How can you tell when the trend is over?

Trend as defined by Dow theory
An upward trend in Dow Theory is a series of successively higher peaks and troughs. A downward trend is a series of successively lower peaks and troughs.
Dow Theory Explained: What It Is and How It Works (investopedia.com)

A good source for stock trend
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:dow_theory

Using CBOE as an example, volatility often cloud trend. Don't over look timeframe.

CBOE.png
 
LOL, RSI and MACD, I remember those, used to use them, you can go directly into poor house as divergences in strong trending market can show a dozens of divergences over years. And shorter the parameter, many false signals.

Big traders and Pro's normally exit stair stepping up/down, you can see in reduction of volume as price going extreme, this better than indicators. Imho

Using 20sma flattens out, can expect change in direct, don't know if it produces retracement to add on or major reversal.

Learn to hedge for long term trades, covers your loses and learn how long to keep them, don't get married to them.

All my entries are pattern recognition, where there is a difference are patterns not in books.
 
easymon1 said:
MarkB, Handle's mention of RSI reminds me, did that wrsi divergence thing ever get backtested? Not a coder meself, but from the description it looked like it would not be slam dunk easy to code up.
More...

it's still on my desktop to do list, out of my own curiosity i will get around to it sooner than latter..
 
mute9003 said:
Whether its a bull or a bear run
What are the signs that its about to reverse?
What should i look for?
Thats one of my biggest problems is i dont know when run is over and get stuck in trades

I dont know hot to tell a trend reversal from a small pullback
More...
Here is a video that describes a chart reading technique to find the end of a trend.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top