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Go futures go!
- Thread starter EqtTrdr
- Start date
very true cat is the pulse of the economy and so is dismal gm. goog is a very very small company. and remember much of googs business is being taken from msft and yhoo. bottom line gdp growth is horrid and there's no way earnings can keep this up. i suspect early in 2007 we'll look back ont his period and laugh as it will be evident this was the top in e arnings. but till then party on
Quote from joeyata1:
very true cat is the pulse of the economy and so is dismal gm. goog is a very very small company. and remember much of googs business is being taken from msft and yhoo. bottom line gdp growth is horrid and there's no way earnings can keep this up. i suspect early in 2007 we'll look back ont his period and laugh as it will be evident this was the top in e arnings. but till then party on
true about goog taking away market share from MSFT and YHOO...GOOGLE isnt a guage of where the economy is headed. They are a search engine. Yea they had great earnings but when you see CAT down 10 bucks I think that is more serious than GOOG being up 30 bucks...
Quote from S2007S:
true about goog taking away market share from MSFT and YHOO...GOOGLE isnt a guage of where the economy is headed. They are a search engine. Yea they had great earnings but when you see CAT down 10 bucks I think that is more serious than GOOG being up 30 bucks...
My point about bringing up other earnings was not to make an argument that they are more important then CAT it's to make the point that it doesn't matter. The market is forward looking. Trade what you see, not based on your fundamental macro outlook. I love it when guys are short and they go from trading ticks to suddenly having a long term position. LOL. It's usually not a good time to short when markets are making new all time highs. LOL.
Quote from joeyata1:
very true cat is the pulse of the economy and so is dismal gm. goog is a very very small company. and remember much of googs business is being taken from msft and yhoo. bottom line gdp growth is horrid and there's no way earnings can keep this up. i suspect early in 2007 we'll look back ont his period and laugh as it will be evident this was the top in e arnings. but till then party on
I would argue that GE is the pulse of the economy, not CAT. Here is what GE had to say on their earnings report:
"It was a strong quarter for GE. Their environment is solid, global infrastructure spending is up, emerging market growth is strong, and the US consumer is strong. Inflation and interest rate are there, but are factored in. Plastics hasn't been able to offset inflation, however. GE is looking to improve on that next year. Again, the overall environment is very strong for GE.
There are five key performance metrics, and all of them show improvement and growth. Revenue was up, assets were up, earnings per share were up, return on capital was up, and margins were all up."
well then 2.6% gdp last qtr and est's for 2% this qtr is a mirage? cat's products go into a vast majority of area's. i mean ge's earnings are growing at what 4 or 5%. cat's earnings were on fire and it shows a pullback of some major proportions is starting. this 4 plus year upswing is getting long in the tooth is all i'm saying. all iran has to do is start some real crap and oils back to $80 and this conversation about wether earnings are good or not is moot. i've been doing this 18 years and i can't remember a market so steady with so little volatility to the downside for so long and the 10 plus vix backs that up. its almsot like you know 100% the market can't hurt you can at some pt its going to come back to bite but that could be next week or next year
Quote from joeyata1:
well then 2.6% gdp last qtr and est's for 2% this qtr is a mirage? cat's products go into a vast majority of area's. i mean ge's earnings are growing at what 4 or 5%. cat's earnings were on fire and it shows a pullback of some major proportions is starting. this 4 plus year upswing is getting long in the tooth is all i'm saying. all iran has to do is start some real crap and oils back to $80 and this conversation about wether earnings are good or not is moot. i've been doing this 18 years and i can't remember a market so steady with so little volatility to the downside for so long and the 10 plus vix backs that up. its almost like you know 100% the market can't hurt you can at some pt its going to come back to bite but that could be next week or next year
Joey, I'm not trying to knock your analysis. You said you have never seen such a move or such a market. Maybe you took 2003 off. Pull it a chart and look at the SP 500 from March or so of 2003 to the end of the year. It went up in a straight line. The vix actually traded below 10 for the first time ever and there was nothing but doom and gloom. The Iraq war was going poorly, interest rates were going up every meeting, inflation was rising sharply and consumer confidence was not doing well. Not to mention all the corporate scandals going on that year.
We went from 800 to 1150 before moving sideways for a while. Obviously since then, we have added another 200 plus handles. All I'm saying is, all you have to do is go back 3 years. We had the exact same market.
Could it end badly next year? Of course it could. Absolutely. But why not wait for this market to actually start breaking down. You are not going to miss anything. Wait for this market to actually make a few lower lows and lower highs. Come on man, you don't need the top tick. The top tick is usually the most expensive to get in the pocketbook. All I'm asking you to do is have some perspective.