Have we now topped . . .

[TTT]

It is at a point of equilibrium.
Wait and see.

 

[Scataphagos]

A note. Often an early sign of impending market decline is weakness in "leisure" issues. Spending on such items often the first to be sacrificed when people decide to "cut back".

Check out WYNN and MLCO.

 

[Wallace]

Tue Sep 11/18 update: added the next 'make-or-break' line - solid cyan at: 2865.000

 

[Scataphagos]

IMV, it's now possible that the bull market has run its course. It's also possible that we are still early in the "last leg up". Am less concerned about being wrong about the latter than the first.

I'd been watching for a "4th wave correction, then a final push up". Looks like the action between the January high and the early April low could have been that "4th".

As for the "last leg up".... I think it meets or is close to meeting the minimum requirements for completion. Then again some are looking for that last leg to rally the Nasdaq yet another 100% in a panic melt-up and take perhaps as long as 12-18 months. (Hard to imagine Nasdaq at 15,000.) I can see a chart argument for the first and can rationalize a fundamental argument for the second.

Then again, it's possible that we haven't yet had that "4th wave correction" I've been looking for but might be starting it soon. If that's the case, the final high in the bull run is still quite further away both in time and likely price. (The "possible 4th" I described above may not be the "4th of the 5th" at all. May actually be the "4th of the 3rd of the 5th".)

Best stay flexible for now, but there's a lot of money to be made on the downside for the courageous who get it right.

______________________________________________________________________

Here's part of the explanation as to why the market might move significantly higher over the next year or more....

1. Several other markets in decline, with weak currencies
2. $USD the "cleanest dirty shirt" among currencies
3. US interest rates in the 2-3% range while zero or negative in some other countries

Could be investors in other countries will sell out of their local securites and buy into the American equities and bond markets... a flight to quality.

That's my fundamental rationale... not clear in the charts yet, though.

FWIW....

 

[tiddlywinks]

Could be investors in other countries will sell out of their local securites and buy into the American equities and bond markets... a flight to quality.

This has been taking place for months, and continues to gain steam. Repatriation should be considered as well, as that is a two way trade as well.

I think this was recently posted elsewhere on ET, but possibly somewhere else... I don't remember.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econ...repatriation-of-offshore-profits-20180904.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econ...repatriation-of-offshore-profits-20180904.htm

 

[SunTrader]

Corporate buybacks, which started with ZIRP long before the yuuuge tax cut, have fueled this market. Not short covering.

Fed fingerprints all over it.

 

[Wallace]

where's the damn REV button ?

 

[tommcginnis]

We'll turn at 2950, and ease back to 2850.

We need earnings.
(Or, *real* China news.
A goose from Canada or the EU, even.
Just to top 2950.)

Real rise ("real" meaning, 'above 2950') won't happen til some solid earnings.
Couple of weeks!
Have faith.

(IMO...!)

 

[PistolPete]

This will come to a head , almost inevitable . Timing it the difficult part