Is Peak Oil a Fallacy?

[Misthos]

Quote from JSSPMK:

What about the guy that kept telling the SEC about Madoff? Nobody wants to listen to individuals, although they are frequently spot on. Mass media is there to control the minds of sheeple, just like religion used to.

I didn't mean to be rude... but the reality is mass media, governments, and the oil companies are actucally against discussing the peak oil issue.

In my mind, it's easier to discuss cap and trade, global warming, and the war on terror- all of which, in my view, are in response to peak oil - the real underlying issue.

 

[TraderZones]

Quote from Fat Tails:



Natural gas is the likely winner in the next 30 years, but not a sustainable alternative in the long run. If you remember, train-oil did not lose market share because of the extinction of whales, but because a substitute was discovered that was cheaper and better suited the needs of consumers.

+1 --- this article, among many:
http://moneymorning.com/2008/08/28/natural-gas-production/

 

[unretired]

I really appreciate most of the posts on this thread and the level of thinking, education and variation of opinion.

Lets see if I get this right.

As societies develop, their technology, industry and transportation increases demand for energy resources.

Oil reserves are abundant and increasing but not enough to compensate for the decline in cheap oil extraction from the majority of the worlds functioning producers.

The increase in demand along with the reduction of supply along with the increase of supply costs for extraction of developed fields creates in front of the world society an immediate and imminent energy crisis called Peak Oil.

While I agree it is theoretically sound and is fact that this is real economics at its basest form I absolutely agree that the time line of danger is meticulously and carefully presented in closed logic form that does not advertise or broadcast that the slope of the peak and the dangers it represents can be offset some several hundreds of years.

There are very educated and qualified people in both camps that have their data to support it ... so ... whom should one believe?

The ones who benefit will tell the story most in their favor.
However those same groups also have the money and power and influence in this situation, hence establish the trend.

It appears the trend is "Green" ... as it forces an opposite developmental process of growth and swings the "candlestick of energy" pretty nicely.

Great efforts and deceptive tactics are fully supported amongst world leaders and those of the Bilderberger Ilk et-al, to direct the masses that way and the reasons for doing so could release enormous technological breakthroughs and bring out formerly suppressed technologies ... so I see the logic of the puppet-masters of money and power.

So ... is "Peak Oil" real ... sure.
So is "Peak French fries" in a restaurant that gets mobbed beyond capacity.

My Take on it like many other things ... isn't to fight over the simplicity of supply and demand and infrastructure or haggle over both sets of data that provide proof for both spectrum ends of the candlestick swing ... but to see who profits or is empowered from what people believe, think and choose ... and how that is being manipulated and why and at what level and volume the masses accept it ... thereby establishing a possible and predictable megatrend(s) and the time-frame in which it is likely to be in effect and how to strategize in accordance with that.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=187153


Markets are moved in this manner.
Trends are affected in this manner.
We watch that history in charts.

 

[pspr]

Another possible unknown is where oil actually comes from.

Russian scientists believe oil is created deep in the earth and underground pools are replentished as time goes buy. How else did some deposits get so deep under ground and under the oceans?

Although most U.S. scientists don't believe this theory, why are there massive hydrocarbon deposits on the moon Titan? I don't think there was massive vegitation there to be turned into oil!

Anyway, like global warming the science still doesn't quite make sense as told to the public.

 

[unretired]

Quote from pspr:

... Russian scientists believe oil is created deep in the earth and underground pools are replentished as time goes buy. ... Anyway, like global warming the science still doesn't quite make sense as told to the public.

Thanks for challenge the whole basis at the core.

I hadn't considered that.

 

[Fat Tails]

Quote from Misthos:

I didn't mean to be rude... but the reality is mass media, governments, and the oil companies are actucally against discussing the peak oil issue.

In my mind, it's easier to discuss cap and trade, global warming, and the war on terror- all of which, in my view, are in response to peak oil - the real underlying issue.

There is no reason that the oil companies should not discuss peak oil. The main problem of the oil companies is that they have to reconstitute their reserves, as they are being depleted by extraction. New finds, as in Brazil, are often controlled by government owned corporations. For existing fields, the Western oil companies are now competing with Chinese and Russian companies for partnership agreements. Chinese and Russian companies do not have compliance departments, so they can easily behave in a way Western oil companies did 20 years ago, when they sponsored dictatorships in return for access to cheap oil.

Peak oil means that the extraction of oil is no longer growing, although energy demand is soaring. Relative share of oil will therefore come down, some of it shifting to natural gas, the remainder going to renewables or nuclear energy.

Western oil companies will have an ever smaller share of crude extraction. To survive, they will have to use their cash flows to diversify away from oil, and that's what is going on now.

I agree that Americans did not participate in the discussion for years. Consequence is bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler. Also LNG infrastructure is lacking behind.

See for existing LNG terminals

http://www.ferc.gov/industries/lng/indus-act/terminals/lng-existing.pdf

and for approved projects of LNG terminals

http://www.ferc.gov/industries/lng/indus-act/terminals/lng-approved.pdf

For further discussion I may suggest an interesting book by the Rocky Mountain Institute, which was already published in 2005:
Winning The Oil Endgame by Amory B.Lovins and E. Kyle Datta

 

[Misthos]

Quote from pspr:

Another possible unknown is where oil actually comes from.

