I want to bet the farm

romik said:
When I see this I want to bet the farm, do you?
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I have to agree!
Last week I went to all cash (about Monday), I jumped ahead of my normal trading signal, that is, broke my usual 'support penetration' trading rule and exited out of market, locking in all my profits gained from past few months.
I trade long term daily signals, shortest hold period can be a day, longest hold period can be a year or so on some positions.

My reasoning...market way too stretched, it's a sellers market not a buyers market.
As well I was afraid of losing from slippage some of my wins which had grown considerably if I had waited for support to be broken.
I live in Australia and often see Australia lead the world on market signals, Australia was petering out.
 
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While this indicator consolidating may not occur everyday. I am sure its occurred before, why not search for it and check what was the success rate there?
 
I actually don't believe in long term indicators. A trend occurs due to a news event. This reflects in price and can be traded for intraday or say 2 days. It stops being relevant once the next event occurs. That being said, once a strong news even occurs and no counter events occur, you can have a trade that lasts months. However, it's a lot easier to wait for signs that you are right than pick tops or bottoms. When I don't make mistakes my win rate is 65%. The point being having patience to wait for a setup and not chase it.
 
This thread reflects the cost (opportunity cost) of not using optimal position sizing. It must be frustrating as hell to be stuck in the 2% rut, to see a great setup come along, and to not be able to properly size your trade to take maximum advantage and to know you're leaving serious money on the table. But for those who don't have the math tools and who aren't willing to do the work, here is where you're stuck. Good luck.
 
Just a quick reminder, this isn't about reason/s to take a position, even though I posted a chart, it's more to do with increasing position size in certain situations.
 
this is the way i see trading: most of the time you are just churning your account, make small bets here and there, risking maybe 10 to 50 basis points per trade, either breaking even or losing a little overall...but with always with an eye for the trade in which you can have very high conviction, where you almost know you are gonna be right, so you put a bigger position on, but with the finger on the exit button for a quick loss if it goes wrong.

At the end of the year, it's these trades that make ALL the money for you, all the other ones just wash out.
 
Visaria said:
about 2-3% (about 3 mins in) ....soros explains in this interview, enjoy!

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In every generation there is a tiny fraction of the human population born with incredibly powerful minds -- In my generation Soros is one of them. In these interviews he reveals his remarkable recall of history and deep intellectual powers.
 
Visaria said:
this is the way i see trading: most of the time you are just churning your account, make small bets here and there, risking maybe 10 to 50 basis points per trade, either breaking even or losing a little overall...but with always with an eye for the trade in which you can have very high conviction, where you almost know you are gonna be right, so you put a bigger position on, but with the finger on the exit button for a quick loss if it goes wrong.

At the end of the year, it's these trades that make ALL the money for you, all the other ones just wash out.
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Yah. That's what I have found
as well.
 
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