Is Peak Oil a Fallacy?

[achilles28]

Quote from Misthos:

If the abiotic theory was both true and commercially viable, you think countries would still be going to war over the stuff?

Absolutely.

Countries have to rationalize the war-agenda, or the citizens never put up with it.

This is how American hegemony is spread - under the false flag of "energy security". Or "fighting terror".

Americans are okay with 100K Iraqis dying. "We need the Oil", after all....

Rome conquered Europe under banner of "Peace".

Government always, always always, need a good excuse to engage in their favorite past-time - War.

 

[Misthos]

Quote from achilles28:

The real question is who provides those "Facts"?

And do those parties have a vested interest in the idea of scarce oil? Or plentiful oil?

Since we're discussing facts, hydrocarbons have been found on other planets - just inside our solar system. That proves oil is abiotic. There are gigantic methane *lakes* on Titan.

How can gigantic lakes the size of the Caspian Sea be filled with Hydrocarbons on a planet devoid of life?

Clearly, the creation of hydrocarbons is not the exclusive domain of rotting organic matter (has that ever been demonstrated, btw?).

Further, HUGE AMOUNTS of hydrocarbons are created through natural geological processes (abiotic).

For some perspective. Global oil consumption is 85 million barrels per day, right?

1 Cubic Kilometer of Oil contains 6.2 Billion barrals. Or enough oil to last the world ~2 months.

Just one of Titans methane lakes is the size of the Caspian Sea.

That lake holds 78,000 square kilometers of methane.

That's ~180,000 YEARS worth of energy, right there ! In just ONE of Titans methane lakes, on a planet 14 TIMES smaller than Earth !

Peak Oil is a big fraud, IMO.

You still didn't address any of my prior questions.

Why do wells deplete?

Why did domestic US oil production (lower 48) peak in 1970? I thought the stuff magically replenishes itself?

As for other planets - who cares? It's not commercially viable anyway. You going to fly across the universe to fill up your gas tank?

 

[Misthos]

Quote from achilles28:

Absolutely.

Countries have to rationalize the war-agenda, or the citizens never put up with it.

This is how American hegemony is spread - under the false flag of "energy security". Or "fighting terror".

Americans are okay with 100K Iraqis dying. "We need the Oil", after all....

Rome conquered Europe under banner of "Peace".

Government always, always always, need a good excuse to engage in their favorite past-time - War.

So we drop bombs for the hell of it? Then why aren't we dropping bombs elsewhere? Why is it that we're always dropping bombs near energy resources? Why are we stationed near energy rich areas?

C'mon... you make no sense.

 

[Fat Tails]

Quote from Misthos:

Looks like you read up on this topic. What is your opinion of shale gas - like the Barnett Shale gas play? Overblown or a panacea or somewhere in the middle?

French company Total just published that they will be entering into a joint venture with Chesapeake to produce shale gas, and will be investing an additional USD 1.45 billion during the next six years. Do you think they are kidding?

Some key figures about shale gas:

- World wide reservers are estimated about 450.000 billion m3, this is roughly twice the amount of conventional natural gas reserves.

- In the US shale gas accounts for about 6% of annual production, this might increase to up to 25%. The first US company that sold natural gas was Fredonia Light, and what they sold was shale gas, which they had already discovered in 1821!

- Extraction of shale gas is more difficult than extraction of conventional gas, technology includes horizontal drilling and fracturing, so as with non-conventional oil, production will only be profitable if market price exceeds a minimum, which would always be well above the marginal cost of production.

 

[Misthos]

Quote from Fat Tails:

French company Total just published that they will be entering into a joint venture with Chesapeake to produce shale gas, and will be investing an additional USD 1.45 billion during the next six years. Do you think they are kidding?

Some key figures about shale gas:

- World wide reservers are estimated about 450.000 billion m3, this is roughly twice the amount of conventional natural gas reserves.

- In the US shale gas accounts for about 6% of annual production, this might increase to up to 25%. The first US company that sold natural gas was Fredonia Light, and what they sold was shale gas, which they had already discovered in 1821!

- Extraction of shale gas is more difficult than extraction of conventional gas, technology includes horizontal drilling and fracturing, so as with non-conventional oil, production will only be profitable if market price exceeds a minimum, which would always be well above the marginal cost of production.

Hydrofracing is very water intensive. After I read up on it I found this company: ESPH.OB interesting stuff they do with the water and they signed up w/ Simmons Co. recently. Bought in at .36 at .50 now.

Check it out. Not comfortable with the amount of shares outstanding and some other issues. But the technology looks pretty impressive.

 

[Fat Tails]

Quote from achilles28:

Further, HUGE AMOUNTS of hydrocarbons are created through natural geological processes (abiotic).

Could you please comment on how these processes works? Could you further describe where the carbon and the hydrogen needed to constitute the hydrocarbons comes from?

The existence of methane on other planets does not tell us much. Carbon and hydrogen are basic elements that can be found anywhere in the universe. Methane is the simplest stable molecule you can build with carbon and hydrogen, so this does not tell us anything.

Don't tell us any tales.....

