Have we now topped . . .

[Overnight]

Overnight- there was a huge negative divergence between those 2 tops a month apart. That plus the s&p and dow were not even close to being in the same boat... it was there to fuck with us (i got sucked in for a min, buying at the new ath, before bailing pretty quickly).

Yes, I did notice how the NQ has been a bit more whacked than the two other majors in movement. But the whack was there.

I am always surprised at how everyone buys the arbitrary definition of a bear market to be 20%. That’s just a made up number that the market itself has no knowledge of. Some dude at goldman sachs (i think it was there) used it so that others could understand what he meant by a big drop. It’s been the arbitrary standard since. Not that it’s a special dividing line. 2015-2016 had more elements of being in a bear market than anyone gives credit to.

The real problem I am having with this "percentage-move" shit is that for traders, it is not the percentage move that matters, it is the number of points.

I was going to post some more detailed comparison charts about it, but everyone can do the research themselves...

Here's how many points the NQ lost during the 50% crash in 2008... Just over a thousand...

Here's how many points NQ lost in the Feb correction of 10%...Just nearly a thousand...

So 30 years ago, a 1000 point-drop was a 50% crash. Sure. But today, it is a 10% correction.

This is assuming the point values on NQ futures remain the same, and have been as they are today since the NQ future was first open for trading.

As such, a trader may be able to handle a 50% crash when a 50% drop meant the price moves only 1,000 points down. But these days, a 50% crash in NQ would mean ~3,750 points, which is ~75 grand, not just 20 grand for the 1,000 point drops of 30 years ago.

Oh, and notice something else about the comparisons...

How long did it take the first chart to recover it's losses? 4 years.

How long did it take this year? 4 months. WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[treeman]

It was missing the biggies.... size of decline, pyschological despair and duration. I never gave it a thought as to it being a bear market.

The hidden bear market of 2014-16:

- S&P 500 - Median stock -25%, ~ 80% of stocks were below their 200 dma
- Russell 2000 -27%
- Japanese Stocks -29%
- Dow Jones Transportation Average -32%
- Emerging Market stocks -40%
- Chinese stocks -49%
- Small Cap Biotech -51%
- Value Line 1700 -24%

The average stock may have hit bear market terrotory, but no magic, arbitrary -20% for the spx, and yes FANG and saleforce hung in there. So here we are in the “longest” ever bull market, which, even if true, is not a predictor of the next “bear” market.

We are in year 2 of the bull.

 

[Abundance Magnet]

and begun the descent of the other side ?

If so, what's it to be, a small Correction well above the ES 2538.75 LL, down to 2538.75, or lower, Much lower ?

markets need a push to tip them over. the push is typically some sort of catalyst. Right now the economy is strong so this is more likely a simple pull back. If impeachment occurs, tech gets heavily taxed, trade wars escalate in a crazy fashion, etc... then we've got our push. Trump seems to think he can bump the market and has linked the markets performance to his presidency. Not saying it is true, but he'll likely do his best to keep it from crashing... I don't think he is the reason the market is up but he seems to tweet that it is...

 

[mr_byte31]

I got bad losses today !
please dont say correction till i cover my positions

 

[Scataphagos]

markets need a push to tip them over. the push is typically some sort of catalyst. Right now the economy is strong so this is more likely a simple pull back. If impeachment occurs, tech gets heavily taxed, trade wars escalate in a crazy fashion, etc... then we've got our push. Trump seems to think he can bump the market and has linked the markets performance to his presidency. Not saying it is true, but he'll likely do his best to keep it from crashing... I don't think he is the reason the market is up but he seems to tweet that it is...

Trump would like the US markets to remain elevated until after the mid terms. Then, stay elevated until 2020 election. Will just have to see.

 

[MarkBrown]

yea sell everything

 

[viruscore1]

correction and typical september in play

 

[Scataphagos]

The hidden bear market of 2014-16:

- S&P 500 - Median stock -25%, ~ 80% of stocks were below their 200 dma
- Russell 2000 -27%
- Japanese Stocks -29%
- Dow Jones Transportation Average -32%
- Emerging Market stocks -40%
- Chinese stocks -49%
- Small Cap Biotech -51%
- Value Line 1700 -24%

The average stock may have hit bear market terrotory, but no magic, arbitrary -20% for the spx, and yes FANG and saleforce hung in there. So here we are in the “longest” ever bull market, which, even if true, is not a predictor of the next “bear” market.

We are in year 2 of the bull.

"A rose by any other name..."

 

[tomorton]

and begun the descent of the other side ?

If so, what's it to be, a small Correction well above the ES 2538.75 LL, down to 2538.75, or lower, Much lower ?

Even if you're right, I can't short the biggest stock market index in the world when its price is above the 50EMA and the 50EMA is sloping upwards.

 

[tomorton]

Plus, 60% of the open positions with my spreadbetting account provider are already short on the Dow.