and does it matter to a trader?
is market random?
- Thread starter padutrader
- Start date
Random does not imply a lack of predictability. There is an underlying distribution from which all values in the universe of movement are pulled from. The reason there are major pullbacks after huge movements is because the probability of that movement occuring was low, and the following movement will most likely be near the center of the distribution (where you would expect any value to be).
Probability is a difficult field to understand. Random processes don't necessarily imply un-forecastable processes. To think that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the mathematics of probability.
The people answering "does not matter" are true degenerates. Only a degenerate gambler would bet without knowing where the odds lie.
Probability is a difficult field to understand. Random processes don't necessarily imply un-forecastable processes. To think that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the mathematics of probability.
The people answering "does not matter" are true degenerates. Only a degenerate gambler would bet without knowing where the odds lie.
I'm one of the ones who answered that it does not matter.
Because it doesn't matter what we preconceive the market to be. It can be perceived to be random, or not. But what does it MATTER? So long as we recognize the PATTERNS in the randomness, the order in the chaos? That is where we succeed.
That is not the thinking of a degenerate gambler, I would hope. If it is, then I am a hopeless and degenerate gambler who will fail miserably because I did not realize that the market is won only by luck.
And if luck is the only thing that will help traders, then I am truly dead, because I have no luck at all. My fucking journal proves that.
No, and here is my proof. Take a security. Any security. Equity, future, etc. Remove all of the market participants. Every one. With all of the market participants removed, if the price of the security moves, then the market in that security is random. If it does not, then the market is not random.
You lost a few seriousness points on my serio-meter here, gauss. That's a fucked up thing to say.
Am I not supposed to be critical of someone who puts ES margin down, closes their eyes, and hits throws a dart at a dart board?
It certainly matters if the market is random or not.
Look up Brownian Motion.
If you're not into the math create a diagram by starting with one node. Flip a coin. If heads, its an up day, if tails it's a down day.
Your average will have a certain amount of trend to it. This is why quantitative finance is based on the log return series and not prices.
You are comparing trading to how monatomic particle flows behave? Yikes!