Have we now topped . . .
- Thread starter Wallace
- Start date
IMV, it's now possible that the bull market has run its course. It's also possible that we are still early in the "last leg up". Am less concerned about being wrong about the latter than the first.
I'd been watching for a "4th wave correction, then a final push up". Looks like the action between the January high and the early April low could have been that "4th".
As for the "last leg up".... I think it meets or is close to meeting the minimum requirements for completion. Then again some are looking for that last leg to rally the Nasdaq yet another 100% in a panic melt-up and take perhaps as long as 12-18 months. (Hard to imagine Nasdaq at 15,000.) I can see a chart argument for the first and can rationalize a fundamental argument for the second.
Then again, it's possible that we haven't yet had that "4th wave correction" I've been looking for but might be starting it soon. If that's the case, the final high in the bull run is still quite further away both in time and likely price. (The "possible 4th" I described above may not be the "4th of the 5th" at all. May actually be the "4th of the 3rd of the 5th".)
Best stay flexible for now, but there's a lot of money to be made on the downside for the courageous who get it right.
I'd been watching for a "4th wave correction, then a final push up". Looks like the action between the January high and the early April low could have been that "4th".
As for the "last leg up".... I think it meets or is close to meeting the minimum requirements for completion. Then again some are looking for that last leg to rally the Nasdaq yet another 100% in a panic melt-up and take perhaps as long as 12-18 months. (Hard to imagine Nasdaq at 15,000.) I can see a chart argument for the first and can rationalize a fundamental argument for the second.
Then again, it's possible that we haven't yet had that "4th wave correction" I've been looking for but might be starting it soon. If that's the case, the final high in the bull run is still quite further away both in time and likely price. (The "possible 4th" I described above may not be the "4th of the 5th" at all. May actually be the "4th of the 3rd of the 5th".)
Best stay flexible for now, but there's a lot of money to be made on the downside for the courageous who get it right.
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"Earnings, anyone?"
Mr. Market pats his belly, sez "Ohhhh, I'm good for a bit."
3850 to 2950 for (approximately) the next two months.
Mr. Market pats his belly, sez "Ohhhh, I'm good for a bit."
3850 to 2950 for (approximately) the next two months.
You know what was hard for me to imagine? After the NASDAQ's 10% correction in February, that it would recover back the entire 10% and then a bit more in 30 days, and then have another 10% correction over the next month, and then recover it all back in 2 months, by June. WTF was with that? lol
Shaking out the weak hands??
Are you old enough to remember the late, great Ed Hart? He once said, "better to be a month early than a day late".
I think the tickle down will not totally occur for 1-2 years of corporations to start doing something with all they now keep from 35 to 20% on taxes, I think unemployment is much higher than records keep as many not returned to jobs and too many are part time but advertise full time, some have 2-4 part time jobs now which means huge savings to companies not paying bennies that full time receive. I think instead of tariffs, be a foreign tax at cashier been better, Buy American in you face hard to pass up if paying higher taxes. Either a tariff or tax, always paid by the consumer anyway, it like a tax to consumer anyway you try to hide it.
Still have much room to upside considering our economy stinks right now, but it been this way for long time. Can you imagine if we really got going?
Still have much room to upside considering our economy stinks right now, but it been this way for long time. Can you imagine if we really got going?
There was a lot of talk recently about the S&P becoming the longest bull market ever. It's still quite a ways from the biggest percentage bull market. I suspect it will break that metric too before it finally ends.
The ET crowd have been shorting ES since we bottomed out after the financial crisis well below 1000. What's the rationale this time...?
I think the 'price is too high or this market has gone too far' argument isn't valid any longer.
What has fueled this market for the last years...? Have those conditions changed because the stock market made a new high last week and have retraced a bit this week?
I think the 'price is too high or this market has gone too far' argument isn't valid any longer.
What has fueled this market for the last years...? Have those conditions changed because the stock market made a new high last week and have retraced a bit this week?
US equities are outperforming every other asset class outside of oil. And it looks, to me, that oil is about to correct hard. Run all the relative charts (I realize I’m about the only one here who does that. Most here look at 1 chart and declare themselves Kreskin. Or worse, say things like: longest bull ever!). Everything else is either rolling over or has already. All markets are connected, and US stocks is where the money is, and has been, flowing. If anything else were trending up vs the spy, it would catch my attention, but nothing is (save for oil).
That’s 1 of many reasons. I’d give more, but I’m convinced I’m wasting my energies anyhow. People believe what they want to believe.
That’s 1 of many reasons. I’d give more, but I’m convinced I’m wasting my energies anyhow. People believe what they want to believe.