How can you tell when the trend is over?

[Dollardogs]

So what makes them sell and new traders hold where they should sell?
Because personally i dont sell for one reason and its because i dont know what to look for
Im not seeing same information
As a new trader i dont even know what to look for
And when i ask here usually bunch of braindead trolls show up and comment absolute fucking nonsense that doesnt help explain anything


I can tell most of the time where the actual top of the trend is. But i cant tell if the down movement is a pullback or actual trend reversal that will continue moving down
And thats what im asking

Ask a straightforward question here and you're guaranteed to get 7 cryptic non-sequitur responses in a row that make you wonder if the person didn't even read your initial post or if they're just a poorly programmed chat bot. Get used to it. I'm focused at the moment on getting better at distinguishing a pullback from a reversal too. It's really hard. I'd recommend giving yourself chart quizzes, for example, screenshotting pieces of charts and putting them into a powerpoint so you can't cheat, and then trying to determine if it's a pullback or a reversal. I also draw the most important pullback of the stock I was trading each day into my diary and try to look for common features. Bottom line: this is a probabilistic game where you're working off semi-reliable clues so your goal should to get it right 80% of the time, knowing 60% is more likely, and even 60% takes a lot of practice. Good luck! As Speedo said above, there's no shortcut here, you gotta put in the chart time.

 

[murray t turtle]

Man, if you have to resort to using indicators or oscillators, you will never be able to pinpoint exact reversals.......

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Exactly, so dont use 'em
But pinpoints are pretty much useless in trend help;
unless its a line of pinpoints like PSAR.
Or a line of pinpoints like IBD uses 50dma+ 200dma.....................................................
I prefer lines for my moving averages, but that takes more ink + expence.
Good on topic profit points +posts

 

[s trader]

Every trader knows the trend is over at 1:00 PM everyday.

 

[Overnight]

Every trader knows the trend is over at 1:00 PM everyday.

1PM where?

 

[s trader]

Correction. The trend ends at 4:00 PM ET.

 

[murray t turtle]

Correction. The trend ends at 4:00 PM ET.

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OR 3:00 CST or some time extended hours, or sometimes in SEPT LOL.......................

 

[Fast-Simple]

Whether its a bull or a bear run
What are the signs that its about to reverse?
What should i look for?
Thats one of my biggest problems is i dont know when run is over and get stuck in trades

I dont know hot to tell a trend reversal from a small pullback

The easy way to find the end of a trend is to look historically at all the trend completions that have been made and try to find a pattern. What kinds of characteristics are present at the end of a trend?

In my experience, directional trends typically or marked by a change of strength or speed. The trend will either slow down or speed up significantly. Neutral trends or counter trends are typically marked by changes of quality, volatility, or some other change of character.

The way you tell the difference between a reversal and a pullback is to do the same thing on the next larger time frame. If the next larger time frame is not showing any sign of ending, it should be assumed that it is continuing. Therefore your current time frame is a pullback.

 

[murray t turtle]

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OR 3:00 CST or some time extended hours, or sometimes in SEPT LOL.......................

%%
LOL Repeating pattern,

 

[HawaiianIceberg]

The easy way to find the end of a trend is to look historically at all the trend completions that have been made and try to find a pattern. What kinds of characteristics are present at the end of a trend?

In my experience, directional trends typically or marked by a change of strength or speed. The trend will either slow down or speed up significantly. Neutral trends or counter trends are typically marked by changes of quality, volatility, or some other change of character.

The way you tell the difference between a reversal and a pullback is to do the same thing on the next larger time frame. If the next larger time frame is not showing any sign of ending, it should be assumed that it is continuing. Therefore your current time frame is a pullback.

Very well put. All reversals start as pullbacks - checker the higher timeframe for confirmation.

Look at the angle of the pullback/reversal segment. If it’s steeper than the previous pullback segment, it’s more likely to be the reversal.

This is what I see: in a “standard” long trend you have an up, down, up move. The first up will be largest/steepest angle, the down move (pullback) can be flat to medium angle down, and the final up move will be medium/steep up slope (but not as steep as the first up move. If it is steeper than the first, you’ll probably see an additional down and up segment.)
Then the pullback comes in at a steeper slope (more negative) that the previous retracement.

 

[Sekiyo]

He mentions …
The rate of change + volatility

Livermore and the DOW theory …
If the trend is up then a lower low is a danger signal, a lower high confirms the trend is over (If the market can’t make a new high in earnest).

Stan Weinstein …
Flattening then reversal of the 30 periods simple moving average.

Darvas & Co …
Breakdown of the box theory