You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Is Peak Oil a Fallacy?
- Thread starter unretired
- Start date
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
Relax, and let our wonderful free market take care of this problem. We only need to be careful not to stifle this innovation. [/B]
Markets have limited powers. The visible hand is nothing more than a negative feedback mechanism that is supposed to lead to a wonderful and stable equilibrium. Problem here is that the first one to discover it, think it was Walras, just borrowed some differential equations from physics. This was before the second law of thermodynamics and the concept of entropy was fully understood. I am grateful that markets also show positive feedback, otherwise there would be no incentive to trade.
What about playing around with this (it's all renewable and includes pollution), try whether you can achieve equilibrium!
http://sugarscape.sourceforge.net/
Problem of the market is also that it does not account for pollution or destruction common goods such as ground water, oceans, air, climate, genetic diversity. These are not being paid for and thus not being accounted for by the negative feedback mechanism. The US so far has been the biggest thief of all, justifiying its unlimited appetite with the so called free market. I believe that free market fundamentalists are as dangerous as creationists or muslim radicals for all of us. If markets provide for the feedback mechanism, somebody first has to set up the rules and somebody needs to supervise the game as well. Today the economic agents set up their businesses where the supervisors suit them.
Peak oil is a secondary problem. Although we are quickly depleting the energy stored during a couple of millions years, there is enough stuff left in the ground to burn. When everything is burned, there will be enough radiation from the sun to supply us with energy, but will be still be able to swim or to breathe?
Quote from Fat Tails:
Peak oil is certainly real. Peak oil is the year of maximum extraction of crude oil, and we are close to it.
.....
Wasn't there an article on Yahoo that said a newly discovered reserve under the Ocean stretched from Africa to the Americas?
I didn't read the article, just saw the headline.
All I can say is this & from the horse's mouth - "there is no peak oil, it's all fun & games, there is enough found reserves for another 100-150 years" (can't recall exact number), I was told that prior to the recession, therefore at maximum demand. I would rather trust a man that has been working oil rigs for many years in different countries, than the peak oil website. Arabs still haven't revealed exact figures on their reserves, common sense suggests that is because they want to keep control on prices, if they announce officially actual figures, oil may be trading at $40 or whatever. At $80 they are pretty happy.
Peak oil is very real. But I think people consistently and vastly underestimate the engineering tools that are at our disposal to deal with the problem.
If we needed to, within 3-5 years, America could cut its oil (diesel/gas) consumption in half, with proper leadership and a strong technical mandate.
Would it involve driving more reasonable sized cars instead of SUVs? Yes. Would it involve banning half ton pickups unless a true and legitimate need could be demonstrated? Yes. Would it involve requiring the aggressive use of telecommutting, videoconferencing, and the use of more appropriate aircraft on heavily travelled routes? You bet. Would it involve the heavy use of diesel engines in cars? That's a no-brainer.
The sooner engineers are allowed to, and empowered to make the economy more efficient, the sooner we get out of this mess and onto a more sustainable path.
If we needed to, within 3-5 years, America could cut its oil (diesel/gas) consumption in half, with proper leadership and a strong technical mandate.
Would it involve driving more reasonable sized cars instead of SUVs? Yes. Would it involve banning half ton pickups unless a true and legitimate need could be demonstrated? Yes. Would it involve requiring the aggressive use of telecommutting, videoconferencing, and the use of more appropriate aircraft on heavily travelled routes? You bet. Would it involve the heavy use of diesel engines in cars? That's a no-brainer.
The sooner engineers are allowed to, and empowered to make the economy more efficient, the sooner we get out of this mess and onto a more sustainable path.
Quote from JSSPMK:
All I can say is this & from the horse's mouth - "there is no peak oil, it's all fun & games, there is enough found reserves for another 100-150 years" (can't recall exact number), I was told that prior to the recession, therefore at maximum demand. I would rather trust a man that has been working oil rigs for many years in different countries, than the peak oil website. Arabs still haven't revealed exact figures on their reserves, common sense suggests that is because they want to keep control on prices, if they announce officially actual figures, oil may be trading at $40 or whatever. At $80 they are pretty happy.
This has to be one of the most worthless posts I have ever seen. It is typical of a lazy mind that can't or won't research, relies on a conversation with someone he once had, and views that someone as an authority.
Is this how you trade as well? Some dude tells you something and you plunk down some money on it?
Quote from Misthos:
This has to be one of the most worthless posts I have ever seen. It is typical of a lazy mind that can't or won't research, relies on a conversation with someone he once had, and views that someone as an authority.
Is this how you trade as well? Some dude tells you something and you plunk down some money on it?
What about the guy that kept telling the SEC about Madoff? Nobody wants to listen to individuals, although they are frequently spot on. Mass media is there to control the minds of sheeple, just like religion used to.
peak oil isnt about oil running out.
it is about oil costing more and more to extract.
the cost is not measured in money, but in energy.
oil wil never run out
but if it cost 2 barrels energy to extract 1 barrel energy is it worth it.
it is about oil costing more and more to extract.
the cost is not measured in money, but in energy.
oil wil never run out
but if it cost 2 barrels energy to extract 1 barrel energy is it worth it.
The difficulty in understanding of the concept of Peak Oil stems from people's misunderstanding of exponential growth.
This guy does an excellent job explaining the idea (you don't need to watch the whole thing, but I recommend watching up to the bit about the bacteria in the jar):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
In essence, the problem stems not from a lack of oil, but the continuously growing demand for oil. As the guy in the video points out there could be many times the amount of oil used in all of history in the ground, but with ever growing demand it would still be insufficient.
This guy does an excellent job explaining the idea (you don't need to watch the whole thing, but I recommend watching up to the bit about the bacteria in the jar):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
In essence, the problem stems not from a lack of oil, but the continuously growing demand for oil. As the guy in the video points out there could be many times the amount of oil used in all of history in the ground, but with ever growing demand it would still be insufficient.
Quote from TimeCorrosion:
Wasn't there an article on Yahoo that said a newly discovered reserve under the Ocean stretched from Africa to the Americas?
I didn't read the article, just saw the headline.
Peak oil has nothing to do with size of reserves, peak oil is the year with the maximum extraction rate, so do not confuse flow and inventory. There may be huge non-conventional reserves, but as extraction cost and environmental damage are far too high, extraction of non-conventional oil will be limited.
Natural gas is the likely winner in the next 30 years, but not a sustainable alternative in the long run. If you remember, train-oil did not lose market share because of the extinction of whales, but because a substitute was discovered that was cheaper and better suited the needs of consumers.