Unwise to get bearish on the market until it actually does something bearish.
Have we now topped . . .
- Thread starter Wallace
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Unwise to get bearish on the market until it actually does something bearish.
Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead, Asks "Should We Be Worried?"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ws-crash-dead-ahead-asks-should-we-be-worried
There is some sentiment for "bear market NOW". However nobody's bearish view is definitive... market won't get bearish until the "collective" decides to get defensive.
In spite of GS's view, the market is poised according to some for a big "blow-off, melt-up" rally as mentioned prior.
The market can either do the melt-up thing or top out around here and show the current bears to be correct. So far, it has done neither.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ws-crash-dead-ahead-asks-should-we-be-worried
There is some sentiment for "bear market NOW". However nobody's bearish view is definitive... market won't get bearish until the "collective" decides to get defensive.
In spite of GS's view, the market is poised according to some for a big "blow-off, melt-up" rally as mentioned prior.
The market can either do the melt-up thing or top out around here and show the current bears to be correct. So far, it has done neither.
Of course, it depends on what is meant by crash, but for a trader who only looks at daily charts - but DOES do so daily - the danger is a sudden one day fall in the market.
So its worth remembering that 16 of the worst 20 one day falls in the Dow since 1900 occurred out of bearish, falling markets, not from bullish high prices.
So its worth remembering that 16 of the worst 20 one day falls in the Dow since 1900 occurred out of bearish, falling markets, not from bullish high prices.
I'm sure many of us are thinking of a "crash" as a "one-two day event, followed by immediate recovery". May not be that at all. May be a crash to start the big, lasting decline. Nothing like a big spike to trap traders on the wrong side.
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True; but SEPT is red apple selling season , apple prices go.tend to trend down// huge harvest SEPT. Small caps are trending UP better this week than tek. NOT a prediction.
There's a lot of well informed posts in this thread stating in a way that's it's a new paradigm. Perhaps we really did have a short bear market and this is a fresh run. Perhaps we will have another last leg up. Perhaps that US equities have outperformed will lead them to outperform longer still.
What I make of this is that we've reached a new bullish paradigm despite the fact that the last correction the ES had happened in a week and has been taking almost a year to recover from. When that last happened in 2015 the world expected a crash and the almighty Fed eased rates, China bailed out it's economy and the market held the low it had just made. It's worrisome sentiment would diverge from price.
If I see the ES hold the low it made last February and the fundamental factors that have investors selling at the moment alleviate I'll buy. Until then cash is king.
And going short? I'd have to know it's a a bear market first.
What I make of this is that we've reached a new bullish paradigm despite the fact that the last correction the ES had happened in a week and has been taking almost a year to recover from. When that last happened in 2015 the world expected a crash and the almighty Fed eased rates, China bailed out it's economy and the market held the low it had just made. It's worrisome sentiment would diverge from price.
If I see the ES hold the low it made last February and the fundamental factors that have investors selling at the moment alleviate I'll buy. Until then cash is king.
And going short? I'd have to know it's a a bear market first.