How do you determine trend direction?

Laissez Faire said:
What's the trend on this chart?
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Sorry, are you asking that as a quiz, or are you just looking for opinions?

And regarding the thread's question, doesn't anyone use Dow Theory(even applied to intraday charts) and old school TA anymore to identify trends and to trade within them?
 
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learner2007 said:
Sorry, are you asking that as a quiz, or are you just looking for opinions?

And regarding the thread's question, doesn't anyone use Dow Theory(even applied to intraday charts) and old school TA anymore to identify trends and to trade within them?
More...

I suspect many may fade opening gaps even if trading counter trend on the daily timeframe. Longer-term traders would prefer to trade with longer trend, but for daytrading and needing to make money every day, seems people are willing to trade almost anything. Heck, even Hamilton described intraday as "daily fluctuations" and warned against making hasty decisions.
 
Laissez Faire said:
So, are you rich from your intraday "trend-following"?
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If you start with $25,000, which is nothing for all the successful traders on ET, and you make netto 0.29% profit a day, you have in 10 years about 1 billion dollars.
So nobody on ET can apparently make 0.29% net a day.

This leads to only three possible conclusions:
  1. it is almost impossible to achieve
  2. the statement is false and not realistic in his assumptions
  3. all ET posters are losers, and should be ashamed
So saying things like " you should be the richest man on earth" or "you should own the whole world", only shows that the statement comes from somebody who has nu clue about the real financial world, or he/she is an idiot. All markets or all businesses have limitation in growing.

The man from the bakery where I buy bread should be the richest man on earth. He makes a net profit on each bread of $0.25. If he bakes 4 billion breads he will be a billionaire. But in reality he is not a billionaire, so he does not make $0.25 profit on each bread. Otherwise he would be a billionaire. That's the logic used by bashers.
 
Laissez Faire said:
So, are you rich from your intraday "trend-following"?
More...


I make a full-time living through my trading, and have now done so for several years (after several earlier years of failing to do so, as is true of many people), but with apologies I have a personal distaste for extended discussions with people whose instinctive response to any opinions they disagree with is to challenge the personal success of other discussants: I've seen too many of those conversations before; they all go a very similar way and they help nobody.

I have no difficulty at all respecting the fact that your opinion seems to be very different from mine. I'm not willing to be sucked into a problem caused by the fact that you apparently have a problem respecting the fact that mine is very different from yours.

Fortunately the forum is rather a "broad church" and there's room for each of us to express our opinions without needing to resort to personal challenges.
 
I'm still anxiously waiting to learn what the trend was on the chart I posted from the trend following crowd. :)

Sure, you can get days like these once in a while, but my experience and market statistics tells me that these days are rare.

ES 09-16 (1 Min) 29_08_2016.jpg
 
Or better yet; a snapshot of today's current chart.

What's the trend as of now? What would a trend follower do from here and to 16:00 or just the next 30 minutes?
ES 09-16 (1 Min) 30_08_2016.jpg
 
Laissez Faire said:
I'm still anxiously waiting to learn what the trend was on the chart I posted from the trend following crowd. :)
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Any response is useless. You should already know by now that whatever the explanation is, it will attract a lot of bashers turning this in a pointless discussion.

Chart 29.08. Long 72 and out at 81. No short after that as the trend was too strong, so to little potential for a good profit going short.
I will start my stopwatch now to see how long it takes before "they"arrive to tell it is fake, impossible, that I am a seller, an idiot, a faker, a pretender, etc...
But I will give no comments whatsover, I past that level of discussion already a long time ago, and don't want to make others smarter (or less stupid).
 
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I'm merely trying to illucidate the fact that for the ES intraday trend following is usually a bad idea. The chart I posted on page 4 simply had multiple up moves and down moves in sequence. There was no trend.

Other instruments may very well be suited for intraday trend following or at other time frames, but it's simply not a good idea for the ES.
 
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