I Bailed

TrailerParkTed · Mar 5, 2021

TrailerParkTed said:
No mention of Elaine Garzarelli? I think the stocks I bought today were Cathy’s followers getting margin or liquidation calls. RH Forums their crying “Uncle” realizing stocks go down. Today reminded me of March or April 2000 when certain Tech stocks crumbled thirty to fifty percent only to have traders walk them back before the Close.

Dave Portnay posted earlier “You buy the dip”! His followers said “We have since late February and it’s not working”! Dave has $1 billion outside the Market so losing a few million is nothing to him.

themickey · Mar 5, 2021

TrailerParkTed said:
No mention of Elaine Garzarelli?.....

Wonder what she's thinking, whatever it is she'll be keeping it to herself.

themickey · Mar 6, 2021

Saturday spent hours looking at the landscape and the conclusion I arrived at....
The sea looks calm and the lights shine brightly but man the life boats.....

.....before you arrive at this situation.

So I've changed my mind, we've seen the top.

But please keep buying, I need to offload more positions.

niko79542 · Mar 8, 2021

Its funny cause the market moves like waves crashing on the beach. Especially due to its energy, I see the Nasdaq trading like a wave that has just broke (in February). What happens after the break? Just like the ocean, we don't know. But the energy gets dispersed (Read: call premiums dry up), and we get these smaller secondary and tertiary waves of energy crashing on the shore.

Here's an excerpt from wikipedia page on Breaking Waves.

These models are flawed, however, as they can't take into account what happens to the water after the wave breaks. Post-break eddy forms and the turbulence created via the breaking is mostly unresearched. Understandably, it might be difficult to glean predictable results from the ocean.

After the tip of the wave overturns and the jet collapses, it creates a very coherent and defined horizontal vortex. The plunging breakers create secondary eddies down the face of the wave. Small horizontal random eddies that form on the sides of the wave suggest that, perhaps, prior to breaking, the water's velocity is more or less two dimensional. This becomes three dimensional upon breaking.

Additionally, I notice that the Market moves in monthly cycles, similar to woman's menstrual cycle. Have you even listened to a woman describe her cycle and how the roller coaster ride of oestrogen during the month manifests as emotional highs and lows? I noticed that I endured the same emotional swings in the market, usually questioning myself at the lows when I'm losing money.

Well, its true anyway. The big date for options expiration is monthly options eX, the third friday of every month. This is the "egg dropping" if you will...The low in hormones. Then the following Monday starts a new cycle, rinse and repeat. Hormone level starts to rise again, and whatever rally we're allotted to, is clear to continue.

Some months are particularly bloody. Don't take my word for it, pull up a 20 year chart of NQ with OptEx time frame. So with this month being a bloody month, we have at least until the 19th for the wave to finish breaking.

Now the question is, am I a maniac, or is this really what Ivey Leaguers should be studying?

themickey · Mar 8, 2021

niko79542 said:
Its funny cause the market moves like waves crashing on the beach. Especially due to its energy, I see the Nasdaq trading like a wave that has just broke (in February). What happens after the break? Just like the ocean, we don't know. But the energy gets dispersed (Read: call premiums dry up), and we get these smaller secondary and tertiary waves of energy crashing on the shore.

Here's an excerpt from wikipedia page on Breaking Waves.

Additionally, I notice that the Market moves in monthly cycles, similar to woman's menstrual cycle. Have you even listened to a woman describe her cycle and how the roller coaster ride of oestrogen during the month manifests as emotional highs and lows? I noticed that I endured the same emotional swings in the market, usually questioning myself at the lows when I'm losing money.

Well, its true anyway. The big date for options expiration is monthly options eX, the third friday of every month. This is the "egg dropping" if you will...The low in hormones. Then the following Monday starts a new cycle, rinse and repeat. Hormone level starts to rise again, and whatever rally we're allotted to, is clear to continue.

Some months are particularly bloody. Don't take my word for it, pull up a 20 year chart of NQ with OptEx time frame. So with this month being a bloody month, we have at least until the 19th for the wave to finish breaking.

Now the question is, am I a maniac, or is this really what Ivey Leaguers should be studying?

Its funny cause the market moves like waves crashing on the beach. Especially due to its energy, I see the Nasdaq trading like a wave that has just broke (in February).....

Yes but strange waves, more like unpredictable random waves. Easy to see after the fact, difficult for the best brains (even those studying finance or markets) to see before the fact.
The problem with these waves, they usually are fun but without warning one comes along full of jellyfish and sharks.
There are other waves carrying a pretty thing who wants to take you home (fun with benefits) but alas will too in due course clean out your bank account.

themickey · Mar 9, 2021

Expecting a bounce up US Tuesday, will see how serious a bounce when mkt closes again.
With witching this month, will stay sidelined, not expecting to re enter though in the foreseeable future. In the meantime am sitting on a number of gold + silver stocks and some pennys.

Pricechange · Mar 9, 2021

There are some amazing, skilled traders on this form that catch large waves and skillfully ride the crest...all the way down through the tube and out the other side ..fully in front of the crashing motion...they paddle out and do it all over again,... and again.

deepfkvalue · Mar 15, 2021

I'm betting money that it's only a 10% correction, QQQ will continue to rebound and hit new all time highs by end of April.

treeman · Mar 15, 2021

Nothing bearish about this posture (only NDX hasn't cleared yet, but XLK has. XLF never even noticed the pullback)-
https://schrts.co/PFrRIsqf

Sometimes the things you're looking for are right in front of you. Don't confuse the top of the page with resistance.

murray t turtle · Mar 15, 2021

themickey said:
Saturday spent hours looking at the landscape and the conclusion I arrived at....
The sea looks calm and the lights shine brightly but man the life boats.....
View attachment 253922

View attachment 253923
.....before you arrive at this situation.

So I've changed my mind, we've seen the top.
View attachment 253924

But please keep buying, I need to offload more positions.

%%
Vanguard VOO looks much better/but its not gained what your chart has. NOT in VOO, its priced cheaper than spy, but all my charts are in spy....................................................
QQQ looks terrible on one month chart/but qqqq + TQQQ are looking good on 1 year+ 3 year + most any other time frame........................................................................................
NOT suitable for all traders/investors

. Sold some ETFs + .223 Remington+ .30-06 empty brass.[I asked a friend of mine about her monthly cycle+ she got real cold like global cooling/LOL now , but nor funny then :caution:

]

I Bailed

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