Is China actually bankrupt?

[asiaprop]

oh yeah, we forgot the Telegraph reporter was right there at the spot, an eyewitness so to speak. He told the story first hand. LOL.

Isnt it funny how you do not believe a single thing that comes out of Chinese state media (I dont believe all myself but...) but you suck up every bit of sensational news that comes out in the tabloids like a junky.

Quote from Debaser82:

A 70-year-old Chinese grandmother in the central province of Hubei was beaten and buried alive by property developers eager to get their hands on her land.

Wang Cuyun was attempting to prevent a demolition team from knocking down her house when she was allegedly beaten by a worker with a wooden stick and then pushed into a ditch that had been dug around the property.

A bulldozer then covered Mrs Wang with earth, burying her alive. By the time her relatives dug her up, she was dead. The incident occurred last Wednesday in Maodian village in Huangpi district.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...anny-buried-alive-by-property-developers.html

Old shool.

 

[asiaprop]

how true. But hey, you will be attacked because the 9% growth, they charge, is all made up by the government. LOL!!!

I wished all the billions printed by the Fed was ALSO just a bad dream.

Quote from MohdSalleh:

All this talk tough talk rings hollow. Only 18% of China's exports are to the US. It was the first nation to recover from the global crisis, and continues to post over 9% annual GDP growth. This is the same country that The Economist magazine said has led the world in GDP and technology for 19 of the past 21 centuries. To trash it as merely a backwards country that peddles trash, goes against all of history.

 

[asiaprop]

LOL, then why is everybody in the US concerned about the trade deficit it runs vs China? If all the value is added by Americans in America then there should be no worry correct?

Quote from adadadog:

Most exports from China to U.S. are made by U.S. companies located in China
or designed by companies in U.S..

 

[asiaprop]

maybe you want to review how much of trade is left to be done between China and the US, the percentages are dropping rapidly and already the US is not Chinas biggest trading partner anymore, its Europe and Asia. Get a grip buddy!!! Whatever the US decides it wants to do it will not kick China off the map, especially not in its ambitions to become the biggest industrial power soon.

Quote from Random.Capital:

No, it does not, it leaches off of a ridiculous American trade policy that will soon come to an end. And with it, most likely, will come an end to the Chinese "miracle".

Put bluntly, China has not shown an ability to compete against anybody.

 

[newguy05]

Quote from achilles28:

It's a Capitalist Dictatorship.

+1 Accurate.

Everyone is an expert on china nowdays, just the fact there are dozen "china going down" threads every week solidifies its position - noone gave a shit about china just 10 years back.

China will continue to grow and remain one of the strongest/safest economies in the coming decades. But for individual investors right now, it is becoming more difficult to place money, the real estate market will be(already) flatlined with skewed risk/reward as the govt has stated clearly its intentions to prevent further price increase especially targeting flippers/investors - never bet against the govt. All those articles about china real estate going up are of course way behind the curves as usual - by almost 3 months.

Stock market is zigzag without any clear upside, inflation fear -> interest rate is keeping the market at bay, not to mention the 60%+ drop during the worldwide meltdown is still fresh in many people's minds. It's the first such experience of stock market crash in china AFTER stock trading went mainstream. So it's still very fresh in the grandma and grandpa's minds, who are not eagle to get back in the game..

The only solace is the rmb itself is almost guaranteed to appreciate against the dollar, so by just holding rmb that in itself is a good play...which is what i am doing and also many people i know - holding tons of rmb cash (profits from the real estate booms).

There are a lot of investors in china in similar boat - holding tons cash but dont have an investment to put them into, while desperately looking. It's one of the reason luxury goods demand went through the roof - for example the new mercedes e class or even the buick lacross has a 3month backorder, and they cost almost 2x as expensive as in the US, and you will get laughed out the door if you try to buy it with a loan instead of a bag of cash.

I guess commodities is a better alternative than holding cash, but that market in china is too unregulated with almost unknown counterparty risk.

So to sum up, china -> still going strong, individual investor in china -> sucks right now.

