 2) focus on the losses so that you can win day/week/month/year.

What is me showing you my trades on a chart going to do for your wallet and money in your pocket? I can not click the buy or sell button for you. And most importantly, why on EARTH would I EVER in a million times another million years show you my trades for. LOL, that kinda of defeats of the purpose of me figuring out how to make money right? Then next you will ask you for my bank account nunmber.

 

[NoahA]

Hello NoahA,

Well NoahA how will you make money if you do not 1) visualize how much we want to extract from the ES and 2) focus on the losses ?

It will be hard to win if you do not 1) Determine how much money you want from the ES per day/week/month/year and 2) focus on the losses so that you can win day/week/month/year.

What is me showing you my trades on a chart going to do for your wallet and money in your pocket?

I agree that you need to focus on the losses to the extent that all the best traders say to keep losses small and let the winner runs. But your whole thesis on visualizing how much you want to extract is like telling a fat 40 year old woman to visualize her ideal boyfriend and then prince charming will just magically come along.

Determining how much money you want is the dumbest way to do this and shows how full of shit you really are. There is no way for the market to give you what you want. All that you can do is capture a certain amount of what the market gives.

Of course you will never show anything because you are still struggling. Maybe you're trying extra hard to "fake it till you make it" because you have run out of ideas. And I get it, most here are not making money, but your "visualization" strategy is just as bad as the scammers.