How can you tell when the trend is over?

Let's say you have a 60% chance of determining a trend

What's your entry success rate? (relative to your stop)

maybe 60% chance? I'm giving you a very modest hit rate.

What's your overall probability like? 40% combined on a single position. if you have some skewed R:R, it'll be even worse.

This is why you scale in and out. It's like insurance policy to get into a the big trends.
 
mute9003 said:
Whether its a bull or a bear run
What are the signs that its about to reverse?
What should i look for?
Thats one of my biggest problems is i dont know when run is over and get stuck in trades

I dont know hot to tell a trend reversal from a small pullback
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I know it seems a bit simplistic, but I have observed that monitoring the slope of a medium-term moving average can be helpful in identifying trending periods and trend changes.

stocks 1-10-23-3.png
 
This is too complex a subject to do much justice in a thread like this. A trend on your primary time frame may be ending simply to form a simple or complex corrective flag on a higher time frame. That said, look for channel line breaks and subsequent tests. Look for impulse bars in the opposite direction with follow through. Trends often end with wedge patterns and ALL end with a variation of a double top or bottom...to further muddy the waters to the beginner, the DT or DB can be higher, equal or lower but the concept is the same. Additionally, an end to a trending channel can simply evolve into a trading range, it doesn't have to reverse. The range itself can be a complex flag back into the trending direction or not. There are no shortcuts to understanding price behavior, you HAVE to do the work.
 
Pick the MA that's appropriate for your chosen timeframe and if the LOD punches through that MA for 2 or 3 bars you might want to think about getting out(assuming it's a long position). If the LOD just keeps surfing that MA there's no reason to get out.
 
So what makes them sell and new traders hold where they should sell?
Because personally i dont sell for one reason and its because i dont know what to look for
Im not seeing same information
As a new trader i dont even know what to look for
And when i ask here usually bunch of braindead trolls show up and comment absolute fucking nonsense that doesnt help explain anything


I can tell most of the time where the actual top of the trend is. But i cant tell if the down movement is a pullback or actual trend reversal that will continue moving down
And thats what im asking
 
Actually there are just a few specific people who keep commenting because they think they are really good at teaching when they are really not.
You might be good at trading but that doesnt automatically make you a good teacher.
 
deaddog said:
I can't speak for everyone else but I don't know any profitable traders who can tell me where the trend will change before it actually changes.

It was you who said
so maybe you should re-examine your beliefs.
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No but we have ideas where it might end, such as measured move targets, significant S/R areas, major pivots etc.
 
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