Russian scientists believe oil is created deep in the earth and underground pools are replentished as time goes buy. How else did some deposits get so deep under ground and under the oceans?

Although most U.S. scientists don't believe this theory, why are there massive hydrocarbon deposits on the moon Titan? I don't think there was massive vegitation there to be turned into oil!

Anyway, like global warming the science still doesn't quite make sense as told to the public.

If the abiotic theory was both true and commercially viable, you think countries would still be going to war over the stuff? Look at the middle east, Venezuela, Rwanda... wars are waged, governments overthrown, all because the stuff is scarce.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from Misthos:

People that don't believe in peak oil don't understand what peak oil is.

Let's assume oil is of abiotic origin, wells deplete nonetheless.... that's a fact.

Is it a stretch of logic to assume that if one well depletes, then all wells deplete?

Is the planet finite?

Did the US lower 48 (the most drilled region in the world) peak in oil production in 1970? Yes... that too, is a fact.

If you can dispute the above FACTS, then you can say that peak oil is a theory.... otherwise, Peak Oil is a FACT. The only difference of opinion is when oil production peaks, not if it is at all possible for it to peak.

The real question is who provides those "Facts"?

And do those parties have a vested interest in the idea of scarce oil? Or plentiful oil?

Since we're discussing facts, hydrocarbons have been found on other planets - just inside our solar system. That proves oil is abiotic. There are gigantic methane *lakes* on Titan.

Quote from :
"It's official: The northern hemisphere of Saturn's giant moon Titan is dotted with liquid hydrocarbon lakes. The finding vindicates a long-standing prediction that Titan, shrouded in dense nitrogen and methane clouds, should also have reservoirs of liquid—likely methane—on its surface."
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/news/85/i02/8502notw3.html

How can gigantic lakes the size of the Caspian Sea be filled with Hydrocarbons on a planet devoid of life?

Clearly, the creation of hydrocarbons is not the exclusive domain of rotting organic matter (has that ever been demonstrated, btw?).

Further, HUGE AMOUNTS of hydrocarbons are created through natural geological processes (abiotic).

For some perspective. Global oil consumption is 85 million barrels per day, right?

1 Cubic Kilometer of Oil contains 6.2 Billion barrals. Or enough oil to last the world ~2 months.

Just one of Titans methane lakes is the size of the Caspian Sea.

That lake holds 78,000 square kilometers of methane.

That's ~180,000 YEARS worth of energy, right there ! In just ONE of Titans methane lakes, on a planet 14 TIMES smaller than Earth !

Peak Oil is a big fraud, IMO.

 

[Misthos]

Quote from Fat Tails:

There is no reason that the oil companies should not discuss peak oil. The main problem of the oil companies is that they have to reconstitute their reserves, as they are being depleted by extraction. New finds, as in Brazil, are often controlled by government owned corporations. For existing fields, the Western oil companies are now competing with Chinese and Russian companies for partnership agreements. Chinese and Russian companies do not have compliance departments, so they can easily behave in a way Western oil companies did 20 years ago, when they sponsored dictatorships in return for access to cheap oil.

Peak oil means that the extraction of oil is no longer growing, although energy demand is soaring. Relative share of oil will therefore come down, some of it shifting to natural gas, the remainder going to renewables or nuclear energy.

Western oil companies will have an ever smaller share of crude extraction. To survive, they will have to use their cash flows to diversify away from oil, and that's what is going on now.

I agree that Americans did not participate in the discussion for years. Consequence is bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler. Also LNG infrastructure is lacking behind.

See for existing LNG terminals

http://www.ferc.gov/industries/lng/indus-act/terminals/lng-existing.pdf

and for approved projects of LNG terminals

http://www.ferc.gov/industries/lng/indus-act/terminals/lng-approved.pdf

For further discussion I may suggest an interesting book by the Rocky Mountain Institute, which was already published in 2005:
Winning The Oil Endgame by Amory B.Lovins and E. Kyle Datta

Looks like you read up on this topic. What is your opinion of shale gas - like the Barnett Shale gas play? Overblown or a panacea or somewhere in the middle?

 

[Fat Tails]

Quote from pspr:

Another possible unknown is where oil actually comes from.

Russian scientists believe oil is created deep in the earth and underground pools are replentished as time goes buy. How else did some deposits get so deep under ground and under the oceans?

Sorry for being frank. This is rubbish. Oil is not created deep in the earth and no scientist would believe this. Where should the carbonhydroxide come from?

Oil is nothing else than organic deposits originally built up by large rivers. Let us come back to the idea that there are deep water oil reserves between Southern America and Africa. Well, this is quite possible, because after the continent Gondwana broke up, separating South America from Africa and cutting the "Original Amazon River" with its spring somewhere near current Tchad into two halves, the two resulting rivers - called Amazon River and Zaire River today - were transporting organic waste from the tropical forests and depositing this within the sea.