Absolutely not. I can show you dozens of examples how this is not true and could easily trap someone who believes this.
How can you tell when the trend is over?
- Thread starter mute9003
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Absolutely not. I can show you dozens of examples how this is not true and could easily trap someone who believes this.
Which is why you check the higher timeframe for confirmation. If the higher timeframe quickly dies out, it’s a “trap”. Whatever timeframe you trade, there will be multiple “breakout” bars in its timeframe as well as the one above it.
what do you trade? My experience is primarily ES
reversal patterns can indicate a possible change in trends. And candle sticks can provide an insight into them.
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Excellent point; + my points are not limited to ES, which is disclosed + designed ''as a trading vehicle''
PLUS, a 2 day chart LOL + i look @ those also;
frequently has a large gap up or down, so even in a uptrending bull market for only 2 days, a gap up or down could easy continue the uptrend..
IN SEPT, sure a most any kind of gap up[steep angle or any angle] may not hold\ but that's SEPT, SPY benchmark + liquidity leader
Everything is always trending (unless it goes to zero)..., or nothing is ever trending- simply depends the TF you're referencing
Why context is one very important aspect
Once one can define it (consistently) - one can identify what its doing / or has done / or extrapolate out what it likely will do next
I said likely - there are no guarantees what price does next
RN
Why context is one very important aspect
Once one can define it (consistently) - one can identify what its doing / or has done / or extrapolate out what it likely will do next
I said likely - there are no guarantees what price does next
RN
Hey RN, how ya been
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Good points, good %.
And a good trend , or very good slowdown plenty of times, means nothing except a pause + good trend resumes.
[Of course on a short term trade ,may treat a pause much different so as not to lose a small short term profit].SEPT is a short + some times medium trend change or pause.[Stock Traders Almanac, by Hirsh]
50dma can be a good reversal area\ even though not lately LOL\ but that also is a another trend clue also.
Super trend also, can be quite different from a good trend.
Very late to the party, but one way to understand the end of a trend is to look at consolidation ranges.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/120414/how-do-i-identify-stock-under-consolidation.asp
Normally before a trend starts or ends there is a calm consolidation at certain levels, when the market breaks those levels is normally when trends start. Now, I say normally, because there are exceptions, it doesn't happen every single time.
But consolidations can be a good way to look at it.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/120414/how-do-i-identify-stock-under-consolidation.asp
Normally before a trend starts or ends there is a calm consolidation at certain levels, when the market breaks those levels is normally when trends start. Now, I say normally, because there are exceptions, it doesn't happen every single time.
But consolidations can be a good way to look at it.
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THAT's also a difference in log+ linear charts+ that angle can be deceptive in several ways.
Easy ways to disprove that angle trap.. ....A bull market is full of gap ups+ average bull uptrend lasts 3-4 years . Cant get any steeper than 4 years gap ups. Unless its 9 years of gap ups.LOL
Another deceptive way on the angle trap .
1973-74 bear on a long line chart looked like nothing much\ angle \compared to bear of 2000-2001-2002, which looked like huge killer downtrend+ steep angle in SPY[S&p500]
But due to compounding price + linear chart, same move in %, within 1%.
A 3 rd way to be trapped, on angle , is a very good trend, is much different from average trends.[Think of the occasional trend days with shallow or seldom pullbacks]
