Is Peak Oil a Fallacy?

Is Peak Oil a fallacy?

  • Yes. Plain and simple

    Votes: 18 25.0%

  • No.

    Votes: 35 48.6%

  • Yes for many middle-eastern deposits but not the whole world.

    Votes: 1 1.4%

  • Get real, it’s all about manipulating the market and making more money.

    Votes: 1 1.4%

  • Just Big Lazy Money; effing the little guy. There are 500+ years of untapped Peak Oil resources let

    Votes: 2 2.8%

  • All ... or 3+ out of 5 above.

    Votes: 4 5.6%

  • There is not enough information to say.

    Votes: 5 6.9%

  • Hell-if-I-know

    Votes: 6 8.3%
  • Total voters
    72
As I understand it, with all current reserves on the books prior to the two massive oil fields recently discovered and not counting massive untapped deposits in several places in the world and America ... especially Alaska ...

Peak oil is real as it demonstrates greater costs to extract remaining oil which will continue production declines.

My concern is that there are many massive untapped reserves that are bursting at the seems that are not being capitalized on as of yet and there are two massive reserves recently discovered and additional undiscovered reserves that make past calculations on known production only estimates.

The new data is available but their isn't a new model with new estimates just more mention and pressure to adhere to the old model and data.

Using an outdated model with outdated and incomplete and absent data fields just doesn't work for me.
 
Energy Companies have a vested interest in keeping the idea of Peak Oil, alive and well.

The belief in Peak Oil keeps a solid bid under the price of Oil.

All the data used to ascertain how much oil is left, relative to new discoveries, is made available by Oil Companies.

It's very possible that Oil Companies have distorted, hid or lied about the reported data in order to make Peak Oil seem very real.

Climategate is a perfect example.

Interestingly, Oil has geological (aboitic origins) - heat, pressure and elements in the earths crust creates oil.

As an extension, out of just the tiny sample of planetoids man has explored, astoundingly, a few are reported to hold vast sea's of hydrocarbons (methane) !!

No dinosaurs there.
 
Peak oil is certainly real. Peak oil is the year of maximum extraction of crude oil, and we are close to it. Think of it as a maximum flow as opposed to inventory.

This does not mean that the reserves are depleted. There is lots of unconventional oil that still can be tapped. This includes deep water reserves and oil sands. However cost of extraction of unconventional reserves is considerably higher than for conventional reserves, so do not expect crude prices to retrace to their levels ten years ago. Also the environmental cost of extracting crude from oil sands is extremely high, both in terms of destruction of ecosystems as in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. The energy balance is quite bad, as you need to reinvest part of the energy extracted to perform the extraction. Reminds me all this biofuels business (grow crops by using diesel oil, transform this to FAME by using methanol, get your subsidies and sell it, do not ask any questions about the ratio of energy returned to energy used).

The next years will belong to natural gas. All major oil companies are investing in that field, see takeover of XTO by Exxon or Duvernay by Shell, also see joint venture BP/Chesapeake. Natural gas will precede the transition to non-fossil fuels, which will be necessary to prevent a climatic collapse.

There is lots of first class publications available on these subjects, so I do not think we need to vote on it. The vote will not affect peak oil and tell more about the voters than about the súbject.....
 
Quote from Fat Tails:

There is lots of first class publications available on these subjects, so I do not think we need to vote on it. The vote will not affect peak oil and tell more about the voters than about the súbject.....
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The intention here is stimulation, dialog and testing the water of this board and trench of the marketplace.

Comments that are well thought out on all sides are welcome as that stretches the educated to broaden their viewpoint.

Solid reply. Thanks ! :cool:
 
People that don't believe in peak oil don't understand what peak oil is.

Let's assume oil is of abiotic origin, wells deplete nonetheless.... that's a fact.

Is it a stretch of logic to assume that if one well depletes, then all wells deplete?

Is the planet finite?

Did the US lower 48 (the most drilled region in the world) peak in oil production in 1970? Yes... that too, is a fact.

If you can dispute the above FACTS, then you can say that peak oil is a theory.... otherwise, Peak Oil is a FACT. The only difference of opinion is when oil production peaks, not if it is at all possible for it to peak.
 
Saltpeter is the oxidizing agent in gunpowder, a major component for war tools like guns and bombs. (Stay with me, I do have a point.)

For a thousand years or so, people made saltpeter out of wood ashes and various combinations of poo and pee, bat guano being the best. Basically, if you wanted to wage war, you have to have bat shit.

Germany, itching to start a little conflict we now call WWI, found itself in a jam because the Brits owned all the bat shit. Along comes a smart German scientist named Haber who invents a method to create synthetic saltpeter. Suddenly an unlimited supply of domestically produced gunpowder, yadda yadda yadda, millions of lives lost and some British investors found their oversees bat cave investments worthless.

The point is that we have a lot in common with early 20th century Germany:
1) a much-needed natural resource
2) that resource is owned by a foreign gov't hostile to our interests
3) some damn smart domestic scientists
4) a whole pile of money and a national can-do attitude

Ladies and gentlemen, oil isn't going to disappear one day like turning off a light switch. It will gradually get more expensive, which will spur investment into alternative energy sources.

We have already seen an economic shift of gigantic magnitude. GM is out of business because nobody buys domestic SUV's anymore, they all buy foreign hybrids.

I don't know what the answer will be. Maybe we will be shoving ears of corn into our gas tanks, maybe cow farts, maybe solar or wind or Mr. Fusion. Who knows.

Relax, and let our wonderful free market take care of this problem. We only need to be careful not to stifle this innovation.
 
Quote from Misthos:

If you can dispute the above FACTS, then you can say that peak oil is a theory.... otherwise, Peak Oil is a FACT. The only difference of opinion is when oil production peaks, not if it is at all possible for it to peak.
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Indeed. However the sizable untapped known oil fields (from what I understand) and certainly the massive new discoveries of the last 12 months and absolutely the undiscovered reserves are not in their calculations.
 
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:

Relax, and let our wonderful free market take care of this problem. We only need to be careful not to stifle this innovation.
More...

That's naive.

Does a wonderful free market dictate that we need a military presence in the middle east? Imagine if there was a nuclear war in the middle east because our military was not based there to snuff it out and all hell broke loose.

How would our wonderful free market react?

Government planning is just as important as a free market. Don't be naive.
 
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