I Bailed

[Nine_Ender]

Yes agreed re news bias / influence but I'm thinking this way....
I'm currently sitting on a bunch of namely gold positions which are underwater. However gold has taken a large hit last few months, sold off harder than anything else.
So in a way if anything has upside potential it's gold. (Fingers crossed).

We are coming into April now - "in May go away".
I'm not in the mood to be exposing myself to additional risk considering (a) gold has already done some damage so I'm not going to add anymore gold positions (b) I've done well with fintechs, Lithium and other positions which I sold just recently, they seem a bit toppy atm still, bottom fishing is my preferred method, not top fishing. (c) conflicting signals atm, it feels like a bearish mkt but Friday was bullish - therefore I'm pulled in two directions. (d) If the mkt goes bullish I should make money on some good potential penny's I'm holding plus maybe the gold (e) If the mkt turns bearish I'm going to be reasonably safe as I have dry powder sitting in the vault - not exposed to mkt.

I think the week ahead will probably be bullish but I prefer longer holding than a week.

I remain in the commodities space and require some clarity on current levels. Carrying 15-25% cash into each day has been best policy this month for me. Any time I deviated from that it prevented me from taking advantage of some rather obvious day trades and/or to minimize my losses on the down days. I'm up just under 2% in March but it's been an uneasy month too much volatility.

 

[themickey]

I lightened up on some infrastructure plays earlier in the week when it looked like we were rolling over, and then Wed/Thur got back in with even more shares. Glad I did. Some were up HUGE!

CMC
NUE
VLO
SCHN
STLD
XME
XLE
OXY.WS

Mmmmm, ok, a steel bias and a couple of energy's, nice move!
On the ASX there's only 1 steel stock, Bluescope but the horse has bolted, was $9 a year ago, now +$19. Bluescope were spun off from BHP and have 4 outlets in USA as well as mills in Aust. & NZ.

 

[themickey]

ASX on open today was green but volumes were subdued as well as the opening price range.
I look at live data on a range of stocks on IRESS.
ASX is now turning red 2 hours after the open, I notice USA Futures also red.
So, although Friday was showing bullishness it hasn't translated into Monday opening here.
Mondays are usually amongst the better days on ASX as against Fridays usually not so good.
I've found it pays to let the mkt run a few hours to get an idea on sentiment, for example if a trader had jumped in immediately on open today they might be regretting it now.
Little dummy rallies like we saw on Friday are like fools gold, they get the heart racing but our lover (the mkt) often jilts us.

Here's my mkt lover talking to me when I get jilted.

Fortunately today I was not sucked into temptation.

 

[themickey]

.....
I'm not in the mood to be exposing myself to additional risk considering (a) gold has already done some damage so I'm not going to add anymore gold positions (b) I've done well with fintechs, Lithium and other positions which I sold just recently, they seem a bit toppy atm still, bottom fishing is my preferred method, not top fishing......

Couldn't help myself....took a bite on this one, in at $0.84, they're into antibacteria products.

 

[themickey]

Saturday spent hours looking at the landscape and the conclusion I arrived at....
The sea looks calm and the lights shine brightly but man the life boats.....
View attachment 253922

View attachment 253923
.....before you arrive at this situation.

So I've changed my mind, we've seen the top.
View attachment 253924

But please keep buying, I need to offload more positions.

We are now in the month of May, looking at Total Stock Market ETF Vanguard (VTI), last month was a reasonably strong one.

How much more can we stretch this thing?

 

[vincentnyc]

Today I jumped, not 100%, still holding Gold and Silver as I've become a bagholder unfortunately with this sector. I got trapped with that sudden reversal early January.

But dumped holdings in Fintechs, Lithium, Nickel stocks, Security software and Sportsbetting.

Have kept some positions on computerchips and a couple of penny fintechs.
Also kept some bibs and bobs misc penny stocks.

Atm am partucularly short term bearish technology stocks, battery metals, fintechs and mkt in general.
I think risk is building but I'm not calling a dramatic top as such, bit early for calling anything like a top, but making money for longs going forward might be an uphill battle.
View attachment 253681

u were in the wrong type of metal for this month for going long: gld. try vale or fcx instead.

 

[Nine_Ender]

u were in the wrong type of metal for this month for going long: gld. try vale or fcx instead.

A little late for this advice imo the copper companies have been running hard some can easily pull back some soon. Gold/Silver on the other hand have made an interesting move now that the mining stocks haven't really responded to yet. I think keep your hands in both and be ready to pivot if the commodity price trends change.

 

[themickey]

u were in the wrong type of metal for this month for going long: gld. try vale or fcx instead.

Ya, gold and silver both a difficult commodity to trade and get direction right, had to live through the drawdown which looks to be ending now.
My intention is to try and capture the next run, then give gold the flick for good.
If I recall there's over 100 gold stocks listed on ASX, so that will certainly cull my potential tradeable contenders.
I cant trade VALE & FCX, different exchange and dont want to mess up my method because it pulls me into another tax juristiction.

 

[themickey]

Here's a comparison of Newmont vs QQQ (green), 20 Yr.
Look at the size of drawdowns.

Gold cash vs QQQ (green)

 

[Nine_Ender]

Here's a comparison of Newmont vs QQQ (green), 20 Yr.
Look at the size of drawdowns.

Gold, oil are highly cyclical you always have to be aware of where you are in the cycle. What is interesting ( especially in Canada ) is that when they sell off they get ridiculously cheap. Gold miners were extremely good from March-August, and have been mediocre to bad since. However, Cdn energy was almost as bad September-October and since then it's been the best NA sector to be in. Many stocks have doubled since October ( some tripled ).