 

[achilles28]

Quote from Misthos:

You still didn't address any of my prior questions.

Why do wells deplete?

Why did domestic US oil production (lower 48) peak in 1970? I thought the stuff magically replenishes itself?

As for other planets - who cares? It's not commercially viable anyway. You going to fly across the universe to fill up your gas tank?

That's a pretty cavalier dismissal for such an earth shattering discovery (hydrocarbons on other planets).

Have you ever thought to consider that since natural geological processes creates hydrocarbons, maybe it happens here, on earth?

Russian scientists created oil in the lab from pressure, heat, carbon and some naturally occuring elements in the crust.

Have scientists ever created oil from rotted organic matter? You never answered that question. And a few others, now that we're counting.

As far as wells depleting. It's possible the abiotic creation of oil is localized to some areas, and not others. The by-product of that reaction (oil), follows the path of least resistance until it finds a resting place (wells). Once we discover a well, we take it out, faster than its replenished.

For all humans know, existing wells are replenished, and new ones created, all the time.

How much of the earths surface (%) has been explored for oil, anyway? And how much of the seabed has been explored for oil? You might want an answer to those questions before freaking out about an energy crash.

 

[Misthos]

Quote from achilles28:

That's a pretty cavalier dismissal for such an earth shattering discovery (hydrocarbons on other planets).

Have you ever thought to consider that since natural geological processes creates hydrocarbons, maybe it happens here, on earth?

Russian scientists created oil in the lab from pressure, heat, carbon and some naturally occuring elements in the crust.

Have scientists ever created oil from rotted organic matter? You never answered that question. And a few others, now that we're counting.

As far as wells depleting. It's possible the abiotic creation of oil is localized to some areas, and not others. The by-product of that reaction (oil), follows the path of least resistance until it finds a resting place (wells). Once we discover a well, we take it out, faster than its replenished.

For all humans know, existing wells are replenished, and new ones created, all the time.

How much of the earths surface (%) has been explored for oil, anyway? And how much of the seabed has been explored for oil? You might want an answer to those questions before freaking out about an energy crash.

You're in a fantasyland. "For all we know" type of conjecture does not put food on the table.

But you know what? I won't argue if oil is biotic or abiotic or if it's possible for it to be both. The bottom line is that oil depletes, and likely faster than it can be created. That sounds like peak production of a resource to me.

And I'm not freaking out about an energy crash... the Pentagon is, and rightly so. That's why we have built a billion dollar embassy in Iraq that's bigger than the Vatican. And now that embassy wants to double in personnel.

Could you please contact the Department of Energy, the Pentagon, and the Office of the president of the United States and tell them - no need to worry! Oil is abiotic and replenishes! It's abundant!!! Just keep drilling!!!

(By the way, the lower 48 is the most drilled area in the world - and it still peaked)

Your message would save the country billions. We could use that money for the upcoming pension/social security/medicare collapse.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from achilles28:

The real question is who provides those "Facts"?

And do those parties have a vested interest in the idea of scarce oil? Or plentiful oil?

Since we're discussing facts, hydrocarbons have been found on other planets - just inside our solar system. That proves oil is abiotic. There are gigantic methane *lakes* on Titan.





How can gigantic lakes the size of the Caspian Sea be filled with Hydrocarbons on a planet devoid of life?

Clearly, the creation of hydrocarbons is not the exclusive domain of rotting organic matter (has that ever been demonstrated, btw?).

Further, HUGE AMOUNTS of hydrocarbons are created through natural geological processes (abiotic).

For some perspective. Global oil consumption is 85 million barrels per day, right?

1 Cubic Kilometer of Oil contains 6.2 Billion barrals. Or enough oil to last the world ~2 months.

Just one of Titans methane lakes is the size of the Caspian Sea.

That lake holds 78,000 square kilometers of methane.

That's ~180,000 YEARS worth of energy, right there ! In just ONE of Titans methane lakes, on a planet 14 TIMES smaller than Earth !

Peak Oil is a big fraud, IMO.

on these planets methane replaces water.. i think we do have 78,000 square kilometres of water

methane is NOT a liquid at room temperature, but a gas. you got seas of methane there because it's so cold.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from achilles28:

That's a pretty cavalier dismissal for such an earth shattering discovery (hydrocarbons on other planets).

Have you ever thought to consider that since natural geological processes creates hydrocarbons, maybe it happens here, on earth?

Russian scientists created oil in the lab from pressure, heat, carbon and some naturally occuring elements in the crust.

Have scientists ever created oil from rotted organic matter? You never answered that question. And a few others, now that we're counting.

As far as wells depleting. It's possible the abiotic creation of oil is localized to some areas, and not others. The by-product of that reaction (oil), follows the path of least resistance until it finds a resting place (wells). Once we discover a well, we take it out, faster than its replenished.

For all humans know, existing wells are replenished, and new ones created, all the time.

How much of the earths surface (%) has been explored for oil, anyway? And how much of the seabed has been explored for oil? You might want an answer to those questions before freaking out about an energy crash.

yes, we call is bio-ethanol
its made from plants.

LOL you want to believe in abiotic so much, it becomes idiotic