 

[Anaconda]

Quote from achilles28:


Plus, there's 1 Trillion US in FDI that's gone into China. But I guess all those fools that opened factories in China made a "suckers bet" too, huh???

Actually, most of those factories run on razor thin margins or at a net loss, hence the bad debt which is constantly being burried by the government owned banks. The real profit margins are enjoyed by the global conglomerates, which provides these sweatshops with contracts.

You really should research the topic, if you're going to be a China cheerleader. Really, based on your belief, just move there and go make billions. Go open some sweatshops and see how it goes. Good luck,

 

[krazykarl]

The problem I have is that I don't care if GS and MS fucked the other parties over: the Chinese banks should have NOT entered into the contracts if they did not understand them. This is a case of the Chinese company running to mommy and daddy(the state) and getting their incompetence saved. Bullshit. They were on the wrong end of a bad deal that they didn't understand, too fucking bad; don't enter the deal in the first place.

China only makes decent money, from their perspective, from doing grunt work becuase their economy is still maturing. 100 years from now I fully expect the Chinese to look at making Nike shoes and TVs as we do: tedious.

The only reason I think China is closer to bankruptcy than the US is because their economic numbers are more manipulated than in the United States.

Quote from asiaprop:

1) What makes big bucks is to do the job that one has a comparative advantage in. That is the grunt work for China and it pays very well, a lot better than what the US is earning with its fading comparative advantage. You are right in saying that such advantages China currently possesses will also fade over time, textile production is an example that already shifted to countries such as Bangladesh. You can bitch about stealing trade secrets as long as you want, Google can chime in, and whoever as well. Fact remains China is such a promising market place and production location international companies still kiss China's feet just to be given a shot to enter and compete. There is really no point to start arguing about moral values, or is that how the US grew: By adhering to moral standards? Hardly not!

2) The banks you are talking about is Morgan Stanley and GS which had some of their contracts declared busted by a Chinese arbitration court. I do not agree how it has been done, and in my opinion that is China's biggest threat and challenge, to not as soon as possible implement a reliable contract and business law that is enforceable by all parties. But at the same time MS and GS fucked over municipalities and manufacturing entities with swaps that made no sense whatsoever except for themselves. The same happened in many local Italian towns and the same happened in the US. Its just that in the US a handshake is a handshake no matter whether you raped the kid before or not.

But lets stick to the topic as above points are very vague and we shift more and more to some anecdotal evidence. Why do you think China could be closer to bankruptcy than any other industrialized nation?

 

[asiaprop]

you are very ignorant, to say the least.

There were a number law courts in Europe who forced the cancellation of swap agreements because they were sold and marketed in questionable ways. So, I think you should first understand the full case before you jump to hasty conclusions.

Secondly, you may be a little behind our times but already each and every high tech product is already manufactured in China. Not only that, Chinese are learning blazing fast to design and produce those products themselves. This includes the top of the line switches, routers and high tech electronic equipment. Soon the first factories are producing products involving nano technology, something that has just been presented to the public a short while ago and is nowhere available in the US yet as well. Again before you judge you should do a little more thorough research!!!

Because numbers are manipulated is your only reason to conclude China is closer to bankruptcy than the US? Hmm, seems you did not attend a whole lot of statistics and probability classes where they were supposed to teach you critical and analytical reasoning. So, then may i ask you, by how much are they manipulated and what is your support for your math? Without it it is impossible for you to judge how close China is to bankruptcy.

Hilarious!!!!

Quote from krazykarl:

The problem I have is that I don't care if GS and MS fucked the other parties over: the Chinese banks should have NOT entered into the contracts if they did not understand them. This is a case of the Chinese company running to mommy and daddy(the state) and getting their incompetence saved. Bullshit. They were on the wrong end of a bad deal that they didn't understand, too fucking bad; don't enter the deal in the first place.

China only makes decent money, from their perspective, from doing grunt work becuase their economy is still maturing. 100 years from now I fully expect the Chinese to look at making Nike shoes and TVs as we do: tedious.

