is market random?

is market random

  • yes

    Votes: 9 16.1%

  • no

    Votes: 17 30.4%

  • not all the time

    Votes: 19 33.9%

  • does not matter

    Votes: 11 19.6%
  • Total voters
    56
What are you talking about. If you want to critique my content then do it but you constantly resort to personal attacks. What exactly do you disagree with? Serious question. Of course you won't, personal attacks are much more convenient after all. Perhaps you can point us all to some stocks or indexes that reverted to some arbitrary long term mean. We would love to see it. Stop shooting the messenger, critique the message. Or do you have a hard on for me because we disagree on race in another thread? Quite a poor attitude of yours given that most of your other content is quite interesting and contributes value

tommcginnis said:
How many mathematical mistakes can be packed into one paragraph? WOW. I guess that your contention explains why there are so few mathematicians in finance. (And engineers, and physicists, and...) :rolleyes: They're all just mistaken, and wasting their lives. :confused: Poor schmucks.

But a sobering thought: the best single predictor of a price today, is the price yesterday. Randomize that!
More...
 
tommcginnis said:
But a sobering thought: the best single predictor of a price today, is the price yesterday. Randomize that!
More...
Professor Tom,

How do I determine from yesterday's price what today's price will be, up or down from yesterday?

Sincerely,

Your dumb student.
 
padutrader said:
yes
that was what i was trying to say.
you understood it because you are a trader not a scientist
More...
padutrader,

Yes, you are right. I am trader. I am not scientist, I am not a fantasy thinker, I am not a hope and wish, luck or random trader, or any of that pony and clown show.

Show me a chart, I don't care if monkey ass was trading back and forward on the chart. My job is to stare at the chart and make good decision to make money consistently without overwhelming and stressing myself over and over and over again.
 
I am currently short at the red arrow and stop loss at the green arrow.

Am I short here because the market is random?? or maybe i will get lucky, right.


No, I am short here because the my eyes tell me "get my black ass short because prior market all day is pointing down, and my black ass have high odds of making money if my black ass get short"

Done. Nice and simple and I do not care if market is random or whatever the latest pony and clown marketing going on.



upload_2019-9-30_12-55-21.png
 
Last edited:
ohhhh wow look, After I entered for some strange random reason the market went down. Maybe I got lucky, maybe the market is random, maybe Trump did it, nooo wait maybe Obama did it , no it was a monkey in the market did it. maybe it was you did it.

lol, throw this market random stuff away and get back to the charts everyone



upload_2019-9-30_13-27-14.png
 
Last edited:
tommcginnis said:
How many mathematical mistakes can be packed into one paragraph? WOW. I guess that your contention explains why there are so few mathematicians in finance. (And engineers, and physicists, and...) :rolleyes: They're all just mistaken, and wasting their lives. :confused: Poor schmucks.

But a sobering thought: the best single predictor of a price today, is the price yesterday. Randomize that!
More...
The point myself and others are making is that markets switch regimes, often violently, between random and nonrandom. Saying that autocorrelation is the best market model is wrong. However, that doesn't mean you can't money under the autocorrelation assumption, you just have to use it in the context of a trading system and then properly backtest.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top