The only reason I think China is closer to bankruptcy than the US is because their economic numbers are more manipulated than in the United States.

 

[krazykarl]

Let's get a few things straight: the Chinese aren't designing shit. The majority of their "Engineering" of electronic components comes in the form of reverse-engineering products from Cisco, Intel and Apple so they can sell knock-offs. These "top of the line switches" you mention involves designs that are stolen from other manufactures, and what's worse is the Chinese don't see a problem with it!

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscent..._man_gets_30_months_for_fake_cisco_sales.html
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/12273
http://www.tuaw.com/2006/11/01/chinese-ipod-knockoffs/
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/desktop...rops-supplier-over-fake-intel-chips-40079605/


Robots can manufacture things - it's just cheaper right now to get labor in China to do it. If you think it has anything to do with quality or innovation you are delusional. As more of these corporate black-eyes start happening (IP theft, govt. interference, etc.) China will loose it's value proposition.

With regard to the busted contract, there is fraud out there in the derivative markets, but this case in China wasn't fraud,it was that a counter-party was on the losing end. There have been busted contacts in the US as well but not of this size. If you're going to put up this kind of money for a deal and enter into an agreement you should understand what you're getting into. Shame on them.

Quote from asiaprop:

you are very ignorant, to say the least.

There were a number law courts in Europe who forced the cancellation of swap agreements because they were sold and marketed in questionable ways. So, I think you should first understand the full case before you jump to hasty conclusions.

Secondly, you may be a little behind our times but already each and every high tech product is already manufactured in China. Not only that, Chinese are learning blazing fast to design and produce those products themselves. This includes the top of the line switches, routers and high tech electronic equipment. Soon the first factories are producing products involving nano technology, something that has just been presented to the public a short while ago and is nowhere available in the US yet as well. Again before you judge you should do a little more thorough research!!!

Because numbers are manipulated is your only reason to conclude China is closer to bankruptcy than the US? Hmm, seems you did not attend a whole lot of statistics and probability classes where they were supposed to teach you critical and analytical reasoning. So, then may i ask you, by how much are they manipulated and what is your support for your math? Without it it is impossible for you to judge how close China is to bankruptcy.

Hilarious!!!!

 

[asiaprop]

buddy, did you notice nobody here talks about where the design is coming from, this is all about manufacturing power. Why otherwise do you think China runs a trade surplus against the rest of the world. If you have a problem with that why wont you write a letter to your representative and ask him to bring the jobs back to your country ;-) This is a discussion about China's economic power not about a design study. If you have problems keeping those apart then maybe you should retreat from the discussion.

And the trade surplus can be attributed to the USD RMB peg only to a very small degree.

I think you should accept business is not a beauty contest. Do you think the national government is not aware of the environmental damage many of those factories pose? Of course they do but right now they try to raise economic living standards. Why is that extremely hard to understand for you?

Quote from krazykarl:

Let's get a few things straight: the Chinese aren't designing shit. The majority of their "Engineering" of electronic components comes in the form of reverse-engineering products from Cisco, Intel and Apple so they can sell knock-offs. These "top of the line switches" you mention involves designs that are stolen from other manufactures, and what's worse is the Chinese don't see a problem with it!

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscent..._man_gets_30_months_for_fake_cisco_sales.html
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/12273
http://www.tuaw.com/2006/11/01/chinese-ipod-knockoffs/
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/desktop...rops-supplier-over-fake-intel-chips-40079605/


Robots can manufacture things - it's just cheaper right now to get labor in China to do it. If you think it has anything to do with quality or innovation you are delusional. As more of these corporate black-eyes start happening (IP theft, govt. interference, etc.) China will loose it's value proposition.

With regard to the busted contract, there is fraud out there in the derivative markets, but this case in China wasn't fraud,it was that a counter-party was on the losing end. There have been busted contacts in the US as well but not of this size. If you're going to put up this kind of money for a deal and enter into an agreement you should understand what you're getting into. Shame on them.